The Tyranny of Disagreement

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – May 8, 2020

“Tyranny” is one of those weighty words meant to be reserved for the most dire of circumstances. Or, well, it used to be. But then again, we’ve lost or squandered the meaning of many words in our politics in recent times. 

Today, “tyranny” is being tossed around rather freely by some when discussing the issue of government limiting or restricting the ability of Americans to assemble, including at churches, during the current coronavirus pandemic.

The New Oxford American Dictionary serves up the following definition of “tyranny”: “cruel and oppressive government or rule.” Importantly, it also adds: “(especially in ancient Greece) rule by one who has absolute power without legal right.”

That definition, however, has been tossed aside by some in favor of name-calling when it comes to those with whom they disagree on issues that are, no doubt, of great significance. 

Indeed, there is precedent for descending into name-calling. “Tyranny” long has been a favorite slur hurled by the most extreme of libertarians at anyone who dares to disagree with their views on freedom. And neo-Confederates, of course, have a lengthy track record of referring to President Lincoln as a tyrant, while never mentioning the word “traitor” when it comes to the Confederacy, nor “tyranny” when speaking of slavery. Hmmm.

Meanwhile, since the 1960s, the Left has discarded their dictionaries – or more accurately, an understanding of history – in favor of kicking down the name-calling door by comparing conservatives and Republicans to Nazis. So, the likes of William F. Buckley, Jr., Ronald Reagan and George W. Bush were compared to or called “Nazis.”

As for the current pandemic and restrictions on gatherings, the debate rages, and justifiably so. Indeed, healthy debate is central to our system, to the freedoms we enjoy as Americans. And we, obviously, will disagree, and often vehemently so.

And the matter of churches being able to hold services as they see fit ranks as an area of powerful disagreement. After all, the First Amendment guarantees freedom of religion and assembly. And the first duty of government, in fact, is to protect the rights and liberties of individuals, that is, the natural rights that pre-exist government. But a fundamental duty of government also is to protect life and limb. And so, we have the longtime debate of balancing such matters in times of national emergency. 

Living under true tyranny would mean not being able to debate and discuss such issues, and having no recourse to government actions due to oppressive rule. But that clearly is not our system. 

Individuals and groups have the ability to protest, pressure elected officials, sway public opinion, and resort to the courts to wrestle with and settle disagreements. And even when seemingly over with, many issues are never fully settled, and the debate goes on – and that, again, is a credit to our freedoms and system of government.

But then there are those asserting that since they have a particular view regarding an important topic, they are free to ignore what government says. And since our government exercises its authority by the consent of the governed, then they either accuse government of not consenting to the governed or assert that they can withdraw their consent, and then are justified to choose to do what they think is right. 

But that, of course, is a recipe for anarchy. “Consent of the governed” doesn’t mean that if you disagree with certain policies, you’re free to ignore the law or how disagreements are debated and decided in our system of government, and not suffer any consequences. Our system is a republican form of government rooted in the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution, whereby citizens vote for their governmental representatives. It is not a pure democracy, nor is it a system of anarchy whereby individuals are free to ignore whatever laws they don’t like. Indeed, if that were the case, then I wouldn’t be paying income taxes.

On the matter of churches, like many other Christians, I desperately miss attending church, hearing the Word proclaimed and receiving the Sacrament of Communion. At the same, I understand, given the coronavirus pandemic, why the ability to attend church has been put on hold in some parts of the country, and restricted in assorted ways in other parts. I also believe that government has overstepped in still other areas. 

But I would hope that pastors and priests would act with wisdom during such times – and most have, thankfully. That would include holding church services when possible and as allowed; and working with all tools at their disposal to reach their parishioners with the comfort of Christ. At the same time, if they view government as overstepping, they should speak out accordingly. But being frustrated and impatient should not be an excuse for acting in ways that could have negative consequences, physically and spiritually, for their congregations, for the larger Church and for reaching the world with the Gospel – now and in the future – such as by deciding to flagrantly violate the law. 

