Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 24, 2020

 

Politics is prone to people fooling themselves. Poll watching can become part of this self-deception when it degrades into highlighting polls that favor your candidate, and tossing aside polls that favor the other guy or gal. Fooling oneself also becomes evident when history is twisted to fit a preferred political narrative.

 

This phenomenon infects many Trump supporters this year in three particular ways.

First, highlighting some polls and ignoring others is a choice that seems to be running rampant among Trump supporters. Why? With Election Day only ten days away, the national polls have President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by significant numbers. 

 

As a race comes down to the end, if one is looking at polling in a serious way, then the key is to watch averages of recent polls, rather than grabbing that one poll that reflects what you want to happen.

 

Looking at averages, Biden leads Trump right now by 8-9 percentage points. That’s a  daunting deficit for the president, especially at this late point in the race.

 

The second mistake when watching political polls has to do with misinterpreting history. Many Trump supporters, for example, have latched onto the idea that the polls in 2016 were dead wrong, so they will be this year, too. In reality, the national polls in 2016 were correct, as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by 48.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Factor in the margins of error present in all polling, and the national polls were pretty much spot on. 

 

The problem in 2016 came with state polls in three states, and those states broke unexpectedly and very narrowly for Trump, gaining him the White House, i.e., Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Taking note of these states this year, the task for the president remains formidable. Biden holds solid leads, again, looking at poll averages, in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

 

Misinterpreting history also is the third problem this year. There’s a great deal of talk about how Ronald Reagan was trailing Jimmy Carter in 1980, but then the race broke late for Reagan, after the last presidential debate, and he went on to a big win. 

 

Yes, Reagan did win big in 1980 (thankfully!). However, when you look at the polls in total, Reagan really hadn’t been trailing Carter since May of that year. Yes, the race tightened and widened over those subsequent five-plus months, and a poll here and there put Carter up, but Reagan never fell behind when looking at the polls in full.

 

Consider the following chart presented in a 2012 analysis. Eight years ago, Romney folks also were grasping at the idea of a late comeback by Reagan.

As the author, John Sides, noted: “ The plot shows … the ebbing of Carter’s poll standing throughout 1980.  Indeed, Reagan didn’t need his convention bump — which he certainly got — to put him in the lead.  The Democratic convention helped erode Reagan’s lead but it never closed it altogether.”

 

So, where does the Reagan story come from? Gallup, actually. Their polling before the last Carter-Reagan debate (held on October 28) put Carter up by 8 points, but that was among registered voters. The same poll had Carter up by only 3 points (within the margin of error) among likely voters, which is the more substantive polling measure. And again, this was one poll, ignoring the full polling picture at the time.

 

Can the polls be wrong? Of course. But it’s the exception. In the end, it’s about who comes out to vote. And that’s part of what pollsters try to figure out. But outside of an agenda-driven survey here and there, polling data is not the arbitrary, manipulative tool that it often gets labeled as – especially by those who happen to be trailing in the polls.

 

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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Pre-order the forthcoming Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/vaticanshadows and the Kindle Edition at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08L1HLRP3

 

Also, choose your 2021 TO DO List planner today, and enjoy the pre-order sale! Perfect for you and as Christmas gifts. Choose between The Lutheran Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, The Film Buff’s Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, and The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution. Get more information at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/todolistsolutionplanners

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

 

If the Presidential Election Were Held Today: The Numbers in Early July

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – July 5, 2020

If the 2020 presidential election were held today, who would be the favorite to win?

Well, first, let’s look at the presidential election map from 2016. A few points jump out. 

First, contrary to many claims, the national polls in 2016 basically had the race right. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by 48.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Polling problems came in the few key states that swung the race for Trump via the Electoral College, that is, Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes), Michigan (16 Electoral College votes) and Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes). Needing 270 electoral votes to win, Trump took the Electoral College 306-232 (though the final tally of actual votes was 304-227).

Second, everything narrowly broke Trump’s way to win the White House. He took Pennsylvania 48.2 percent to 47.5 percent; Michigan 47.3 percent to 47.0 percent; and Wisconsin 47.2 percent to 46.5 percent. For good measure, Trump won Florida by only 48.6 percent to 47.4 percent. To say that was the narrowest of wins is to understate.

Third, the big factor in the 2016 race was that the primary purpose among voters was to vote against someone – against Trump or against Clinton. As it turned out, Hillary Clinton ranked as a breathtakingly unpopular candidate.

Almost four years later, we need to, of course, note the standard disclaimers. Namely, over the coming four months until Election Day, anything can happen. In addition, the latest polls only estimate what the vote would look like if the election were held today.

So, what if the election were, in fact, held today? The polls point to Democrat Joe Biden trouncing President Trump.

National. The recent national polls, over the past week, put Biden up by eight to 12 points. For good measure, the highest percent garnered by Trump was only 41 percent in these polls. 

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). The latest polling puts Biden up by five to 10 points.

Michigan (16 electoral votes). The polling in Michigan ranges widely, with Biden up by anywhere from one point to 13 points.

