For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...

Thursday, April 30, 2020

Last Day - Get in on the April Prize Drawing!


Purchase anything - any book or set of books, for example - at RayKeatingOnline.com, and be automatically entered in a prize drawing for a FREE one-year subscription to the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship, which includes receiving all Pastor Stephen Grant novels and short stories published over the coming year for FREE. Wow! 

Wednesday, April 29, 2020

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #3: Interviewing Pastor Tyrel Bramwell, the Host of “Alone Together”


Ray Keating tries to bring some respectability to the PRESS CLUB C Podcast with a guest – and a pastor no less! Ray interviews Pastor Tyrel Bramwell, who, in addition to being a parish pastor and author, hosts a fascinating daily video program called “Alone Together: A 15-Minute Isolation Conversation,” in which he interviews pastors across the nation. Pastor Bramwell and Ray talk about the purpose of the show and where it might be headed, as well as Ty’s church and books, the issue of technology and the Church, and more!

Tune in here, or click on the icon above.

Tuesday, April 28, 2020

Marvel Movies Box Office Battle on National Superhero Day

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – April 28, 2020

(I originally published this piece at my DisneyBizJournal.com site, but thought it would be worth posting at the Keating Files as well. It’s hopefully a fun read!)

Today, April 28, is “National Superhero Day.” And on this date, it seems fitting to get into one of those arguments many of us engaged in as kids. You know, who is the best superhero? This superhero could beat up this other superhero. Oh, yeah? And so on. 


Except we’re going to narrow our fighting words, so to speak, to how powerful the various Marvel Cinematic Universe’s superheroes have been at the box office. Where do Disney’s MCU movies rank in terms of the amount of revenue raked in at the box office? 

The answer can be found in the following table, which ranks each of the 23 Marvel movies (so far) according to the estimated worldwide box office numbers in 2019 inflation-adjusted U.S. dollars.


Rank – 
Real Box Office
Release Date
MCU Film
Worldwide Box Office – 
Estimated in Real 
2019 US Dollars
1
4/26/19
Avengers: Endgame
$2,797,800,564 
2
4/27/18
Avengers: Infinity War
$2,085,474,952 
3
5/4/12
The Avengers
$1,691,224,912 
4
5/1/15
Avengers: Age of Ultron
$1,513,352,493 
5
2/16/18
Black Panther
$1,371,318,517 
6
5/3/13
Iron Man 3
$1,333,823,823 
7
5/6/16
Captain America: Civil War
$1,228,486,127 
8
3/8/19
Captain Marvel
$1,129,729,839 
9
7/2/19
Spider-Man: Far From Home
$1,129,210,469 
10
7/7/17
Spider-Man: Homecoming
$918,001,794 
11
5/5/17
Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2
$906,473,402 
12
11/3/17
Thor: Ragnarok
$890,667,135 
13
8/1/14
Guardians of the Galaxy
$834,535,230 
14
4/4/14
Captain America: The Winter Soldier
$771,499,819 
15
5/7/10
Iron Man 2
$728,266,984 
16
11/4/16
Doctor Strange
$720,510,624 
17
11/8/13
Thor: The Dark World
$707,414,562 
18
5/2/08
Iron Man
$694,849,347 
19
7/6/18
Ant-Man and the Wasp
$634,435,712 
20
7/17/15
Ant-Man
$559,663,516 
21
5/6/11
Thor
$510,687,219 
22
6/22/11
Captain America: The First Avenger
$421,175,245 
23
6/13/08
The Incredible Hulk
$315,349,958 
Source: Data from the-numbers.com. Calculations by author.

I guess no one should be surprised by the fact that The Avengers: Earth’s Mightiest Heroes have proven to be mightiest at the box office.

Of course, what a ranking like this leads to is the inevitable “Yeah, but...” debate. In particular, yeah, but this doesn’t mean that this ranking necessarily reflects a ranking of the best MCU films. Let that debate begin! I’ll start by noting that I think that the top five MCU movies (not necessarily in order) are: Captain America: The Winter Soldier, Captain America: The First Avenger, Avengers: Endgame, Avengers: Infinity War, and Guardians of the Galaxy.

