The COVID-19 Crisis: Our Crushed Economy

Part I of a Projected Three-Part Series

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – May 15, 2020

Make no mistake, the coronavirus pandemic and resulting government shutdowns of large parts of economy have had devastating effects across our economy, and the impact will not be quickly reversed. In fact, with misguided policymaking after COVID-19 has come under control (hopefully via vaccines and/or therapeutics), our economic ills could be further extended.

It pays to keep in mind that whenever the economy goes seriously off the rails, some kind of government action usually can be identified that either caused the mess or made it worse. In our current situation, the rapid spread of this virus, the threat to the lives of individuals, and the actual resulting deaths had their own negative consequences for the economy, and then governmental efforts – largely necessary though far from perfect (anyone who expects something even close to efficiency from government in anything doesn’t understand government) – have resulted in harsh economic consequences.

This column is not meant as an argument against what the government has done, nor as some kind of support for all that government has implemented. It’s also not meant to align with those arguing irresponsibly for an immediate, mask-less reopening of the economy with little concern, it seems, for ongoing efforts against spreading this virus. What follows is a look at key indicators describing our grim state of economic affairs.

First, real GDP (i.e., inflation-adjusted gross domestic product) in the first quarter plunged by 4.8 percent, with all major categories of economic activity declining dramatically, including consumer spending, business investment and trade. During the post-World-War-II era, there were only seven quarters when the economy declined by larger percentages.

Second, information coming in about the start of the second quarter points to an even larger drop in GDP. For example, retail sales plunged by 16.4 percent in April. That was the biggest monthly decline in a dataset going back to 1992. Industrial production – that is, the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities – tumbled by 11.2 percent in April. That was the largest monthly decline on record in an index that dates back 101 years. The drop in manufacturing production was even larger at 13.7 percent – again, biggest decline on record.

Third, jobs are disappearing at a frightening pace. Initial weekly unemployment claims over the first eight weeks of the COVID-19 crisis tallied up to 36.5 million. The story from the April employment report arguably was even worse. Perhaps most distressing was the fact that the employment-population ratio in April fell to the lowest level ever recorded in a dataset going back to 1948, plummeting from 61.1 percent in February to 60 percent in March, and then to 51.3 percent in April. 

Fourth, entrepreneurship is suffering as well. For example, the number of unincorporated self-employed individuals – an important measure of small business and startup activity – declined in April to its lowest level since January 1980. 

For good measure, the Census Bureau recently reported that business applications for tax IDs – one measure of business formation (though far from complete) – took a dive of 4.5 percent in the first quarter of this year. In addition, high-propensity business applications – which are businesses with a high likelihood to turn into businesses with payrolls – fell by 5.4 percent in April. These measures of entrepreneurial activity promise to fall further in the second quarter of this year.

Indeed, there’s nothing positive going on in the U.S. economy currently. We’re likely to see the steepest decline in economic activity during the second quarter of this year (that is, the current quarter) since the Great Depression.

After reviewing these grim numbers and trends, it’s critical to understand that these aren’t just some cold statistics detached from reality. Instead, they quantify reality. These numbers reflect or communicate real economic hardship for tens of millions of Americans across the nation. At the same time, these numbers do not negate the realities of mounting coronavirus deaths, and the understanding that the number of deaths could have been much worse, and still threaten to get worse. More on that in Part II in this series.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcastand the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #57: Declining Business Investment

Ray Keating looks look at business investment in the U.S. economy, specifically, its under-performance in recent years and heading into the coronavirus mess. Tune in at

https://www.buzzsprout.com/155969/3211534-episode-57-declining-business-investment

Is the U.S. in a Recession Right Now?

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 17, 2020

Unfortunately, with each passing day and further steps being taken by government to deal with the coronavirus/COVID-19, it becomes clearer that the U.S. is in a recession right now. Indeed, government actions – while largely necessary to limit the damage of this pandemic – have in effect shutdown significant chunks of our economy.

Yet, assorted analysts and business media keep talking about a possible recession arriving in the second quarter of this year and extending into the third quarter. But let’s keep in mind that we are still in the first quarter right now, and the economy clearly has hit the brakes.

For good measure, as I noted a week ago, contrary to what people had talked themselves into regarding the pre-coronavirus economy, growth slowed notably over the past five quarters, in which real GDP growth averaged only 2.1 percent. Most critically, real business investment declined in each of the last three quarters, and trade has been a drag on growth for two years. So, the economy wasn’t exactly roaring when we ran into the coronavirus.

Business investment now seems to be in freefall, along with trade, and toss in workers being told to stay home and commensurately reining in their spending, and it’s hard to see how a recession has not already started.

Keep in mind, by the way, that the back-of-the-envelope definition of a recession is at least two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, the official start and end dates of recessions are determined, based on an assortment of factors, by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

No one knows how the coronavirus and its effects are going to fully play out, but it seems like a safe bet to see this anti-virus effort extending into the summer, and with it, a recession – even with federal government so-called “stimulus” efforts. With little confidence, the best guess-timate from this economist is that the recession began this month, and will last into the third quarter of this year. But it also must be noted that if entrepreneurs, businesses and investors get a strong whiff of more anti-growth policymaking emerging from the November’s presidential and congressional elections, then the recession could last longer, or the threat of a double-dip recession – that is, the recession ends with a brief period of growth, followed by another downturn – looms in the distance.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York – signed booksor for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

A Coronavirus Recession Likely

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 10, 2020

Whether the coronavirus meets the worst or best of expectations in the United States, it’s difficult to see how a recession is missed – or at best, narrowly avoided with growth slowing to a crawl.

Consider that despite the happy talk – or tweets – emerging from assorted political sources, the U.S. economy has not been rocking and rolling. In fact, after some respectable growth numbers from mid-2017 through the third quarter of 2018, the economy has slowed notably since, with real GDP growth averaging only 2.1 percent over the past five quarters.

For good measure, real business investment (as well as overall private investment) has declined in the past three quarters (i.e., the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2019), and trade has been drag on the economy for the past two years.

Finally, much of economic growth over the past two-plus years has been about the consumer. However, the consumer is a follower, not a leader. Consumers take their cues from what’s going on with business. That is, if new enterprises are being started, and businesses are investing and hiring, then consumers are pleased and spending. While entrepreneurship has been lagging, businesses have been hiring. But given the recent decline in business investment and the uncertainties of the coronavirus, business investment is likely to continue to falter, in the near term, and along with it, now, hiring.

To sum up, when you look at the current status and coming months, there’s little positive to see for major sections of the U.S. economy. Private investment is likely to continue to falter (or at best stagnate), trade will continue to be a drag, and the consumer is likely to be hunkering down. That combines to spell either a recession or no growth in the short term.

Another question to ponder: Is the U.S. well-positioned from a policy standpoint so that economic growth snaps back afterwards – either later this year or into 2021? Consider that we were not positioned to do so after the last recession, and have since suffered through an under-performing recovery/expansion period since mid-2009. Quick answer? Trade policy remains anti-growth, as does government spending (with big spending increases over the last two years). Taxes generally have been a policy positive since December 2017. The regulatory story has been mixed, but overall a net plus. And monetary policy remains unhinged from economic reality, with the hope being that Fed cluelessness continues to be corrected or ignored by the private sector.

Oh yes, and then there’s this presidential and congressional election thing coming in November?

Snap back or no, then? It’s hard to tell. My best guess is that a short recession or no-growth period is followed by a short snap back, and then barring some strong pro-growth policy changes, the economy falls back into the slow-growth scenario that we’ve suffered under for too long.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.