For good measure, whether one agrees or disagrees with the policies made on such matters state by state, decisions to restrict gatherings are not conspiratorial or tyrannical efforts to undermine the Church. Indeed, over the years, I’ve seen too many people confuse government’s inherent incompetence with some kind of intricate “Deep State” plot. Trust me, decades of studying and writing about government make clear that it’s incompetence.

Is anyone going to persuade an individual to the correctness or truth of one’s position by accusing them of tyranny or being a Nazis? The obvious answer is no, particularly when those people aren’t committing tyranny and aren’t Nazis. But again much of the talk of tyranny and Nazis is about assuming that one’s opponents are inherently evil, and beyond persuasion and redemption. By the way, that assumption is not allowed for the Christian.

In the end, disagreement – even on the most vital of issues – is not tyranny.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #1: Conservatism, the Coronavirus Economy, the NFL Draft 2020, and What the Heck is PRESS CLUB C Anyway?

Ray Keating kicks off a new podcast. But what the heck is PRESS CLUB C? 

Keating explains, while also talking self-indulgently about himself and his interests. But he eventually puts aside the navel-gazing, and gets around to talking about some topics. Keating explains what conservatism is, or should be, and reflects upon some key points regarding the coronavirus economy. And then as a sports-starved fan, Ray gets downright emotional thinking about the upcoming NFL Draft 2020, and then winds up ranting about his Minnesota Vikings. Four Super Bowl losses with no wins has been tough on Ray over the years.

Please tune in here or click on the graphic above, and, Yes, tell everyone you know!

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #60: 5 Policy Promises Needed for Post-Coronavirus Economy

Ray Keating considers what the economy will need once we have the coronavirus at a manageable stage in terms of economic policymaking.

Tune in here, or click the graphic above.

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #59: How Bad is the Coronavirus Economy?

Ray Keating answers the question: Just how bad is the coronavirus economy?

Tune in here, or click the graphic above.

The Economy Constantly Changes, Sound Economics Doesn’t

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – April 7, 2020

In these hard, uncertain economic times, it must be kept in mind that while the economy constantly changes, sound economics largely doesn’t.

In good times, dynamism and innovation generate rather awesome beneficial changes in an economy. But in bad times, the economy changes via reduced production, bankrupt businesses, and lost income and jobs. However, the fundamentals of sound economic thinking rarely change. 

Indeed, many people miss or don’t grasp the difference between the economy and economics, and therefore, spout off various baseless claims, such as, “This change in the economy has altered how we should think about economy.”

Really? No.

Consider a variety of ways that the U.S. economy has changed in some fundamental aspects in recent times. On the positive side, for example, entrepreneurship has generated innovation (i.e., bringing new products, services and techniques to the economy) and growth, and in turn, has been further fed by innovation and growth. Technological advancements have accelerated the rate of dynamism across most industries. International trade as a share of the U.S. economy vastly expanded over the past six decades, and has generated greater opportunity for entrepreneurs, businesses, workers and consumers. 

As for the negatives, the 2008-09 economic and credit mess – often called the Great Recession – inflicted considerable harm, much of which proved to last or linger throughout the subsequent recovery/expansion period, such as reduced labor force participation and employment as shares of the relevant population, a diminished rate of entrepreneurship, fewer employer firms, a failure of U.S. manufacturing production to fully recover, and an average real economic growth rate languishing well below its historical norm.

And now we face historic changes due to the coronavirus and the shutting down of much of the economy. There have been breathtaking alterations to our lives, including in terms of massive jobs lost, and how many people are working (such as at home). Government’s attempt to alleviate at least some of the economic suffering created by the  pandemic, and the necessary governmental responses to limit illnesses and deaths, has been to pass unprecedented aid measures.