And thankfully, there are more Marvel movies on the way to add to the incredible box office tally – in 2019 dollars, the MCU films have earned a total of $23.9 billion, so far – and to spice up the debate about which are the best and worst movies in the series.

And if you’re looking ahead, here’s the latest announced Marvel universe movies with scheduled release dates (according to Disney and various media reports):

Black Widow – November 6, 2020
The Eternals – February 12, 2021
Shang Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings – May 7, 2021
Spider-Man 3 – November 5, 2021 
Thor: Love and Thunder – February 11, 2022
Doctor Strange and the Multiverse of Madness – March 25, 2022
Black Panther II – May 6, 2022
Captain Marvel 2 – June 8, 2022
Ant-Man 3 – no date announced
Guardians of the Galaxy 3 – no date announced

Enjoy, and happy National Superhero Day!

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcastand the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

National Superhero Day is the perfect time to read Ray Keating’s HEROES AND VILLAINS: A PASTOR STEPHEN GRANT SHORT STORY. The Kindle editionis on sale for only $2.99!

Monday, April 27, 2020

Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – April 27, 2020

We live in a strange political time, to say the least. And one of the oddest phenomena I’ve witnessed is pushback against the idea of voting according to one’s conscience. Um, really?


In fact, if you mention during a discussion that you plan to vote for a third-party candidate or write in someone during a presidential election, the response, more often than not, is the following: Why would you waste your vote? That reaction raises interesting questions about what a “wasted vote” looks like.

First, it must be noted, as public choice economists remind us, that since your single vote will not decide an election (the chances are infinitesimal), it’s perfectly rational to not vote. Indeed, we are free to vote or not to vote in this country. 

Acknowledging the reality of one’s vote not deciding an election, then why do I vote? Well, I recognize that my fellow citizens – my neighbors – and I do come together to decide who our governmental representatives will be, and that matters very much in terms of a host of policies and issues affecting each of our lives. And I understand that this right to vote is exceptional in the history of the world, and that many of my fellow Americans have risked everything to protect this freedom to vote. Indeed, voting in a free and fair election is special, and reaches beyond the pure economic or statistical argument about one vote not deciding the outcome of an election.

Given how precious this right to vote is, then how can anyone do any less than vote according to conscience? 

Of course, a vote according to conscience can take various forms. The most obvious, and easiest, is to simply cast your vote for one of the two major party candidates – Republican or Democrat – who creates no significant issues or questions for one’s conscience. That’s been the case for me, fortunately, during five of the nine presidential elections in which I’ve voted.

Then there’s the case when voting against one of the major party candidates seems to be the primary impetus in the voting booth. 

For example, during the 2016 presidential campaign, which did not have an incumbent running, voting against a candidate ran much stronger than in the previous non-incumbent election. In the September before the 2016 presidential election, Pew Research found that among those supporting the Republican, 53 percent were voting against Democrat Hillary Clinton and 44 percent for Republican Donald Trump. That compared to 35 percent voting against Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 59 percent for Republican John McCain. Meanwhile, as for those supporting the Democrat, 46 percent were voting against Trump and 53 percent for Clinton in 2016, versus 25 percent against McCain and 68 percent for Obama in 2008.

Understanding that politicians are, well, politicians, I get the idea of voting against someone. But by doing so, if you pull the lever for the opposing major-party candidate, for example, then you’re effectively voting for that candidate. And if your conscience turns out, even after much wrestling, to be okay with who you’re pulling the lever for, so be it. That was the case for me in two presidential elections.

But what about the case where voting for either candidate would go against conscience? That was the situation confronting me in two presidential elections. There was no candidate on the ballot to vote for – either explicitly for or de facto for by voting against the other candidate – who didn’t trouble my conscience. So, in each case, I followed my conscience, and wrote in my choice.

