by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – October 16, 2020
When a president runs for a second term, the race overwhelmingly turns out to be a referendum on the incumbent.
I’ve said this before but it bears repeating: I’d love to be able to claim that Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 was a vote for Reagan, but in reality, it was a vote against Jimmy Carter. The 1984 contest turned out to be a resounding, 49-state approval for Reagan.
So, make no mistake, this 2020 presidential contest is largely about President Donald Trump. And that’s turning out quite poorly for the president, and perhaps for Republicans in general.
On Friday (October 16) morning, pollster and focus-group guru Frank Luntz made two important points on CNBC. First, he noted that his focus groups and surveys are telling him that the voters who remain undecided regarding the Trump-Biden contest overwhelming dislike, even despise, the president as a person, but at the same time, they’re afraid of the policies of Joe Biden and the Democrats. That’s not surprising. After all a large swath of the nation seems to fall into this category. Second, Luntz noted that, historically, those who remain undecided close to the vote, break two-thirds for the challenger.
When you look at where the polls are today, none of this is good news for Trump.
While Trump consistently trailed Hillary Clinton in the national polling in 2016, those polls overwhelmingly were within the margin of error. Also, when you look at the polling averages, Clinton’s average percentage never touched 50 percent over the seven-plus months leading up to Election Day. Coming down the stretch, Clinton’s average ran between 46 percent and 48 percent, and Trump’s between 42 percent and 45 percent. The final outcome? Clinton won 46.8 percent versus Trump’s 43.6 percent. The national polls nailed the popular vote.
This year, in recent weeks, polling averages have Biden running between 49 percent and 52 percent, with Trump down at 42 percent to 43 percent. Barring some bizarre occurrence – like Joe Biden during the last debate screaming, “Get the squirrels off me!” – that would seem to be an insurmountable lead.
But as many people learned in 2016, the presidential race actually is a state-by-state contest, decided in the Electoral College. So, let’s update our look at the battleground states.
Arizona (11 electoral votes). The most reliable recent polls put Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points, with Biden running in the 49 percent to 51 percent range.
Florida (29 electoral votes). Florida still falls into the toss-up category. But most recent polls have Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 points. However, one poll puts the two in a tie, and another has Trump up by 2 points.
Michigan (16 electoral votes). The recent polls overwhelmingly show Biden widening his lead in the state, generally possessing a 6-to-9 percentage point lead. However, one recent outlier puts Trump up by 1 point, that is, a dead heat.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes). The recent polls show Biden holding a consistent lead.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The state now leans slightly toward Biden, with polls ranging from a dead heat to Biden up by 6 percentage points.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). While Biden holds a consistent lead in Pennsylvania, depending on the poll, the race is either very close or Biden holds a comfortable lead. Indeed, the president’s been hanging tough in this state.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Biden continues to look strong in Wisconsin, with a lead stretching out as far as 10 percentage points. Although one poll puts the race within the margin of error.
Ohio (18 electoral votes). The latest polls show an effective dead heat in Ohio, with Trump holding a slight edge. The polls range from Biden being up by one point to Trump being up by 3 points.
Iowa (6 electoral votes). While Iowa is an effective dead heat, the recent polls show things leaning ever so slightly toward Trump, with him holding leads from 1 to 6 points.
Georgia (16 electoral votes). It’s rather stunning to look at the polls in Georgia. The race in this normally safe Republican state range from Trump having a 2 point lead to Biden holding a lead of 7 points.
Nevada (6 electoral votes). The latest reliable polls show Biden holding an edge anywhere from 2 to 6 points. The far less reliable polls show him with a bigger lead.
Texas (38 electoral votes). Amazingly, Texas, normally Republican country, stands as a dead heat, with the latest polls ranging from Biden being up by 2 points to Trump up by 7 points. (See my take on Texas apparently going Purple.)
Alaska (3 electoral votes). Here’s another bizarre item: The lone reliable poll served up in Alaska recently put Trump up 45 percent to Biden’s 39 percent. However, that’s within the poll’s margin of error. Now, I don’t expect Trump to lose Alaska, but Biden within the margin of error speaks to the broader troubles that Republicans are facing.
Right now, a worst case scenario for Joe Biden would give Biden 304 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win. In a Blue wave scenario, that tally could go as high as 393.
And when Republicans have to spend time and money in Georgia and in Texas that spells big trouble for Trump and his party.
It’s worth noting the comments revealed in the media made by U.S. Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) to town hall with constituents. According to a report from the New York Times, when asked about why he’s so hard on Trump, Sasse unloaded on Trump, hitting him on a wide array of issues. That included Sasse warning, “We are staring down the barrel of a blue tsunami.”
The polling data point to Trump being toast. The real question appears to be: How bad will it be for Republicans in general?
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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…
“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”
“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”
“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”
“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”
“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”
“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”
“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”
“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”
“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating’s latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club. Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship
Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast
Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.
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