These changes and more have led assorted politicians, TV talking heads, many analysts, and yes, assorted economists to proclaim that we need to think differently about how the economy works. That would not only would be incorrect, but by doing so, it could sentence the U.S. economy to a much longer period of economic losses, including even permanently placing the U.S. on a path of short and long-run decline.

The fundament tenets of economic thinking that I taught MBA students for a decade, for example, have not changed. No matter the course I taught, I took at least one class to briefly teach foundational guideposts or principles of economics (usually as laid out in my favorite textbook Economics: Private and Public Choice by Robert Gwartney, Richard Stroup, Robert Sobel, and David Macpherson). 

Here are 15 key concepts guiding economic thinking that I always brought into the lesson:

• The use of scarce resources is costly and decisions require trade-offs. As the saying goes, there’s no such thing as a free lunch. Whenever there is less of a good or a resource freely available in nature than people would like, there is scarcity and choices are required. And there always is a cost, no matter who pays. 

• Individuals choose with purpose. That is, economizing behavior means choosing the option with the most benefits and least costs. 

• Incentives matter. Choices are affected in a predictable way by incentives, with, again, costs and benefits influencing decisions. 

• Individuals make choices at the margin, that is, considering the difference in the costs and benefits of a decision, and between alternatives. 

• Decisions have secondary effects, i.e.,  unintended or overlooked consequences. These tend to be big sources of economic errors, especially on the public policy front. For example, the most reliable is raising taxes to fund a program without considering the negative effects of increased taxes.

• The value of goods and services are subjective, and entrepreneurs and managers excel when they can determine and provide such value.

• Economic thinking is scientific thinking in that an economic theory is useful based on its ability to predict future consequences, in particular, to predict how incentives affect decision makers. 

• Good intentions do not equal or guarantee desirable outcomes. Politicians often talk about intentions, while ignoring economic realities. 

• Association is not causation. Actual causation must be explained logically.

• Economics is not about dividing up a fixed economic pie. The size of the economy – or the economic pie – actually is not fixed. Economics is not a zero-sum game. Economic growth occurs, and wealth is created. Higher income for one person, for example, does not mean less income for another. 

• Freedom, human knowledge and ingenuity drive economic growth and progress. When individuals are free to create, innovate, invest, work and trade, everyone benefits and prospers, including millions of individuals and entire economies being lifted out of poverty. Study after study confirms that the world’s freest economies overwhelmingly are the wealthiest.

• Trade creates value, whether a transaction takes place across town, across the nation or across an international border. Why? 1) Both parties are better off when making a voluntary exchange. If not, why would they trade? 2) Goods and resources are moved away from products/services valued less to those valued more. 3) Specialization and division of labor mean higher output and increased productivity, as we learned from Adam Smith in 1776 in his Wealth of Nations. 4) The law of comparative advantage – courtesy of early-19^th-century economist David Ricardo – makes clear that total output is greatest when the individual or firm with the lowest opportunity cost (i.e., “opportunity costs” is the highest valued alternative sacrificed in order to choose an option) produces each good or service. Another way to put it: Produce what you are best at, and trade with others, and as a result, everyone is better off. (Please take note President Trump and White House adviser Peter Navarro.)

• Private property rights are essential to economic development, as individuals and businesses have incentives to take care of and properly manage what they own, and to develop resources valued by others. 

• Prices, profits and losses serve as signals in the marketplace, directing resources to activities that increase value and away from activities that diminish value. In comparison, government works under very different incentives, with resources being allocated and decisions guided by political incentives, including power and control, getting votes, sizes of budgets and staff, and serving special interests. Waste in government comes about, in part, due to spending other people’s money; a tendency to subsidize and/or reinforce failure (like providing more dollars and staff for failed programs – think public schools); and a lack of necessary knowledge.

• Key sources of economic growth in a free market economy (see the importance of freedom above) are: 1) Private investment and entrepreneurship mean new and improved technologies, tools, skills, abilities, and productivity in generating goods and services, and enhanced innovation. 2) Essential rules under which the economy operates are critical, including, for example, the rule of law, enforcing contracts, stopping fraud, limited governmental interference or costs (such as in terms of taxes, regulations and government spending), and strong property rights. 3) Working harder – more work and less leisure – will boost growth as well.

So, as much as assorted experts will be spouting off in coming days, weeks and months that this pandemic has changed our economic thinking, don’t buy it.

Economics hasn’t changed. Therefore, we know and should be concerned about certain aspects of government aid packages. 

While there will be plenty of waste in the near term, I will not quarrel with the necessity of emergency government aid given that the current situation is a product of a true public health crisis and government ordering a widespread economic shutdown. 

However, at the same time, we cannot toss aside sound economics in favor of magical political wishes. Therefore, it must be recognized that short-term aid  is not a “stimulus,” as government is draining resources from the economy in order then to reallocate those resources. And there will be real costs to these actions, in addition to the sharp economic downturn we are now experiencing. 

For good measure, given the mindboggling costs of the coronavirus itself, the government-led economic shutdown, and government aid packages, the U.S. economy faces a longer road back to where the economy was than, I think, most people are anticipating – never mind where we should be when economic growth is factored into the equation.

And make no mistake, the longer that government interferes with the workings of the economy, the longer the road to full recovery and expansion. That’s why when this pandemic is brought under control and managed, it’s critical that the government quickly step back, and allow freedom, the private sector and the economy to, once again, flourish and grow. In contrast, if we choose to persist with increased government controls and intervention, the U.S. will surely be sentenced to economic decline, with real and significant costs for all.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York– signed books or for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

This Economist’s 4 Top Coronavirus Concerns

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 31, 2020

Coronavirus concerns continue to mount in terms of illnesses, deaths, and the economy. And unfortunately, it promises to get much worse, before it gets better.

As for those who have been touting this as not a big deal – you know, saying it’s not as bad as the flu, and/or asserting that U.S. businesses and the economy will get back to work in a couple of weeks – they’ve proven to be more grossly ill-informed than the rest of us who are trying to navigate these uncharted waters.

Some of the politics have reached new depths of, well, stupidity – and that’s saying something. It’s been sad to see so many people peddling the idea that the warnings about the coronavirus had nothing to do with science and the track record of the virus in other nations, but instead, claimed that it was some kind of political conspiracy. By the way, one almost has to admire the steadfastness among some of them, as they continue to make such bizarre claims even as the cases mount in the United States. (Geez, just how deep does this conspiracy run?)

Looking ahead, here are my 4 top concerns as an economist and a human being:

1) The top concern and priority – and the reason that so much of the economy has been shut down – remains working to limit and stop the spread of the coronavirus, and its impact in terms of those infected, the numbers needing hospitalization, and of course, the tragic deaths. If you’re not operating from that as a first principle, then there’s something wrong with you. Unfortunately, even as the virus continues to spread in the U.S., an assortment of commentators callously emphasize the need for businesses to re-open now and for people to get back to work immediately, with some even questioning why state and local government officials have taken the actions they have. Yes, there are concerns about what the government is doing, but those are legitimate worries over the longer haul – as I will note in a moment – not in terms of the largely necessary steps that have been taken so far in the name of saving lives.

2) As the coronavirus continues to spread across the globe, the broader move into developing countries could turn into something far worse than what’s been seen in assorted developed nations, given how weak – or nearly nonexistent – health care systems and services are in those countries. The work for all of us will not stop when matters are brought down to manageable levels in the U.S.

3) The immediate drop in the U.S. economy promises to be historic. The government’s call to shut down large swathes of economic activity was the right one, and the massive aid bill (CARES Act) that was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump was necessary (though certainly not everything in it was needed or even related to what’s going on) to limit some of the short-term pain. But the downturn in the economy that started in March promises to be historic, and likely will last at least into the third quarter of this year – no matter the short-run aid doled out by the government.

4) The same short-run aid provided by government will serve as a longer run negative for the economy. Anytime government drains resources from the private sector (as is the case with this massive federal package), whether via borrowing or taxes, it will serve as an economic negative. So, while the CARES Act will help many in the short run (assuming government executes matters quickly – a big assumption), the same measure promises to restrain on any economic recovery. 

And the economic recovery/expansion that hopefully starts late this year or early next will be further hampered if the current expansion of government controls are not rolled back fully. The surest path to a slow recovery – or even a double-dip recession – would involve politicians feeling empowered to spend, regulate, borrow and tax more, along with the Fed continuing to believe in its nonexistent ability to manage the economy. That’s a recipe for long-run economic decline. Indeed, this very phenomenon coming out of the late-2007-to-mid-2009 recession meant that the subsequent recovery/expansion period turned out to be grossly under-performing in terms of economic growth.

Our focus currently needs to be on saving lives, and when things are under control at home, helping those in other countries. This is what the United States does. That’s all vital from a love-our-fellow-man perspective, as well as, secondarily so, an economic viewpoint. Looking a bit further down the road, our humanitarian and economic concerns further coalesce in that we need government to then step back, and allow the private sector to invest, recover and grow, and trade to flourish – thereby creating businesses and jobs, driving up incomes, and creating the wealth that will allow us to aid others around the world and be better prepared for future crises.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York– signed books or for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

The Realities of the Coronavirus Economy

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 25, 2020

Just in case any doubts lingered about government’s ability to destroy business and economic activity, while at the same time being completely incapable of ginning up the economy, the coronavirus should wipe them away.

Indeed, most slowdowns, recessions and depressions are about government doing something stupid, and then trying to fix the problem with the wrong responses.

What’s different with the government’s response to the spreading coronavirus is that elected officials chose to shut down large chunks of the economy. That is, rather than creating a recession by mistake, this time, it was done on purpose. And quite frankly, in terms of the severe health care risks, there’s not much else that government could do under the circumstances.

But that doesn’t mean that there have not been and will not be brutal costs involved with this government-ordered recession. Consider that Goldman Sachs has predicted that the U.S. economy will shrink by 24 percent in the second quarter of this year, after a decline of 6 percent in the first quarter. If this turns out to be the result, that’s never happened before. On the brighter side (really?), Goldman’s economists look for growth to bounce back to 12 percent in the third quarter and 10 percent in the fourth.

Responses to the current state of affairs vary widely. Let’s consider two groups. Voices from Group 1 proclaim that the government’s actions went too far, and the economy needs to be quickly “re-opened.” And Group 2 awaits the passage and signing into law of some kind of salvation via a massive federal government aid package (likely to happen today, or the next day or two). This package will tally up to more than $2 trillion. Basically, both are wrong.

The problem with Group 1 is that they downplay the harsh realities of the coronavirus, including the potential deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans if this is not stomped down. The coronavirus must be made manageable, and then the restrictions on business and individuals can be lifted. 

As for Group 2 and a massive government aid package, a few points must be considered. First, in the short run, it makes sense for government to step up to help people thrown out of work, and businesses torpedoed and sank by government shutting down the economy on purpose. And we all hope that government somehow overcomes its inherent waste and inefficiencies to provide some much-needed assistance. But no one should be surprised by delays, foul ups and special-interests grabbing resources – that’s government.

Second, the current situation doesn’t mean we can wish away economic reality. Government aid dollars do not appear magically out of thin air. Instead, they are drained from the private sector. So, it must be noted that this massive aid package over the longer haul will serve to inflict additional damage on our economy. The best case scenario for this aid effort is that it manages to alleviate a chunk of the short-run severity, while we must recognize the added woes it will bring over the longer run.