Those write-in votes, contrary to widespread opinion, were in no way wasted votes. How could any vote be wasted when voting according to your conscience? Indeed, I’m completely baffled by such accusations.

While he spoke on theological matters, I think of the Christian reformer Martin Luther on this topic, with his famous quote: “I cannot and will not recant anything, for to go against conscience is neither right nor safe. Here I stand, I can do no other, so help me God. Amen.”

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

Sunday, April 26, 2020

Thumbs Up For BEHIND ENEMY LINES


In his new book BEHIND ENEMY LINES: CONSERVATIVE COMMUNIQUES FROM LEFT-WING NEW YORK, Ray Keating serves up a wide-ranging collection of columns and essays covering politics, economics, faith, conservatism, history, trade, New York, foreign affairs, immigration, pop culture, business, sports, books, and more. 

Paperbacks and the Kindle editions are at Amazon via https://www.amazon.com/dp/B086PN1NNZ

Friday, April 24, 2020

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #2: Don’t Waste Your Vote, More Star Wars, Picard – Good or Bad?, Coronavirus Divisions, and NFL Draft Observations



PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #2: Don’t Waste Your Vote, More Star Wars, Picard – Good or Bad?, Coronavirus Divisions, and NFL Draft Observations – Ray Keating is on a roll in this second episode. First, he wants to know why voting according to your conscience is considered a bad thing? He also gets his sci-fi nerd on with Star Wars and Picard. Keating is annoyed by coronavirus politics, but he also is enjoying the NFL Draft, including what the Jets, Packers and Vikings did in the first round.

Tune in here or click on graphic above.

Wednesday, April 22, 2020

7 Reasons to Get Excited about the NFL Draft

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – April 22, 2020

Count me among the severely sports starved during the current period of self-isolation. And therefore, I’m excited – probably too excited – about the NFL Draft. 


Let’s take a moment to consider reasons why this Minnesota Vikings fan has been donning purple and gold each day in the home office this week, including Vikes jerseys, hats, sweatshirts, and tees. It’s largely about what I’ve been missing, but also what I can look forward to as a fan.

First, I know it sounds like typical baseball Spring Training optimism, but this Cincinnati Reds fan really was getting excited about the moves made over the offseason. This was supposed to be a big year for the Reds – and hopefully, it still will – but hope has been put on hold since spring baseball came to a halt on March 12.

Second, I’m one of those people who not only enjoys playing golf, but also watching it on television. Yes, I’ve been known to shout at the TV when a putt is sunk or missed. But the last PGA Tour stop was the Arnold Palmer Invitational, which finished up on March 8. And The Masters not being played in April was simply depressing.

Third, the last NBA game was played on March 11. Well, okay, I’m not a fan of the NBA, so I don’t really care. In fact, I can’t remember the last time I watched the NBA. But I’m sure that there are lots of people out there that miss the NBA, and they’re probably sad. So, there’s that.

Fourth, I do enjoy hockey, however, and the last time the puck was dropped in an NHL game also was on March 11. Though my own San Jose Sharks were destined this year for a rare postseason miss, playoff hockey always rocks, but we have no idea when or if that will now happen for the 2019-20 season.

Fifth, the NFL Draft always gains a degree of attention from this fan, varying year to year. But this draft could be major for my Vikings. The team has lost an assortment of players on the defensive side of the ball, including starting cornerbacks, who largely played lousy football last season anyway. In addition, trading Stefon Diggs to the Bills leaves a big vacancy at wide receiver. But the good news is that Vikes have 12 – count ‘em 12 – picks in this draft, including two first round picks. This jacks up the interest in the 2020 draft. 

Sixth, focusing on the draft means getting me focused on reasons to rant as a fan. When the hell are the Vikings going to win a Super Bowl? I know this is unpopular, but I’m not exactly enthralled with Coach Mike Zimmer. Everybody calls him a defensive guru, but I’m not seeing it. Zimmer has a great attitude as a coach, but quite frankly, he appears rather conventional and unable to adjust in terms of the Vikings defense. And as head coach, he ranks as a negative in terms of the offense. Zimmer has come up short in terms of fully utilizing the talent on the team, so what’s going to happen with an influx of draftees?

In contrast, unlike many, I like Kirk Cousins as our quarterback. He has the tools to get the job done, if he had consistency in terms of offensive coaches and schemes. 

That’s right, I’m pro-Cousins and skeptical on Zimmer. Come at me!

Seventh, the truly big deal with the NFL Draft 2020, of course, is that this is something that finally matters in the world of sports. There’s only so much streaming of non-sports viewing a sports fan can do. I look at my phone for scores, and there are none. But at least for this week, I’ve caught some draft analysis, and on Thursday night, Friday night, and much of the day on Saturday, I can take in the NFL Draft, and assess what my team and key opponents might look like in the 2020 season. Like I said, I’m excited.

What about after Sunday? Well, I’ll be back to waiting for sports, and perhaps turning to streaming. Maybe it’s finally time to catch up on years of television shows that I meant to watch but never got around to seeing. That’s a pretty long list – including Mad MenStar Trek: DiscoveryLost, and all of those Marvel shows on Netflix (Daredevil (I did see season 1 and it was excellent), Jessica Jones, Luke Cage, Punisher, Iron Fist, and Defenders). Actually, I love great storytelling via television and movie, but also via sports – and I miss the thrills, surprises, heartbreaks, drama, action, and joys of catching my teams in action.

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

Ray Keating Launches “PRESS CLUB C Podcast”

Keating Hopes to Engage Listeners Given His Experiences as an Economist, Novelist, Nonfiction Author, Entrepreneur, and Fan of Lots of Things

Long Island, NY – Today, a new podcast – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast – was launched by Ray Keating, who is an economist, columnist, novelist, nonfiction book author, entrepreneur, and former college professor. Keating also hosts the “Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast.”


What does PRESS CLUB C stand for or mean? Keating notes, “Each letter in each word explains the many topics that will be discussed by myself and assorted guests across episodes of the podcast.” Those topics are as follows: 

Politics
Religion (namely, Christian topics)
Economics
Sports
Stories (that is, writing, books, fiction and nonfiction, and author interviews)

Culture (pop culture and otherwise)
Life (the big catch all)
Understanding (lessons in an assortment of areas, including history)
Business and entrepreneurship

Conservative (Keating is a self-described traditional, American, Reagan-esque conservative)

The description for the first episode is: “Episode #1: Conservatism, the Coronavirus Economy, the NFL Draft 2020, and What the Heck is PRESS CLUB C Anyway?" – What the heck is PRESS CLUB C? Ray Keating explains, while also talking self-indulgently about himself and his interests. But he eventually puts aside the navel-gazing, and gets around to talking about some topics. Keating explains what conservatism is, or should be, and reflects upon some key points regarding the coronavirus economy. And then as a sports-starved fan, Ray gets downright emotional thinking about the upcoming NFL Draft 2020, and then winds up ranting about his Minnesota Vikings. Four Super Bowl losses with no wins have been tough on Ray over the years.”

Keating explains: “Given my work and interests, there’s so much to discuss, explore and have fun with, including being an economist, columnist, novelist, nonfiction book author, some kind of podcaster, entrepreneur and former college professor, as well as my assorted interests, like baseball (Reds fan), football (Vikings fan), hockey (Sharks fan), books, movies, television, streaming, writing, comic books, business and entrepreneurship, the Walt Disney Company, history, golf, music, and more! I hope to engage listeners in a host of areas, while not taking myself, at least, too seriously.”

The PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating can be heard on Buzzsprout, at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and Player FM, among podcast venues.

Keating’s most recent books are Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York,The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, and Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Some of his latest columns and articles can be read at KeatingFiles.com and at DisneyBizJournal.com. 

Contact: Ray Keating
Twitter: @FreeEnterprise7

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #1: Conservatism, the Coronavirus Economy, the NFL Draft 2020, and What the Heck is PRESS CLUB C Anyway?


