by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – November 1, 2020
If you think this long, exhausting, painful and often-ridiculous presidential campaign between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden – two crazy, unsavory old guys – is going to be over on Tuesday night, well, I hope you’re right. But don’t be surprised if we don’t get a final call on the race until Thursday.
It also pays to keep in mind that when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S., the task before President Donald Trump wasn’t that hard. Well, it wouldn’t have been hard for almost anyone other than Mr. Trump.
The message should have been straightforward and simple. It should have gone something like this: “My fellow Americans, we need to come together to beat this pandemic. We need to care, support and look out for each other. We can do that by listening to the medical community; and by taking common sense precautions, like wearing masks and practicing social distancing. As best as we can in these troubled time, we need to support the small businesses who are the backbone of our economy. We need to show our appreciation for the people who are on the frontlines caring for others, and for those who are working hard to find effective vaccines and therapeutics. We can find strength from our respective faith communities. We need to pray for each other and for our country. The strength of this nation and our people will shine through. God bless you, and God bless America.”
If that were the consistent message from the president, as opposed to bizarre, self-promoting, conflicting, self-absorbed, dishonest, conspiracy-dabbling rants, the polls heading into Election Day likely would be quite different. After all, Americans usually aren’t too keen on changing horses in the middle of an emergency, unless that horse is erratic and cannot be trusted. For good measure, it pays to be reminded that when a president runs for re-election, the race overwhelmingly is about that incumbent.
Given these realities, what are we looking at in terms of the polls heading into this Tuesday, with the understanding that this is an unprecedented election with vast numbers -some 93 million people – having voted already?
The national polling continues to show former Vice President Joe Biden holding a rather stunning lead over President Trump. The latest polls put Biden up by 5 to 12 percentage points, with the polling averages putting Biden’s lead in the 7-to-9 points range, with Biden earning 51 percent to 52 percent of the vote. When a candidate scores about the 50 percent mark, and has a lead that large, it spells big trouble for the opponent.
But we need, of course, given what happened in 2016, to look at the presidential race in state-by-state contests, with the outcome resting in the Electoral College. So, let’s take a final look at the battleground states.
Arizona (11 electoral votes). The race is an effective dead heat, with Biden holding a slight lead.
Florida (29 electoral votes). Florida also falls into the toss-up category, with Biden, again, holding the slight edge.
Michigan (16 electoral votes). Biden holds a healthy lead in the polls – with the poll average putting him up by about eight points. Plus, Biden is pulling in above 50 percent in most polls.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes). Trump has been campaigning in the state, and as he does, the polls seem to pushing further in favor of Biden. The former vice president holds a nine-point lead in the poll average, and is coming in above 50 percent.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The state is an effective dead heat. While Biden holds a slight lead in the polling average, the latest polls are a mix of Trump or Biden being slightly ahead.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). The polling average has Biden up by five points and coming in above 50 percent of the vote. But the race remains tight.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Biden holds a solid lead of eight points among the polling average, and he is consistently running above 50 percent of those polled.
Ohio (18 electoral votes). Ohio is a toss-up, with Biden showing a slight move up. But this race is a straight-up tie.
Iowa (6 electoral votes). Iowa remains an effective dead heat, with Trump holding the slightest edge.
Georgia (16 electoral votes). Georgia is a dead heat – amazing given how Republican this state has been.
Nevada (6 electoral votes). The polling average puts Biden up by four points in Nevada. And he has held a consistent lead. But this is another tight race.
Texas (38 electoral votes). In this weird year, Texas, another traditional Republican state, remains a dead heat, with some polls putting Trump up slightly and others Biden. (See my take on Texas apparently going Purple.)
My prediction puts Biden at 342 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win. In a Blue wave scenario, that tally could go as high as 393.
No matter the outcome, like 2016, one gets the feeling that this is yet another election in which many people are voting against a candidate, rather than for one. In the end, perhaps most troubling is the unfortunate reality that whoever wins will present far more problems and negatives for the nation – though in quite different ways – rather than solutions or positives.
By the way, if anyone cares, I’ll be voting the same way I did in 2016, that is, writing in Ben Sasse for president.
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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…
“Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980”
“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”
“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”
“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”
“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”
“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”
“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”
“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”
“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”
“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
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