by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – October 12, 2020
Is Donald Trump managing to turn Texas from a solid Red State (i.e., Republican) to a Purple State (a toss-up state)? If so, that would have earth-shaking consequences for American presidential politics.
Consider that the last time Texas favored a Democrat over the Republican candidate in a presidential contest was 44 years ago in 1976. Texas has gone Republican in every race since.
And the margins of victory generally have been pretty comfortable. The exceptions were in two losing efforts by Republicans, with Texan Ross Perot factoring into the equation. George H.W. Bush earned only 40.6 percent of the Texas vote in 1992, with Bill Clinton getting 37.1 percent and Ross Perot 22 percent. In the next election (1996), Bob Dole received 48.8 percent to Clinton’s 43.8 percent and Perot at 6.8 percent.
Republicans re-established solid wins in the next four elections. In 2000, George W. Bush took 59.3 percent in his home state versus Al Gore’s 38 percent, and in 2004, it was Bush 61.1 percent to John Kerry’s 38.2 percent. And then even in losing national efforts, Republicans did well in Texas in 2008 and 2012, with John McCain beating Barack Obama 55.5 percent to 43.7 percent, and Mitt Romney defeating Obama 57.2 percent to 41.4 percent.
And then we come to 2016. Donald Trump won Texas, but only with 52.1 percent of the vote. So, Trump topped the percentages earned by Bush 41 and Dole in losing efforts in 1992 and 1996, respectively. But Trump managed the lowest tally in Texas for a Republican presidential winner since Herbert Hoover in 1928.
However, Trump’s 2016 Texas win was still quite comfortable given that Hillary Clinton only earned 43.1 percent of the state vote.
And now we’re only three weeks away from Election Day 2020, and President Trump and his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, are in a dead heat in Texas, according to the polls.
Of the Texas October polls, one has Trump up by 7 percentage points and another up by 5 points. That’s what one would expect for a Republican in Texas. However, another poll has Biden up by 2 percentage points, and another has the Democrat up by one point. And two other polls put the two candidates even.
Win or lose, Biden seems on track, at least at this point in time, to earn the largest percentage vote in Texas for any Democrat since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976.
Suddenly, Texas is competitive. That’s deeply troubling news for Republicans. After all, of the four most populous states, two are solid Blue (Democrat), i.e., California and New York, and one, Florida, has gone from leaning Republican to being a Purple State.
We’ll have a somewhat clearer picture of what’s happening in Texas after this year’s election. But even then, there will be the question as to whether a poor showing, perhaps even a loss, by Trump in Texas might be a short-term Trump effect or something more lasting for the GOP. And if Texas does in fact go Purple, that would mean that there would be no reliable Red States among at least the top dozen populous states. For Republicans, that would be a big “Yikes!”
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating’s latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club. Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship
Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast
Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.
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