There is no clear way to deal with the coronavirus in terms of its effects on jobs, businesses and the economy. We’re kind of feeling our way step by step each day, and for the most part, up until now, it’s hard to disagree with most of the actions taken. In the coming months, it will be about limiting the downside – again, even while recognizing that the damage promises to be deep and severe. 

As for the economy snapping back, there should be some of that late this year and into 2021. But the coronavirus itself and the coronavirus economy will not just go away with a flip of the switch. The effects promise to linger some, with a longer road to full recovery than perhaps many are expecting right now. And that recovery depends upon government doing the right thing and not making matters worse – always a dicey proposition.

The worst case scenario would be extending government interference in the economy due to the coronavirus emergency into the post-coronavirus period. Once we’ve reached that point where the virus is being managed properly, government needs to quickly step back and shrink, so that entrepreneurs, businesses, investors and workers are free to get back to innovating, working, investing, and growing businesses, the economy, income and jobs.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Is the U.S. in a Recession Right Now?

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 17, 2020

Unfortunately, with each passing day and further steps being taken by government to deal with the coronavirus/COVID-19, it becomes clearer that the U.S. is in a recession right now. Indeed, government actions – while largely necessary to limit the damage of this pandemic – have in effect shutdown significant chunks of our economy.

Yet, assorted analysts and business media keep talking about a possible recession arriving in the second quarter of this year and extending into the third quarter. But let’s keep in mind that we are still in the first quarter right now, and the economy clearly has hit the brakes.

For good measure, as I noted a week ago, contrary to what people had talked themselves into regarding the pre-coronavirus economy, growth slowed notably over the past five quarters, in which real GDP growth averaged only 2.1 percent. Most critically, real business investment declined in each of the last three quarters, and trade has been a drag on growth for two years. So, the economy wasn’t exactly roaring when we ran into the coronavirus.

Business investment now seems to be in freefall, along with trade, and toss in workers being told to stay home and commensurately reining in their spending, and it’s hard to see how a recession has not already started.

Keep in mind, by the way, that the back-of-the-envelope definition of a recession is at least two successive quarters of negative GDP growth. However, the official start and end dates of recessions are determined, based on an assortment of factors, by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

No one knows how the coronavirus and its effects are going to fully play out, but it seems like a safe bet to see this anti-virus effort extending into the summer, and with it, a recession – even with federal government so-called “stimulus” efforts. With little confidence, the best guess-timate from this economist is that the recession began this month, and will last into the third quarter of this year. But it also must be noted that if entrepreneurs, businesses and investors get a strong whiff of more anti-growth policymaking emerging from the November’s presidential and congressional elections, then the recession could last longer, or the threat of a double-dip recession – that is, the recession ends with a brief period of growth, followed by another downturn – looms in the distance.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York – signed booksor for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

11 Point Guide to Working at Home

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 13, 2020

With so many businesses having employees working from home due to the coronavirus, my response is: “Welcome!” I’ve had a home office for just about 29 years. It’s kind of sobering to ponder, but the work-at-home gig began for me way back in 1991.

With this long track record, here’s a quick 11-point guide to working from home based on my experiences.

1. You Better Love Your Job. If you don’t enjoy, are indifferent, or positively dislike your job, then working from home might not go so well. Working in your house or apartment means that all kinds of interesting distractions lurk, from binging Netflix, getting lost online, playing with the dog, or suddenly being interested in chores around the house – from cleaning the gutters to fixing the bathroom toilet. If you don’t like your work, those distractions can become quite tempting.

2. Carve Out a Workspace. Working from home and Wi-Fi allows for getting stuff done on your laptop probably anywhere in your home – and I certainly do that. However, the most productive time usually is found in an actual home office. Since the coronavirus has people working at home who normally don’t, you might not have the space for an actual office. But other spots around the house can work in a pinch, such as a dining room or kitchen table, or even a bedroom. But if working at home is going to be for a long haul, space away from the traffic of daily life is a big plus.