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).Again, recent polling ranges from one poll showing Trump being up by one point to all of the other polls pointing to Biden being up by eight to 11 points.

Florida (29 electoral votes).Trump won Florida by 48.6 percent to 47.4 percent in 2016. The latest polls put the Biden-Trump race anywhere from a tie to Biden being up by 9 points.

Iowa (6 electoral votes). Trump won Iowa 51.1 percent to 41.7 percent in 2016. The latest poll for this year’s race put Biden and Trump in a dead heat, with Trump up by one point.

Ohio (18 electoral votes). The last person who won the White House but lost Ohio was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Trump took Ohio 51.3 percent to 43.2 percent. The most recent polls this year are, in effect, a dead heat, with Biden up by 1-2 points.

Arizona (11 electoral votes). Trump won 48.1 percent to 44.6 percent. Among the latest polls, one pointed to Trump being up by four points, while the other two had Biden up by seven points.

Georgia (16 electoral votes). Trump took Georgia by a margin of 50.4 versus 45.3 percent in 2016. The latest poll shows Biden up by two points, that is, a dead heat.

Texas (38 electoral votes). In 2016, Trump won Texas by 52.2 percent to 43.2 percent. Amazingly, Texas ranks as a dead heat this year, according to the latest polls. One poll has Trump up by four points, while another points to Biden up by a point.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Trump took the state by 49.8 percent to 46.2 percent four years ago. The latest polls have Biden up by anywhere from one point to seven points.

Looking at these 10 states, a conservativeassessment indicates that Joe Biden could win, perhaps with 333 votes in the Electoral College, or running as high as 357. Of course, the election is not being held today. But the numbers make clear the mighty task facing Donald Trump to gain a second term.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Keating also is a novelist. His latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^th  book in the series. In addition,Heroes and Villains: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the Pastor Stephen Grant Book of the Month for July. The Kindle price has been cut to $2.99. Big sale on signed books and sets at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/book-of-the-month.

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – April 27, 2020

We live in a strange political time, to say the least. And one of the oddest phenomena I’ve witnessed is pushback against the idea of voting according to one’s conscience. Um, really?

In fact, if you mention during a discussion that you plan to vote for a third-party candidate or write in someone during a presidential election, the response, more often than not, is the following: Why would you waste your vote? That reaction raises interesting questions about what a “wasted vote” looks like.

First, it must be noted, as public choice economists remind us, that since your single vote will not decide an election (the chances are infinitesimal), it’s perfectly rational to not vote. Indeed, we are free to vote or not to vote in this country. 

Acknowledging the reality of one’s vote not deciding an election, then why do I vote? Well, I recognize that my fellow citizens – my neighbors – and I do come together to decide who our governmental representatives will be, and that matters very much in terms of a host of policies and issues affecting each of our lives. And I understand that this right to vote is exceptional in the history of the world, and that many of my fellow Americans have risked everything to protect this freedom to vote. Indeed, voting in a free and fair election is special, and reaches beyond the pure economic or statistical argument about one vote not deciding the outcome of an election.

Given how precious this right to vote is, then how can anyone do any less than vote according to conscience? 

Of course, a vote according to conscience can take various forms. The most obvious, and easiest, is to simply cast your vote for one of the two major party candidates – Republican or Democrat – who creates no significant issues or questions for one’s conscience. That’s been the case for me, fortunately, during five of the nine presidential elections in which I’ve voted.

Then there’s the case when voting against one of the major party candidates seems to be the primary impetus in the voting booth. 

For example, during the 2016 presidential campaign, which did not have an incumbent running, voting against a candidate ran much stronger than in the previous non-incumbent election. In the September before the 2016 presidential election, Pew Research found that among those supporting the Republican, 53 percent were voting against Democrat Hillary Clinton and 44 percent for Republican Donald Trump. That compared to 35 percent voting against Democrat Barack Obama in 2008 and 59 percent for Republican John McCain. Meanwhile, as for those supporting the Democrat, 46 percent were voting against Trump and 53 percent for Clinton in 2016, versus 25 percent against McCain and 68 percent for Obama in 2008.

Understanding that politicians are, well, politicians, I get the idea of voting against someone. But by doing so, if you pull the lever for the opposing major-party candidate, for example, then you’re effectively voting for that candidate. And if your conscience turns out, even after much wrestling, to be okay with who you’re pulling the lever for, so be it. That was the case for me in two presidential elections.

But what about the case where voting for either candidate would go against conscience? That was the situation confronting me in two presidential elections. There was no candidate on the ballot to vote for – either explicitly for or de facto for by voting against the other candidate – who didn’t trouble my conscience. So, in each case, I followed my conscience, and wrote in my choice.

Those write-in votes, contrary to widespread opinion, were in no way wasted votes. How could any vote be wasted when voting according to your conscience? Indeed, I’m completely baffled by such accusations.

While he spoke on theological matters, I think of the Christian reformer Martin Luther on this topic, with his famous quote: “I cannot and will not recant anything, for to go against conscience is neither right nor safe. Here I stand, I can do no other, so help me God. Amen.”

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast