For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...
Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Biden. Show all posts

Friday, June 25, 2021

Biden-omics: True Trickle-Down

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – June 25, 2021

 

The phrase “trickle-down economics” gained prominence as a derogatory phrase hurled at supply-side economic policies of the 1980s by political opponents of President Ronald Reagan. However, it actually has a longer history, going back at least to the 1920s, again, as a way of attacking supply-side-oriented policies.



The trickle-down slur meant that across-the-board tax cuts benefited the wealthy at the expense of others, with perhaps a few benefits eventually trickling down to lower income groups. 

 

The trickle-down attack gets dragged out time and again by those opposing tax relief and/or arguing for higher tax rates. For example, one member of a group of high-income individuals looking to raise taxes on themselves and other wealthy people, asserted in a recent op-ed at TheHill.com (“Why Biden's proposed marginal tax rate increase isn't enough”) that the “Reagan-era tax cuts and trickle-down economics … led to the massive income inequality that we see today.” How so? Well, that’s not explained, it’s just merely asserted.

 

I always find wealthy people who want to pay more in taxes, and demand that other high-income individuals pay more, interesting. Why? It’s clear that they love the idea of large government in a simple-minded way, while failing to grasp economic realities. For example, they completely miss the economic fact that wealthy individuals who invest or spend their own money will do far more for others than if those dollars were handed over to politicians and their appointees. 

 

Think about it. Wealthy individuals have the resources to invest in new and/or growing businesses, and in turn, in creating goods and services desired or needed by others and employing people.

 

But what about the rich person who simply spends his money on forms of conspicuous consumption, like buying a bigger yacht? Well, who builds those yachts, and supplies the various materials and parts that go into such yachts? That’s right, it’s people up and down the income scale, including small business owners and their employees.

 

Indeed, high-income earners play a crucial role in the economy by accumulating wealth and thereby being able to invest in entrepreneurs, ideas and businesses, and therefore, in the investments, technologies and innovations that drive productivity, income and job growth. That’s not trickle-down economics. That’s just economics.

 

Meanwhile, raising taxes on upper-income earners in the hopes that government, run by politicians, will do something positive with tax dollars amounts to little more than going to the racetrack and putting a big wad down on longshots all day long. It’s gambling, with probably fewer payoffs than at the track.

 

After all, the incentives at work in government are not conducive to positive, productive outcomes. Politicians and bureaucrats spend other people’s money on programs and projects rooted in political incentives, and special-interest pressures and lobbying. For good measure, when something fails in government, the most likely result is that such failure is rewarded with more money and a larger staff. 

 

Indeed, when you actually think about how government works, those who push for higher taxes and increased government spending – two central points of the Biden economic agenda – are engaging in true trickle-down economics. That is, dollars are sucked away from productive private-sector enterprises, handed over to politicians and their appointees, and one is left hoping that the economic damage will be limited, and that some sort of benefits might trickle down to the individuals that politicians presume to be helping. That’s all about politics, with little evidence of any economic thinking occurring.

 

In the end, supply-side economics is about providing relief from government burdens – such as through lower tax rates, reduced regulation and free trade – so that entrepreneurship, investment, and economic, income and employment growth can flourish. That’s the antithesis of trickle-down economics, or to use a different phrase, the antithesis of Biden-omics. 

 

_________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  Keating has three new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.comPast Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.comAnd the 15th book in the seriesWhat’s Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is available, again, at Amazon.comand signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of DisneyFree Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Wednesday, March 10, 2021

The Church Has a Limited But Critical Role in Politics

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 9, 2021

 

Author’s Note: The more things change, the more they stay the same. The debate about religion and politics has raged on for centuries; and in the U.S., many of the details can stay remarkably consistent over years or even decades. The following column, which is included in my book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York (2020), first appeared in Newsday in October 2004. John Kerry is mentioned, but one can easily replace his name with “Joe Biden.” However, added to the story in more recent times would be the descent among certain factions within “conservative” Christianity into a bizarre quasi-worship of Donald Trump, including a defend-him-no-matter-what-he-does-or-says lack of discernment. In the end, as explained below, politics is not supposed to inform the Church. To the contrary, the Church primarily should be focused on teaching the world and the faithful, who then, with informed consciences, engage the political arena. Fortunately, at the time of this writing, I was able to interview three well-reasoned members of the clergy, including the now-late Father Richard John Neuhaus.