Ray Keating kicks off a new podcast. But what the heck is PRESS CLUB C? 

Keating explains, while also talking self-indulgently about himself and his interests. But he eventually puts aside the navel-gazing, and gets around to talking about some topics. Keating explains what conservatism is, or should be, and reflects upon some key points regarding the coronavirus economy. And then as a sports-starved fan, Ray gets downright emotional thinking about the upcoming NFL Draft 2020, and then winds up ranting about his Minnesota Vikings. Four Super Bowl losses with no wins has been tough on Ray over the years.

Please tune in here or click on the graphic above, and, Yes, tell everyone you know!

Monday, April 20, 2020

Experts and Politicians Get Slapped Down by Oil Markets

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – April 20, 2020

The nice thing about saying stuff on television that doesn’t make much economic sense is that there’s often considerable lag time before the cold slap of economic reality hits. The same goes for politicians’ mistaken utterances on the economy, whether on TV or not. But on rare occasions, economic reality arrives almost immediately.


The peddlers of economic ignorance usually can escape with their reputations largely intact because by the time their wrongheadedness becomes clear, everyone has moved on to another topic. Indeed, politics, the media and the economics profession are over-populated by experts who consistently get their economics wrong, yet their views are still sought. Go figure.

Apparently, though, the oil markets were having none of this, as the price of oil descended into uncharted territory on Monday (April 20). The May crude oil futures price closed at $18.27 a barrel on Friday (April 17), but ended Monday’s session at negative $37.63. In effect, that would mean that oil sellers would have to pay buyers to take oil off their hands. Wow.

That’s endlessly fascinating for traders and economists alike. But what’s kind of humorous is how much time CNBC, for example, spent on the need for Russia and Saudi Arabia, along with the United States and Mexico in the mix, to agree to oil production cuts earlier this month. The deal was close to being done as oil markets were closing on Thursday, April 9, and then the “historic” and “unprecedented” deal was finalized on Sunday, April 12. 

CNBC reported on its website:

“This is at least a temporary relief for the energy industry and for the global economy,” Rystad Energy’s head of analysis Per Magnus Nysveen told CNBC in an email. “Even though the production cuts are smaller than what the market needed and only postpone the stock building constraints problem, the worst is for now avoided.”

CNBC also highlighted President Trump’s tweet: “The big Oil Deal with OPEC Plus is done. This will save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States. I would like to thank and congratulate President Putin of Russia and King Salman of Saudi Arabia. I just spoke to them from the Oval Office. Great deal for all!”

And on April 15, CNBC interviewed U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette. He said, “Think about what would have happened in the alternative had there been instead of a cut of 10 million on the part of OPEC and OPEC+, what if that number had been zero, what would we be looking at today suggests that it’s probably something much lower than where we are. And I think we may be at a floor. I think the intent of this conversation with OPEC and the rest of the G-20 countries is simply to do exactly that, to mitigate.”

The “Whoops” moments clearly have been stacking up.

I often have CNBC on in the background in my office, and as I shook my head at all of the time being spent on this deal, one anchor – Kelly Evans – finally put forth a relevant question. She basically asked: If this deal is happening, why does the price of oil keep falling?

Well, there you go. The obvious question with an obvious answer.

The price of oil has been declining since late February ($53.38 a barrel on February 21), and continued through and after the “historic” production deal ($22.41 on April 13 and, again, $18.27 on April 17), and went into freefall on April 20 because of the coronavirus and governmental responses that have crushed the economy, drying up oil demand and creating enormous uncertainty looking ahead as to when the U.S. and the rest of the world might get back on a growth track.

Anyone with minimal knowledge of how supply and demand works understood that the Russia-Saudi-U.S. production deal meant nothing. Markets clearly were dictating that oil production would have to decline, since there was little demand and nowhere for production to go. Duh.

But what the heck. Even though markets taught a quick, harsh lesson in economics this time around, few are likely to pay much attention, and misguided views on economics and markets will still be sought, spouted off, and forgotten.

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?