For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts
Showing posts with label recession. Show all posts

Sunday, December 13, 2020

Biden Looking to Repeat Obama’s Mistakes on the Economy

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – December 13, 2020

 

Barack Obama was dealt a bad hand on the economy – to say the least – when he was elected in 2008. Unfortunately, his policy agenda proceeded to make matters worse, deepening the Great Recession and undermining the subsequent recovery. Obama’s vice president and now-President-elect Joe Biden didn’t learn from Obama’s errors, and apparently is ready to repeat the mistakes of recent history. 



Similar to Obama, Biden has been dealt an extremely bad hand on the economy, i.e., the pandemic, and the resulting troubles in terms of illnesses, deaths and economic woes. But again, looking ahead, Biden’s policy agenda, if implemented, would make matters worse.

 

No matter what one’s view of the government’s COVID-19-related shutdowns and aid efforts might be, the fact is that on the other side of this pandemic, the U.S. faces enormous economic challenges. Those include restarting economic growth, and dealing with the costs of a vast expansion in government spending and debt. 

 

The fact is that the consequences of this explosion in government can only be dealt with constructively in an environment of strong economic growth. On the policy front, that means a tax, regulatory and trade agenda that strengthens the foundation for economic growth, at the same time as government spending is being reined in and capped.

 

President Obama’s agenda of more government spending, higher taxes, and increased regulation wound up increasing the costs of and creating disincentives for entrepreneurship and private investment. In turn, the subsequent economy underperformed, with economic growth running at about half of what it should be during period periods of recovery and expansion.

 

And now we see President-elect Biden likewise presenting an agenda of expanded government, higher taxes, and increased taxes. For example, Biden’s tax plan features higher individual income, payroll and capital gains tax rates on upper-income earners, that is, on entrepreneurs and investors, and a higher corporate income tax rate. 

 

And then there’s Biden’s call for increased regulation – in particular, more government mandates in labor markets – and a spending agenda chock full of new programs and spending plans. 

 

Biden either fails to understand basic economics, or chooses politics over economics (or both). Economic common sense makes clear that raising costs, reducing potential returns, and diminishing incentives for starting up, expanding and investing in businesses will undermine economic, income and employment growth.

 

Reducing resources and incentives for entrepreneurship and investing in new businesses always rates as bad policy. But given the sweeping destruction of small businesses during this pandemic, and how vital small businesses are to growth, innovation and job creation, it’s even more dangerous, troubling and absurd right now.

 

There’s also a good chance that a Biden administration would continue with at least parts of the worst aspect of the Trump economic agenda, i.e., trade protectionism. After all, it’s important to keep in mind that prior to Trump, the Democrats ranked as the anti-free-trade, pro-protectionism party. The only real difference is that the Democrats tend to dress up protectionism in prettier language than Trump (not exactly hard to do). And the earliest, post-election signals are not good, as President-elect Biden has hesitated on talking about rolling back Trump’s destructive anti-trade measures, and even noted that he might keep the tariffs around that American businesses and consumers are paying on Chinese imports. 

 

Keep in mind that the 2008 presidential campaign of Barack Obama and Joe Biden was strikingly similar in tone on trade to the Trump agenda. Once in office, Obama stepped back from his protectionist rhetoric, but Trump moved aggressively in a protectionist direction. The Trump trade agenda has taken a toll on U.S. economic growth, and if Biden does not turn the U.S. in a free trade direction, then trade policy will continue to serve as another drag on economic recovery.

 

The economic road ahead promises to be rough. It will be made worse or better by the policies implemented. The U.S. needs a pro-growth agenda of tax and regulatory relief, free trade, and spending reduction and then restraint. However, President-elect Biden is focused on an anti-growth agenda of increased tax and regulatory burdens, more government spending, and at best, a foggy future on trade. 

 

Don’t be surprised if the post-pandemic economic recovery badly underperforms under Biden, just as was the case under Obama.

 

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Recent pieces by Ray Keating…

 

“Rebuilding Conservatism #2: Free Trade Rocks and Protectionism Sucks”

 

“Rebuilding Conservatism #1: What is Conservatism?”

 

“Bing Crosby – Christmas Crooner, Top Entertainer, Top Entrepreneur”

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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  His new book Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13th thriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at  www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Thursday, May 21, 2020

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #63: Are We in a Recession or Depression?


At first glance, that’s not an easy question to answer because the definition of a recession isn’t exactly crystal clear, and it gets murkier when defining a depression. But Keating tries to clear things up.

Wednesday, March 25, 2020

The Realities of the Coronavirus Economy

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – March 25, 2020

Just in case any doubts lingered about government’s ability to destroy business and economic activity, while at the same time being completely incapable of ginning up the economy, the coronavirus should wipe them away.


Indeed, most slowdowns, recessions and depressions are about government doing something stupid, and then trying to fix the problem with the wrong responses.

What’s different with the government’s response to the spreading coronavirus is that elected officials chose to shut down large chunks of the economy. That is, rather than creating a recession by mistake, this time, it was done on purpose. And quite frankly, in terms of the severe health care risks, there’s not much else that government could do under the circumstances.

But that doesn’t mean that there have not been and will not be brutal costs involved with this government-ordered recession. Consider that Goldman Sachs has predicted that the U.S. economy will shrink by 24 percent in the second quarter of this year, after a decline of 6 percent in the first quarter. If this turns out to be the result, that’s never happened before. On the brighter side (really?), Goldman’s economists look for growth to bounce back to 12 percent in the third quarter and 10 percent in the fourth.

Responses to the current state of affairs vary widely. Let’s consider two groups. Voices from Group 1 proclaim that the government’s actions went too far, and the economy needs to be quickly “re-opened.” And Group 2 awaits the passage and signing into law of some kind of salvation via a massive federal government aid package (likely to happen today, or the next day or two). This package will tally up to more than $2 trillion. Basically, both are wrong.

The problem with Group 1 is that they downplay the harsh realities of the coronavirus, including the potential deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans if this is not stomped down. The coronavirus must be made manageable, and then the restrictions on business and individuals can be lifted. 

As for Group 2 and a massive government aid package, a few points must be considered. First, in the short run, it makes sense for government to step up to help people thrown out of work, and businesses torpedoed and sank by government shutting down the economy on purpose. And we all hope that government somehow overcomes its inherent waste and inefficiencies to provide some much-needed assistance. But no one should be surprised by delays, foul ups and special-interests grabbing resources – that’s government.

Second, the current situation doesn’t mean we can wish away economic reality. Government aid dollars do not appear magically out of thin air. Instead, they are drained from the private sector. So, it must be noted that this massive aid package over the longer haul will serve to inflict additional damage on our economy. The best case scenario for this aid effort is that it manages to alleviate a chunk of the short-run severity, while we must recognize the added woes it will bring over the longer run.

There is no clear way to deal with the coronavirus in terms of its effects on jobs, businesses and the economy. We’re kind of feeling our way step by step each day, and for the most part, up until now, it’s hard to disagree with most of the actions taken. In the coming months, it will be about limiting the downside – again, even while recognizing that the damage promises to be deep and severe. 

As for the economy snapping back, there should be some of that late this year and into 2021. But the coronavirus itself and the coronavirus economy will not just go away with a flip of the switch. The effects promise to linger some, with a longer road to full recovery than perhaps many are expecting right now. And that recovery depends upon government doing the right thing and not making matters worse – always a dicey proposition.

The worst case scenario would be extending government interference in the economy due to the coronavirus emergency into the post-coronavirus period. Once we’ve reached that point where the virus is being managed properly, government needs to quickly step back and shrink, so that entrepreneurs, businesses, investors and workers are free to get back to innovating, working, investing, and growing businesses, the economy, income and jobs.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Tuesday, March 17, 2020

Is the U.S. in a Recession Right Now?

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – March 17, 2020

Unfortunately, with each passing day and further steps being taken by government to deal with the coronavirus/COVID-19, it becomes clearer that the U.S. is in a recession right now. Indeed, government actions – while largely necessary to limit the damage of this pandemic – have in effect shutdown significant chunks of our economy.


Yet, assorted analysts and business media keep talking about a possible recession arriving in the second quarter of this year and extending into the third quarter. But let’s keep in mind that we are still in the first quarter right now, and the economy clearly has hit the brakes.

For good measure, as I noted a week ago, contrary to what people had talked themselves into regarding the pre-coronavirus economy, growth slowed notably over the past five quarters, in which real GDP growth averaged only 2.1 percent. Most critically, real business investment declined in each of the last three quarters, and trade has been a drag on growth for two years. So, the economy wasn’t exactly roaring when we ran into the coronavirus.

Business investment now seems to be in freefall, along with trade, and toss in workers being told to stay home and commensurately reining in their spending, and it’s hard to see how a recession has not already started.

Keep in mind, by the way, that the back-of-the-envelope definition of a recession is at least two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, the official start and end dates of recessions are determined, based on an assortment of factors, by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

No one knows how the coronavirus and its effects are going to fully play out, but it seems like a safe bet to see this anti-virus effort extending into the summer, and with it, a recession – even with federal government so-called “stimulus” efforts. With little confidence, the best guess-timate from this economist is that the recession began this month, and will last into the third quarter of this year. But it also must be noted that if entrepreneurs, businesses and investors get a strong whiff of more anti-growth policymaking emerging from the November’s presidential and congressional elections, then the recession could last longer, or the threat of a double-dip recession – that is, the recession ends with a brief period of growth, followed by another downturn – looms in the distance.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York – signed booksor for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

Tuesday, March 10, 2020

A Coronavirus Recession Likely

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – March 10, 2020

Whether the coronavirus meets the worst or best of expectations in the United States, it’s difficult to see how a recession is missed – or at best, narrowly avoided with growth slowing to a crawl.


Consider that despite the happy talk – or tweets – emerging from assorted political sources, the U.S. economy has not been rocking and rolling. In fact, after some respectable growth numbers from mid-2017 through the third quarter of 2018, the economy has slowed notably since, with real GDP growth averaging only 2.1 percent over the past five quarters.

For good measure, real business investment (as well as overall private investment) has declined in the past three quarters (i.e., the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2019), and trade has been drag on the economy for the past two years.

Finally, much of economic growth over the past two-plus years has been about the consumer. However, the consumer is a follower, not a leader. Consumers take their cues from what’s going on with business. That is, if new enterprises are being started, and businesses are investing and hiring, then consumers are pleased and spending. While entrepreneurship has been lagging, businesses have been hiring. But given the recent decline in business investment and the uncertainties of the coronavirus, business investment is likely to continue to falter, in the near term, and along with it, now, hiring.

To sum up, when you look at the current status and coming months, there’s little positive to see for major sections of the U.S. economy. Private investment is likely to continue to falter (or at best stagnate), trade will continue to be a drag, and the consumer is likely to be hunkering down. That combines to spell either a recession or no growth in the short term.

Another question to ponder: Is the U.S. well-positioned from a policy standpoint so that economic growth snaps back afterwards – either later this year or into 2021? Consider that we were not positioned to do so after the last recession, and have since suffered through an under-performing recovery/expansion period since mid-2009. Quick answer? Trade policy remains anti-growth, as does government spending (with big spending increases over the last two years). Taxes generally have been a policy positive since December 2017. The regulatory story has been mixed, but overall a net plus. And monetary policy remains unhinged from economic reality, with the hope being that Fed cluelessness continues to be corrected or ignored by the private sector.

Oh yes, and then there’s this presidential and congressional election thing coming in November?

Snap back or no, then? It’s hard to tell. My best guess is that a short recession or no-growth period is followed by a short snap back, and then barring some strong pro-growth policy changes, the economy falls back into the slow-growth scenario that we’ve suffered under for too long.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Monday, April 18, 2016

Trump’s Huge Recession

by Ray Keating

Way back in 1970, the late Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman wrote, “I have been impressed time and again by the schizophrenic character of many businessmen. They are capable of being extremely farsighted and clearheaded in matters that are internal to their businesses. They are incredibly shortsighted and muddleheaded in matters that are outside their business but affect the possible survival of business in general.”

This phenomenon has only spread over the past 45-plus years. We now are constantly berated by corporate executives and high-profile investors saying things about the economy and public policy that make absolutely no economic sense. These leaders in business turn out to be economic illiterates.

Unfortunately, one of these economic illiterate businessmen just happens to be leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Of course, I speak of businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump.

It’s not easy figuring out how Trump came to rise and stay atop the GOP field. But to a significant degree, the Trump train keeps chugging along due to the fuel of populism. Specifically, Trump has played on or ginned up people’s fears, in particular, irrational fears of foreigners. After all, Trump is the guy who is going to fix “bad trade deals,” apparently by imposing massive tariffs on products from nations with which we run trade deficits, like Mexico, China and Japan. Trump also plans to create a “deportation force” to move 11-12 million illegal immigrants out of the nation.

While this might be classic populist politics, it’s also classically wrongheaded populist economics. Trump misses simple economic facts.

For example, in the U.S., periods of higher economic growth usually coincide with shrinking trade surpluses or mounting trade deficits, while economic slowdowns and recessions coincide with declines in trade deficits. The U.S. trade deficit shrank dramatically during the 2007-2009 recession, declined during the slowdown and recession in 1990-91, and during the economic woes of 1979 to 1982, the trade deficit not only declined, but shifted to a surplus during two of those years. Indeed, the surest way to “cure” a trade deficit is with a recession.