 

Mixing religion and politics can spark controversy. Nonetheless, church leaders have a moral obligation to speak out on certain issues. So, faith and politics will, at times, intersect. But what constitutes the church’s proper role? 



Consider two recent examples. As Newsday reported last week, Revs. Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton appeared with Democrat John Kerry at the Friendship Missionary Baptist Church in Miami, Florida. Some 300 parishioners, flapping “Kerry-Edwards” fans, were urged to vote for the Massachusetts senator. 

 

Meanwhile, various Roman Catholic bishops have raised questions about the moral legitimacy of voting for a candidate favoring abortion and embryonic stem cell research. Kerry, who is a Catholic, has a staunchly pro- abortion record, and calls for significant taxpayer funding for the kind of stem cell research that destroys human embryos. 

 

I spoke with three local members of the clergy last week – one Lutheran, one Anglican and one Catholic. Each offered remarkably similar assessments on the church’s appropriate place in the public square. 

 

Pastor John Fleischmann of Christ Lutheran Church in East Moriches noted that the church’s job is to be “clear about things the Scripture says are right and wrong.” The Rev. Randolph Jon Geminder, an Anglican priest at St. Mary’s Church in Amityville, declared: “All we can do is exhort our people to implement the moral teachings that we’ve given them when they make an informed choice.” 

 

The Rev. Richard John Neuhaus is a Catholic priest, editor-in-chief of First Things magazine located in New York City, and has written extensively on the church and politics. He agreed: “The responsibility of the church is to encourage and educate its own people with respect to the great moral questions of our time. Then it is up to the people to reflect upon this and to form their conscience according to the truth taught by the church and then to act” in the political arena. 

 

Each also saw risks of getting too political. Father Geminder noted that by getting “so wrapped up in the minutiae of politics, we can lose our entire focus of why we’re here.” Father Neuhaus worried about compromising “the moral integrity of religion when you hitch it to a very specific partisan agenda.” 

 

A candidate speaking from the pulpit and distributing campaign materials in church clearly rank as partisan, and the church risks being cheapened. 

 

What about the issues? Holy Scripture, church teachings and moral reason clearly support speaking out strongly against abortion, human embryonic stem cell research and cloning, euthanasia, and same-sex marriage. These are foundational, biblical values for which there should be little or no room for disagreement within Christianity. 

 

Other issues have significant moral implications, but people of good conscience can disagree. For example, some Christians oppose the death penalty, while others note that it is allowed in both the Old and New Testaments. War also can split views among people of faith. 

 

Meanwhile, some churches make proclamations or lobby on issues distant from their mission and where they lack expertise. For example, churches embracing “social justice” or the “social gospel” often will use broad biblical declarations to endorse a very specific liberal, secular agenda, including a higher minimum wage, antitrust regulation, Medicare, Medicaid, climate issues, affirmative action, or even Internet access. Such going astray can weaken the church’s moral authority when it’s truly needed. 

 

In the end, the Christian Church’s mission is as Jesus commanded: “Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, teaching them to observe all that I have commanded you.” (Matthew 28:19-20) Perhaps some of the churches or clergy who enthusiastically embrace a secular political agenda simply find this “Great Commission” uninteresting or unconvincing – a disturbing and distressing thought. For Christians, as Pastor Fleischmann observed, the Gospel informs politics, not the other way around. 

 

_________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  Keating has two new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.comPast Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

 

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Biden Looking to Repeat Obama’s Mistakes on the Economy

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – December 13, 2020

 

Barack Obama was dealt a bad hand on the economy – to say the least – when he was elected in 2008. Unfortunately, his policy agenda proceeded to make matters worse, deepening the Great Recession and undermining the subsequent recovery. Obama’s vice president and now-President-elect Joe Biden didn’t learn from Obama’s errors, and apparently is ready to repeat the mistakes of recent history. 