3. Boost Productivity by Focusing on Objectives, Goals and Completing Projects, Not the Clock. Working from home shouldn’t mean doing the 9-to-5 thing. Instead, the home office – away from the traditional workplace setting – allows for focusing on accomplishing objectives or goals, such as completing projects, and then perhaps taking a break – even a quick jaunt to the park or beach – before moving on to the next item on the to-do list. It’s about meeting deadlines, not about the exact time spent at the desk.

4. Eliminating Meaningless Meetings. Productivity also gets a boost thanks to, for the most part, eliminating the plague of meaningless, wasteful meetings. Meetings generally suck up time and grind work to a near halt. (Can you tell I hate meetings?) Working at home means few, if any, meetings, and that’s productivity heaven.

5. Discipline and Deadlines Rock. My time as a weekly newspaper columnist taught me the many benefits of being disciplined, in particular, via deadlines. Lots of people (most?) don’t like deadlines, but when embraced, deadlines not only require discipline with time and effort (that is, less waste), but actually benefit creativity. Too often, when working independently, delay can become the default setting, and nothing gets done. Nothing getting done means, by definition, no creativity. Deadlines mean that projects must get done, and this winds up serving as an impetus to creativity.

6. Independence Required. Whether faced by something like the coronavirus or being considered for other reasons, working from home requires the ability to work independently. If that’s not you, then you need to learn quickly or suffer accordingly.

7. Enjoy the Flexibility. While the 9-to-5 workplace can be rather regimented, one of the great benefits of having a home office is flexibility. This goes back to the aforementioned focusing on getting projects done and goals met, rather than being a slave to the clock. A project focus means far greater workday flexibility, and that is one of the great benefits of working at home. Indeed, enjoy the flexibility.

8. From Commuting to What? Working at home eliminates the commute. I went from commuting to lower Manhattan – almost two hours each way every day – to no commute at all. It pays to think about how to use that time gained in ways that improve your life. The key is to make it a conscious decision; otherwise, opportunities – whether on the career front or in family life, for example – can be lost.

9. Don’t Let Work Take Over. As I noted earlier, enjoying your work is crucial when working at home. However, it then can be easy to let your work takeover or crowd out other aspects of your life. This is a work-at-home risk that you need to guard against.

10. Great Tunes. Working at home allows for working in a manner that can improve your outlook and productivity, but also in a way that perhaps wouldn’t cut it in a more traditional workplace. For me, it’s music. Music has a powerful effect on my mood and outlook, so I have assorted playlists at the ready to get me in the right frame of mind to, in my case, write. And yes, I play it loud.

11. Start a Business? Finally, use time working at home due to the coronavirus to explore opportunities. Namely, use this as a test run to see if becoming an entrepreneur is for you. If the working independently and creatively thing holds great appeal, then explore starting up a business. That doesn’t mean that you have to quit the fulltime gig – indeed, most of us cannot afford to do so – but your own business can be fulfilling in many ways, can supplement the family income, and can eventually become what you do fulltime. If you’ve ever thought about being an entrepreneur, then a stint of working from home can help you decide.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York– signed books or for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

A Coronavirus Recession Likely

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 10, 2020

Whether the coronavirus meets the worst or best of expectations in the United States, it’s difficult to see how a recession is missed – or at best, narrowly avoided with growth slowing to a crawl.

Consider that despite the happy talk – or tweets – emerging from assorted political sources, the U.S. economy has not been rocking and rolling. In fact, after some respectable growth numbers from mid-2017 through the third quarter of 2018, the economy has slowed notably since, with real GDP growth averaging only 2.1 percent over the past five quarters.

For good measure, real business investment (as well as overall private investment) has declined in the past three quarters (i.e., the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2019), and trade has been drag on the economy for the past two years.