For good measure, the last time the U.S. went down the path of protectionism, it did not turn out well, to say the least. As a result of protectionist tariff measures passed in 1921 and 1922, and, most egregiously, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, trade declined. Most egregious, the Smoot-Hawley measure triggered the Great Depression. It took decades for trade to regain previous levels.

Make no mistake, free trade – that is, reducing governmental barriers and costs to trade – is a positive for economic growth; for increased opportunity for U.S. entrepreneurs, small businesses and workers; as well as for expanding choices and reducing costs for U.S. consumers.

And trade is increasingly important to the U.S. economy. From 2000 to 2015, for example, the growth in real U.S. exports equaled 22.5 percent of the growth in real GDP, and the expansion in real total trade (i.e., exports plus imports) came in at 41.6 percent of real GDP growth. Also, consider that in 1950, U.S. exports equaled 4.2 percent of GDP, and imports registered 4 percent, while in 2015, exports had jumped to 12.6 percent of GDP, and imports to 15.5 percent of the U.S. economy.

Donald Trump misses all of this, apparently.

As for immigration, few disagree that the current system, which allowed for 11-12 million people to be in the nation illegally, needs to be fixed. Indeed, respect for the rule of law demands immigration reform. At the same time, it must be recognized that most immigrants – both legal and illegal – come to this nation seeking a better life, and they contribute as workers, business owners and consumers. For good measure, immigrants also benefit the economy by overwhelmingly doing work that is complementary to the native born.

Given these economic realities, the Trump agenda of tariffs and deportation would inflict serious harm on the U.S. economy.

On trade, American Action Forum, a free enterprise group, has estimated that Trump’s plan for imposing significant tariffs on imports from China and Mexico would hit U.S. consumers with $250 billion in annual costs.

For good measure, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has projected that the Trump tariffs on China and Mexico would bring about a significant recession: “The U.S. recession would set in within the first year under Trump’s proposed trade policies, which include a 35 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and a 45 percent tax on goods coming in from China. Over the next three years, the U.S. economy would shrink by 4.6 percent and the unemployment rate would nearly double to 9.5 percent.”

As for the Trump – as well as Senator Ted Cruz – deportation agenda, the story for the economy gets even worse. The American Action Forum offers the following points and estimates:

• To deport all illegal immigrants in the nation in two years, as Trump proposes, the federal taxpayer costs would be massive. These would include federal immigration apprehension personnel increasing from 4,844 positions to 90,582 positions; the number of immigration detention beds jumping from 34,000 to 348,831; immigration courts rising from 58 to 1,316; and the number of federal attorneys legally processing undocumented immigrants increasing from 1,430 to 32,445.

• As for the economic costs, they are even more frightening. AAF reports: “The result is a sudden and deep recession similar to what the United States recently experienced during the Great Recession. Let’s say that full immigration enforcement starts at the beginning of 2017 and the U.S. government successfully removes all undocumented immigrants by the end of 2018. At the end of 2018, the labor force would be 6.4 percent smaller than if the government had not removed those immigrants. Relative to CBO baseline projections, the labor force would decrease by 10.3 million workers. As a result, the labor force would fall to its lowest level since 2006. In addition, the labor force participation rate would fall from about 62.3 percent to 60.7 percent, the lowest level since the 1970s. The steep decline in the labor force would cause the economy to decline sharply. At the end of 2018, the economy would be 5.7 percent smaller than it would be if the government did not remove all undocumented immigrants. For purposes of comparison, note that the decline in real GDP during the Great Recession was quite similar – 6.3 percent. This suggests that real GDP would be about $1 trillion lower in 2018 than CBO’s baseline estimate, wiping out all economic growth that would have occurred during the previous three years.”

The most likely outcome of the Trump tariff and deportation agenda? A huge recession.

None of this should be surprising to anyone who understands the economics and history of both trade and immigration.

But maybe Trump has an excuse. After all, his business career seems to be best known for four high-profile business bankruptcies in a span of 18 years. Milton Friedman was bewildered by businessmen being “farsighted and clearheaded” in their own businesses but “shortsighted and muddleheaded” on matters outside their business. It can be argued that Trump is shortsighted and muddleheaded on matters both inside and outside his businesses.

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Mr. Keating is an economist and novelist who writes on a wide range of topics. His Pastor Stephen Grant novels have received considerable acclaim, including The River: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel being a finalist for KFUO radio’s Book of the Year 2014, and Murderer’s Row: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel winning Book of the Year 2015.