Similar to Obama, Biden has been dealt an extremely bad hand on the economy, i.e., the pandemic, and the resulting troubles in terms of illnesses, deaths and economic woes. But again, looking ahead, Biden’s policy agenda, if implemented, would make matters worse.

 

No matter what one’s view of the government’s COVID-19-related shutdowns and aid efforts might be, the fact is that on the other side of this pandemic, the U.S. faces enormous economic challenges. Those include restarting economic growth, and dealing with the costs of a vast expansion in government spending and debt. 

 

The fact is that the consequences of this explosion in government can only be dealt with constructively in an environment of strong economic growth. On the policy front, that means a tax, regulatory and trade agenda that strengthens the foundation for economic growth, at the same time as government spending is being reined in and capped.

 

President Obama’s agenda of more government spending, higher taxes, and increased regulation wound up increasing the costs of and creating disincentives for entrepreneurship and private investment. In turn, the subsequent economy underperformed, with economic growth running at about half of what it should be during period periods of recovery and expansion.

 

And now we see President-elect Biden likewise presenting an agenda of expanded government, higher taxes, and increased taxes. For example, Biden’s tax plan features higher individual income, payroll and capital gains tax rates on upper-income earners, that is, on entrepreneurs and investors, and a higher corporate income tax rate. 

 

And then there’s Biden’s call for increased regulation – in particular, more government mandates in labor markets – and a spending agenda chock full of new programs and spending plans. 

 

Biden either fails to understand basic economics, or chooses politics over economics (or both). Economic common sense makes clear that raising costs, reducing potential returns, and diminishing incentives for starting up, expanding and investing in businesses will undermine economic, income and employment growth.

 

Reducing resources and incentives for entrepreneurship and investing in new businesses always rates as bad policy. But given the sweeping destruction of small businesses during this pandemic, and how vital small businesses are to growth, innovation and job creation, it’s even more dangerous, troubling and absurd right now.

 

There’s also a good chance that a Biden administration would continue with at least parts of the worst aspect of the Trump economic agenda, i.e., trade protectionism. After all, it’s important to keep in mind that prior to Trump, the Democrats ranked as the anti-free-trade, pro-protectionism party. The only real difference is that the Democrats tend to dress up protectionism in prettier language than Trump (not exactly hard to do). And the earliest, post-election signals are not good, as President-elect Biden has hesitated on talking about rolling back Trump’s destructive anti-trade measures, and even noted that he might keep the tariffs around that American businesses and consumers are paying on Chinese imports. 

 

Keep in mind that the 2008 presidential campaign of Barack Obama and Joe Biden was strikingly similar in tone on trade to the Trump agenda. Once in office, Obama stepped back from his protectionist rhetoric, but Trump moved aggressively in a protectionist direction. The Trump trade agenda has taken a toll on U.S. economic growth, and if Biden does not turn the U.S. in a free trade direction, then trade policy will continue to serve as another drag on economic recovery.

 

The economic road ahead promises to be rough. It will be made worse or better by the policies implemented. The U.S. needs a pro-growth agenda of tax and regulatory relief, free trade, and spending reduction and then restraint. However, President-elect Biden is focused on an anti-growth agenda of increased tax and regulatory burdens, more government spending, and at best, a foggy future on trade. 

 

Don’t be surprised if the post-pandemic economic recovery badly underperforms under Biden, just as was the case under Obama.

 

__________

 

Recent pieces by Ray Keating…

 

“Rebuilding Conservatism #2: Free Trade Rocks and Protectionism Sucks”

 

“Rebuilding Conservatism #1: What is Conservatism?”

 

“Bing Crosby – Christmas Crooner, Top Entertainer, Top Entrepreneur”

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  His new book Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13th thriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at  www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Saturday, October 24, 2020

Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 24, 2020

 

Politics is prone to people fooling themselves. Poll watching can become part of this self-deception when it degrades into highlighting polls that favor your candidate, and tossing aside polls that favor the other guy or gal. Fooling oneself also becomes evident when history is twisted to fit a preferred political narrative.

