by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – August 17, 2020
Remember when political parties mattered? You don’t have to journey that far back in time. Arguably, to just before 2016.
That was the year when Donald Trump, who spent most of his life outside the Republican Party, seized control of the GOP, and Bernie Sanders, a socialist who was not a Democrat, nearly grabbed control of the Democratic Party. Many would argue that Sanders did gain the socialist hearts of Democrats.
So, maybe it’s fitting that during the COVID-19 pandemic, party conventions in 2020 are virtual affairs, with Republicans celebrating their relatively newfound populist nonsense and Democrats coming to terms with their socialist nonsense.
The Democrats were supposed to meet in Milwaukee, but now they’ll be serving up speeches this week (from August 17 to 20) virtually. As for the Republicans, it has been fittingly confusing. That is, the GOP convention was originally planned for Charlotte, North Carolina. But President Trump moved it to Jacksonville, Florida, when North Carolina’s government officials declined to allow for a large gathering amidst the coronavirus. But then the same thing basically happened in Florida, so Republicans, too, will be partying remotely from August 24 to August 27.
What do the polls look like heading into this virtual convention season?
According to national polls released so far in August, Democrat Joe Biden leads in all of them against Republican Donald Trump, ranging from as few as four percentage points, and therefore within the margin of error, to as many as 11 points. Biden’s numbers come in as low as 44 percent to as high as 54 percent, while Trump ranges from 40 percent to 46 percent.
By the way, it’s worth noting that Biden apparently didn’t receive any boost in national polling after selecting Kamala Harris as his running mate.
But what’s happening in the battleground states?
Arizona is a toss-up, with three of the latest four polls showing Biden up by 1 to 4 points, and the other poll putting Trump up by a point.
In Florida, polls show Biden holding a consistent, small lead, and coming in with at least 50 percent of those polled.
As for Michigan, Trump consistently trails Biden by anywhere from 4 to 11 percentage points in recent polling. But a key point is that Trump has been unable to push above 43 percent since mid-June.
The trend is more hopeful for the president in Minnesota. He had trailed Biden by large margins, but they have closed, with the latest polls pointing to Biden being up by 3-5 points.
Matters have improved some for Trump in North Carolina as well in the latest polling. The race is effectively tied in the state.
However, Pennsylvania stands out as a huge challenge for President Trump, with Biden leading in every poll and by notable margins.
And the numbers remain positive for Biden in Wisconsin, with the latest surveys basically putting Biden around 50 percent and Trump in the low 40s.
As for other battleground states, we haven’t seen a poll from Ohio since July. The two latest surveys put Biden slightly ahead, but in effect, it looks like a dead heat.
A poll released early this month put Trump up slightly in Iowa, but again, that state ranks as a dead heat.
And out of the two August polls from Georgia, one put Trump up narrowly, and the other Biden. The race in Georgia, therefore, rates as a dead heat – and that’s troubling for the president given the state’s normal Republican leanings.
The latest polls we have from New Hampshire, Maine and Virginia came in late July, and Biden was up big in each state.
Finally, the August polls out so far have Trump ahead in Texas by 6 to 7 points. Polls throughout June and July had the race as an effective dead heat in this very Republican state.
As noted in my last rundown on the White House race, everything narrowly broke Trump’s way in 2016. He took Pennsylvania 48.2 percent to 47.5 percent; Michigan 47.3 percent to 47.0 percent; and Wisconsin 47.2 percent to 46.5 percent. For good measure, Trump won Florida by only 48.6 percent to 47.4 percent.
If the election were held today, President Trump would likely lose each of these states, with Arizona, Georgia, Iowa, Ohio and North Carolina – each of which he won in 2016 – at risk of going to Biden as well.
Well, will the virtual conventions matter? Probably not much. The only outcome that could matter would be Biden fumbling his speech in some notable way. Barring that, the 2020 conventions promise to matter even less than the typical conventions of recent years. Again, that’s fitting given the state of political parties today.
Meanwhile, the poll number that ranked as most interesting to me came from Gallup on August 14. The pollster asked: “Which best describes your view of Donald Trump and Joe Biden: Both would be a good president, neither would be a good president, only Donald Trump would be a good president (OR) only Joe Biden would be a good president?”
The pollster reported that 25 percent of Americans answered that neither would be a good president. Gallup asked the same question for the 2004, 2008 and 2012 elections, and this year’s 25 percent was the highest breakdown answering neither.
Go figure. I’m with the 25 percent, by the way.
Oh, and in case you were wondering, 5 percent of those polled said both men would be a good president. Really? Who the heck are those people?
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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating also is a novelist. His latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12th book in the series. Big sale on signed books and sets at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/book-of-the-month.
Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast
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