The Pastor Stephen Grant Novels are available at Amazon…




Thursday, January 28, 2016

Throwback Thursday: Nailed It on Our Long Economic Mess

by Ray Keating

I was watching CNBC early one morning this week, and a prominent Wall Street analyst was assessing the ills of our economy, declaring that no one saw how bad this was going to be. Really?

Quite frankly, the only way anyone could have misdiagnosed the poor economy of the past eight-plus years was if the actual causes of these troubles were ignored. But many so-called experts have done just that. They’ve ignored that our lengthy economic woes are rooted in public policies that have increased both costs and uncertainties for entrepreneurs, businesses and investors.

I’m no genius (as most of my family and friends will attest), but on this Throwback Thursday consider the following points I made in columns in late 2008 and early 2009, amidst the height and frenzy of the credit and economic meltdown.

Consider a September 26, 2008, Long Island Business News column in which I observed:

But before it gets etched in history that this was a case of government coming to the rescue of a market gone awry, the government’s role in helping to create this mess must be noted. Consider, for example, the following points:
• When the government set up Fannie and Freddie as public-private entities, problems were inevitable. Stockholders would reap rewards, while taxpayer got stuck with the losses. And while politicians could deny responsibility for Fannie and Freddie problems, they also could use the two mortgage giants to push their affordable housing agendas, and as a source of patronage opportunities. Not exactly a situation in which politicians have incentives to keep a close eye on things.
• The Federal Reserve ran a monetary policy that was far too easy. This kept interest rates too low, created a bias in favor of debt and fueled over-leveraging.
• After the Enron mess, new accounting rules imposed, with approval from the Securities and Exchange Commission, mark-to-market asset valuation. In the current housing debacle, financial institutions have been forced to revalue assets, even when the value of those assets may not be currently known, when price declines are temporary for assets that could be held to maturity, and/or when a mortgage, for example, is not in default. The write-downs require larger reserves, and hence financial firms get sucked down.
So, maybe it’s not just about greedy people on Wall Street, as so many politicians keep chattering on about these days. Perhaps it’s also about politicians and their appointees who fail to fully grasp the consequences of their policies.
Unfortunately, word out of the halls of Congress is that more government regulation is on its way. That’s typical. Troubles bubble up in the market, and no matter what the actual causes, politicians decide that something, anything, must be done – whether it makes economic sense or not…
Even if some folks on Wall Street have temporarily given up on sound economics, that doesn’t mean the rest of us have to go along. Jeez, does anyone honestly think more government will fix things?

In a November 8, 2008, column, I offered the following outlook (bold added):

What’s ahead? Well, the current recession only promises to deepen in the current quarter. And given the many problems on the credit, confidence and public policy fronts, it’s unfortunately too easy to envision a longer-than-usual recession followed by a very sluggish recovery.
In fact, the economy is unlikely to get back on a robust growth path until entrepreneurs and investors see clearly that higher taxes, trade protectionism, increased regulation and bigger government in general are off the policy table, replaced by clear commitments to tax and regulatory relief, free trade and restraint in the size and reach of government. When the nation might return to that kind of agenda, however, is anyone’s guess.

And on February 3, 2009, I wrote:

More federal government spending is being offered as the right tonic for the economy. On top of already staggering levels of federal government outlays, the plan is for politicians to throw around another $600-billion-plus to jumpstart the U.S. economy.
The Congressional Budget Office released an analysis of this “American Recovery and Reinvestment Act” on Jan. 26. It turns out that only $92 billion of the spending would occur during the current fiscal year. Another $225 billion would wait for fiscal year 2010, and $159 billion for 2011. So much for the idea that quick government spending on “shovel ready” projects is the path to reviving our economy.
But even if most of this government spending were doled out over the next few months, it would not be a positive for the economy. Instead, it would be a negative in both the short run and over the longer haul.
Shifting resources out of the private sector in order expand the size of government is not the road to economic revitalization. Instead, it is the path to economic stagnation and relative decline.

Nailed it! All of it!

Okay, am I guilty of patting myself on the back? Perhaps. But if you understand free enterprise, markets, and the impact of public policy, this should have been quite obvious. And yes, we continue to pay the price today, and will for the foreseeable future without a dramatic change in policy direction.

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Mr. Keating is an economist and novelist who writes on a wide range of topics. His Pastor Stephen Grant novels have received considerable acclaim, including The River: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel being a finalist for KFUO radio’s Book of the Year 2014, and Murderer’s Row: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel nominated for Book of the Year 2015.

The Pastor Stephen Grant Novels are available at Amazon…