 

This phenomenon infects many Trump supporters this year in three particular ways.



First, highlighting some polls and ignoring others is a choice that seems to be running rampant among Trump supporters. Why? With Election Day only ten days away, the national polls have President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by significant numbers. 

 

As a race comes down to the end, if one is looking at polling in a serious way, then the key is to watch averages of recent polls, rather than grabbing that one poll that reflects what you want to happen.

 

Looking at averages, Biden leads Trump right now by 8-9 percentage points. That’s a  daunting deficit for the president, especially at this late point in the race.

 

The second mistake when watching political polls has to do with misinterpreting history. Many Trump supporters, for example, have latched onto the idea that the polls in 2016 were dead wrong, so they will be this year, too. In reality, the national polls in 2016 were correct, as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by 48.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Factor in the margins of error present in all polling, and the national polls were pretty much spot on. 

 

The problem in 2016 came with state polls in three states, and those states broke unexpectedly and very narrowly for Trump, gaining him the White House, i.e., Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Taking note of these states this year, the task for the president remains formidable. Biden holds solid leads, again, looking at poll averages, in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

 

Misinterpreting history also is the third problem this year. There’s a great deal of talk about how Ronald Reagan was trailing Jimmy Carter in 1980, but then the race broke late for Reagan, after the last presidential debate, and he went on to a big win. 

 

Yes, Reagan did win big in 1980 (thankfully!). However, when you look at the polls in total, Reagan really hadn’t been trailing Carter since May of that year. Yes, the race tightened and widened over those subsequent five-plus months, and a poll here and there put Carter up, but Reagan never fell behind when looking at the polls in full.

 

Consider the following chart presented in a 2012 analysis. Eight years ago, Romney folks also were grasping at the idea of a late comeback by Reagan.



As the author, John Sides, noted: “ The plot shows … the ebbing of Carter’s poll standing throughout 1980.  Indeed, Reagan didn’t need his convention bump — which he certainly got — to put him in the lead.  The Democratic convention helped erode Reagan’s lead but it never closed it altogether.”

 

So, where does the Reagan story come from? Gallup, actually. Their polling before the last Carter-Reagan debate (held on October 28) put Carter up by 8 points, but that was among registered voters. The same poll had Carter up by only 3 points (within the margin of error) among likely voters, which is the more substantive polling measure. And again, this was one poll, ignoring the full polling picture at the time.

 

Can the polls be wrong? Of course. But it’s the exception. In the end, it’s about who comes out to vote. And that’s part of what pollsters try to figure out. But outside of an agenda-driven survey here and there, polling data is not the arbitrary, manipulative tool that it often gets labeled as – especially by those who happen to be trailing in the polls.

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Stop Looking at the Unemployment Rate: The New York Example”

 

“Is Trump Toast?”

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Pre-order the forthcoming Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/vaticanshadows and the Kindle Edition at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08L1HLRP3

 

Also, choose your 2021 TO DO List planner today, and enjoy the pre-order sale! Perfect for you and as Christmas gifts. Choose between The Lutheran Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, The Film Buff’s Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, and The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution. Get more information at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/todolistsolutionplanners

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

 

Friday, October 16, 2020

Is Trump Toast?

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 16, 2020

 

When a president runs for a second term, the race overwhelmingly turns out to be a referendum on the incumbent.

 

I’ve said this before but it bears repeating: I’d love to be able to claim that Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 was a vote for Reagan, but in reality, it was a vote against Jimmy Carter. The 1984 contest turned out to be a resounding, 49-state approval for Reagan.



So, make no mistake, this 2020 presidential contest is largely about President Donald Trump. And that’s turning out quite poorly for the president, and perhaps for Republicans in general.

 

On Friday (October 16) morning, pollster and focus-group guru Frank Luntz made two important points on CNBC. First, he noted that his focus groups and surveys are telling him that the voters who remain undecided regarding the Trump-Biden contest overwhelming dislike, even despise, the president as a person, but at the same time, they’re afraid of the policies of Joe Biden and the Democrats. That’s not surprising. After all a large swath of the nation seems to fall into this category. Second, Luntz noted that, historically, those who remain undecided close to the vote, break two-thirds for the challenger. 