Finally, much of economic growth over the past two-plus years has been about the consumer. However, the consumer is a follower, not a leader. Consumers take their cues from what’s going on with business. That is, if new enterprises are being started, and businesses are investing and hiring, then consumers are pleased and spending. While entrepreneurship has been lagging, businesses have been hiring. But given the recent decline in business investment and the uncertainties of the coronavirus, business investment is likely to continue to falter, in the near term, and along with it, now, hiring.

To sum up, when you look at the current status and coming months, there’s little positive to see for major sections of the U.S. economy. Private investment is likely to continue to falter (or at best stagnate), trade will continue to be a drag, and the consumer is likely to be hunkering down. That combines to spell either a recession or no growth in the short term.

Another question to ponder: Is the U.S. well-positioned from a policy standpoint so that economic growth snaps back afterwards – either later this year or into 2021? Consider that we were not positioned to do so after the last recession, and have since suffered through an under-performing recovery/expansion period since mid-2009. Quick answer? Trade policy remains anti-growth, as does government spending (with big spending increases over the last two years). Taxes generally have been a policy positive since December 2017. The regulatory story has been mixed, but overall a net plus. And monetary policy remains unhinged from economic reality, with the hope being that Fed cluelessness continues to be corrected or ignored by the private sector.

Oh yes, and then there’s this presidential and congressional election thing coming in November?

Snap back or no, then? It’s hard to tell. My best guess is that a short recession or no-growth period is followed by a short snap back, and then barring some strong pro-growth policy changes, the economy falls back into the slow-growth scenario that we’ve suffered under for too long.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

The Fed is Impotent

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 2, 2020

All sorts of talking heads and incessant Tweeters in politics and on Wall Street cry out for the Fed to act in the face of the spreading coronavirus. Specifically, they call for the Fed to cut interest rates (i.e., the federal funds rate) and do another round of quantitative easing (i.e., pumping more money out the door).

As markets have dropped due to uncertainty swirling around the coronavirus, it’s painfully ridiculous to assume that the Fed could do anything to make a difference. But politicians and many in the financial industry have bought into the mistaken assumption that the Fed is some kind of all-powerful entity when it comes to the economy. 

That most assuredly is not the case. In fact, the Fed has proven to be impotent for at least a dozen years now.

Consider that since the late summer 2008, the Fed has been running insanely loose monetary policy – so loose that is has no precedent in U.S. history – and yet we suffered through one of the worst, if not the worst, recession since the Great Depression, and a grossly underperforming recovery/expansion period since mid-2009.

For example, the Fed expanded the monetary base - that is, the sum of currency in circulation and reserve balances (deposits held by banks and other depository institutions in their accounts at the Federal Reserve) from $875 billion in August 2008 to $3.45 trillion in February 2020 (actually topping $4 trillion at points in 2014 and 2015). At the same time, excess bank reserves went from a mere $1.9 billion in August 2008 to $1.5 trillion in February 2020. Even with the Fed reining things in the monetary base a tad from September 2017 to September 2019, there remains no lack of liquidity. 

Meanwhile, real GDP growth has averaged a rather woeful 2.3 percent since mid-2009. That compares to average growth of 3.6 percent that prevailed from 1950 to 2007, and during recovery/expansion years over that period, the average had been 4.4 percent. That is, real economic growth has been running at nearly half of what it should since mid-2009.

Nonetheless, apologists will proclaim that the Fed somehow saved the U.S. economy during the 2008-09 mess and afterwards. In reality, the best that could be said about Fed monetary policy since 2008 is that it made no difference. More likely, such unprecedented looseness added to the uncertainty that contributed to sluggish growth.

And now the Fed’s minions are looking for a further loosening of monetary policy. Their answers, though, to questions as to how this would actually make a difference in the current situation remains, to be generous, elusive.

The Fed can do nothing positive while this unfortunate coronavirus scenario plays out – indeed, nor can the White House or Congress (other than accelerating the drug approval process for pharmaceutical companies). However, poor decisions certainly could create further negatives now and after the coronavirus fades away to become a grave and unfortunate memory.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.