 

When you look at where the polls are today, none of this is good news for Trump. 

 

While Trump consistently trailed Hillary Clinton in the national polling in 2016, those polls overwhelmingly were within the margin of error. Also, when you look at the polling averages, Clinton’s average percentage never touched 50 percent over the seven-plus months leading up to Election Day. Coming down the stretch, Clinton’s average ran between 46 percent and 48 percent, and Trump’s between 42 percent and 45 percent. The final outcome? Clinton won 46.8 percent versus Trump’s 43.6 percent. The national polls nailed the popular vote. 

 

This year, in recent weeks, polling averages have Biden running between 49 percent and 52 percent, with Trump down at 42 percent to 43 percent. Barring some bizarre occurrence – like Joe Biden during the last debate screaming, “Get the squirrels off me!” – that would seem to be an insurmountable lead.

 

But as many people learned in 2016, the presidential race actually is a state-by-state contest, decided in the Electoral College. So, let’s update our look at the battleground states.

 

Arizona (11 electoral votes). The most reliable recent polls put Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points, with Biden running in the 49 percent to 51 percent range.

 

Florida (29 electoral votes). Florida still falls into the toss-up category. But most recent polls have Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 points. However, one poll puts the two in a tie, and another has Trump up by 2 points. 

 

Michigan (16 electoral votes). The recent polls overwhelmingly show Biden widening his lead in the state, generally possessing a 6-to-9 percentage point lead. However, one recent outlier puts Trump up by 1 point, that is, a dead heat.

 

Minnesota (10 electoral votes). The recent polls show Biden holding a consistent lead.

 

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The state now leans slightly toward Biden, with polls ranging from a dead heat to Biden up by 6 percentage points. 

 

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). While Biden holds a consistent lead in Pennsylvania, depending on the poll, the race is either very close or Biden holds a comfortable lead. Indeed, the president’s been hanging tough in this state. 

 

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Biden continues to look strong in Wisconsin, with a lead stretching out as far as 10 percentage points. Although one poll puts the race within the margin of error.

 

Ohio (18 electoral votes). The latest polls show an effective dead heat in Ohio, with Trump holding a slight edge. The polls range from Biden being up by one point to Trump being up by 3 points.

 

Iowa (6 electoral votes). While Iowa is an effective dead heat, the recent polls show things leaning ever so slightly toward Trump, with him holding leads from 1 to 6 points.

 

Georgia (16 electoral votes). It’s rather stunning to look at the polls in Georgia. The race in this normally safe Republican state range from Trump having a 2 point lead to Biden holding a lead of 7 points.

 

Nevada (6 electoral votes). The latest reliable polls show Biden holding an edge anywhere from 2 to 6 points. The far less reliable polls show him with a bigger lead.

 

Texas (38 electoral votes). Amazingly, Texas, normally Republican country, stands as a dead heat, with the latest polls ranging from Biden being up by 2 points to Trump up by 7 points. (See my take on Texas apparently going Purple.)

 

Alaska (3 electoral votes). Here’s another bizarre item: The lone reliable poll served up in Alaska recently put Trump up 45 percent to Biden’s 39 percent. However, that’s within the poll’s margin of error. Now, I don’t expect Trump to lose Alaska, but Biden within the margin of error speaks to the broader troubles that Republicans are facing. 

 

Right now, a worst case scenario for Joe Biden would give Biden 304 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win. In a Blue wave scenario, that tally could go as high as 393.

 

And when Republicans have to spend time and money in Georgia and in Texas that spells big trouble for Trump and his party.

 

It’s worth noting the comments revealed in the media made by U.S. Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) to town hall with constituents. According to a report from the New York Times, when asked about why he’s so hard on Trump, Sasse unloaded on Trump, hitting him on a wide array of issues. That included Sasse warning, “We are staring down the barrel of a blue tsunami.”

 

The polling data point to Trump being toast. The real question appears to be: How bad will it be for Republicans in general?

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

 

“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”

 

“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”

 

“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.