For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republicans. Show all posts

Friday, December 31, 2021

A 2022 New Year’s Resolution for America: Less Politics

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – December 31, 2021

 

Here’s a suggestion: Americans need to come together to make a joint New Year’s Resolution. What should that resolution be? Less politics in 2022 – a lot less.



Nearly everything touched by politics gets corrupted. It’s not really a question of “if” but only of “when.” That is, how long will it take for the corruption to become manifest? Make no mistake, the ills of politics long have been spreading throughout our society, undermining institutions, and making daily life far less joyful. But the descent seems to have accelerated in recent years, with fewer Americans recognizing the corruption.

 

To paraphrase William F. Buckley, Jr.’s declaration in 1955 that his new magazine, National Review, “stands athwart history yelling stop,” it’s time in 2022, to stand athwart politics yelling stop.

 

And it must be understood that “politics” and “government” cannot be separated in any coherent manner. Politics merely is the control over government, the exercise of authority, or the art, if you will, of governing. Quite frankly, more government means more politics.

 

Of course, history is laden with warnings about politics and politicians. The psalmist had good reason to exhort: “Put not your trust in princes…” (Psalm 146:3) And in Common Sense (1776), Thomas Paine bluntly declared: “Government, even in its best state, is but a necessary evil; in its worst state, an intolerable one.”

 

James Madison, often referred to as the Father of the U.S. Constitution, noted: 

 

“If men were angels, no government would be necessary. If angels were to govern men, neither external nor internal controls on government would be necessary. In framing a government which is to be administered by men over men, the great difficulty is this: You must first enable the government to control the governed; and in the next place, oblige it to control itself. A dependence on the people is, no doubt, the primary control on the government; but experience has taught mankind the necessity of auxiliary precautions.” 

 

Madison very much understood the need for checks and balances in government given his concerns regarding the abuse of power.

 

None of this should be news to Americans, but it seems to be for many these days.

 

The political Left long has been at the forefront politicizing society. After all, the Left views government action not only as a cure-all for any and all real or perceived ills in life, but politics as the path to progress and improvement. Hence, the label “progressives.” So, to say the least, the Left has not been on board with Psalm 146, with Thomas Paine’s take on government, nor quite frankly, with Madison and much of the Constitution. On that last point, if doubted, understand that the predominate view of constitutional interpretation on the Left is judicial activism, which amounts to the Constitution saying whatever at least five members of the U.S. Supreme Court say it says, never mind what is actually written in the document itself.

 

However, new to this particular march of politicization have been many on the Right. Though they usually call themselves conservatives, those now embracing the expansion of politics, and therefore government, rank as populists, who also are supported or fueled by political panderers and opportunists. Like those on the Left, these populists see themselves as victims. It’s about being a victim of political enemies; big business, especially “Big Tech”; immigrants; international trade; and of course, elites. The list goes on.

 

So, the primary thrust of our politics these days is between progressives and populists each seeking to use government. The agendas differ (though not always), but the goal stands the same, i.e., seize and use the power of government. This has led to an intensely divisive political battle being engaged far beyond the typical realms of politics.

 

The Christian Church

 

Christianity, for example, has been anything but immune. The Left long has been playing politics within the Church. Mainline Protestant churches and parts of the Catholic Church have been in the business of tossing aside the truths of Holy Scripture – to varying degrees from the Ten Commandments to Jesus’ incarnation, death and atonement for the sins of all, and resurrection – in favor of taking up assorted political causes in the name of the Church. Political activism by many leaders in the Church not only takes place in areas where Christians have the freedom to disagree, such as where Scripture is silent, but even where Scripture points in the opposite direction.

 

More traditional or conservative Christian churches and movements have pushed back against such efforts for decades. But now, large swathes of evangelicals and “conservative” Christians have moved beyond a defense of more traditional Christianity to an ends-justify-the-means politicization. That has included, for example, a see-no-evil, character-does-not-matter embrace of President Donald Trump because he was perceived as being “on our side” on various issues, like abortion, but interestingly not on marriage.

 

Perhaps even more troubling, however, is how a Trumpian divisiveness has reached into the Church to create a scenario whereby Christians, including assorted clergy, view their political opponents as evil and unreachable. That flies in the face of what Jesus teaches. In fact, some movements within Christianity argue for a general retreat from society itself due to assorted political and cultural developments – a turn inward. You know, let’s just preach to the choir. Again, that’s not what Jesus calls for, and it flies in the face of the Great Commission: “Go therefore and make disciples of all nations, baptizing them in the name of the Father and of the Son and of the Holy Spirit, teaching them to observe all that I have commanded you. And behold, I am with you always, to the end of the age.” (Matthew 28:19-20)

 

These developments are about politics trumping God’s Word. They are about greater confidence in politics than in the Church and its mission. They are about the corrupting nature of politics. And we see it flourishing now among both the Left and Right within the Church.

 

The list continues.

 

Economics or Politics?

 

My own profession overflows with examples of politics corrupting the economics discipline. While considerable disagreement exists among economic schools of thought on an array of issues, how much of that disagreement springs from various economists ignoring fundamental laws of economics due to their own political preferences? 

 

The temptation to dress up political preferences in the garb of economics has been around a long time, especially given how economics and economists get tied to policy analyses and proposals. Arguably, the door was blown open to politics being dressed up as economics when John Maynard Keynes in the 1930s justified massive government action to juice up aggregate demand and the economy. From that point forward, it has been increasingly easy to find economists willing to slap some economics makeup on almost any governmental action. Today, that goes for government spending being an engine of economic growth to justifying protectionist trade policies to advocating for increases in a government-mandated minimum wage to ignoring any possible negatives of raising costs on entrepreneurs, businesses and investors to asserting that immigrants are negatives for the economy. None of this makes economic sense; instead, it’s about the politics of various economists.

 

The corruption of politics is clear.

 

Sports and Politics

 

How about sports? Sure. We’ve seen where a handful of players use their spots as professional athletes to advance political causes. Politicians react, especially in hopes of fueling anger and action among their respective bases. Matters escalate far beyond the simple reality that a few athletes in a particular league have taken a controversial, usually shallow, stand. Sports become politicized. Interestingly, though, with sports, politics tend to be short-lived rather than something more substantive. Causes come and go, as do the reactions. People declare that they’ll never watch a game again because some players disagree with them on this or that political point. But not long after, everyone is gathered back around the television wearing their jerseys. 

 

But another political storm no doubt will emerge, or be manufactured, and divisions will again be accentuated.

 

The Politics of Business?

 

How about business? At one time, American businesses were studiously nonpolitical. After all, why wade into politics and potentially aggravate half of your customers? Of course, there are cases where politicians seek to impose additional burdens on businesses, and it would be irresponsible for companies not to make clear their positions on such matters. But the pressure and willingness to get political beyond those situations have been ramped up in recent times.

 

Many business executives are stuck wondering which issues are actual trends in the marketplace, and which are stirred up by politicians and activists. Other executives seem to lack a fundamental understanding of the role of profits in a business, as well as in the marketplace in terms of allocating resources, and have embraced political causes as guides for running companies. Eventually, though, businesses that make decisions that run counter to what consumers want and need will be punished in the marketplace.

 

There’s more, of course, including in education, in “Hollywood,” in publishing, in news reporting, etc. Heck, largely via political manipulation, we’ve even managed to politicize getting vaccinated to save lives and limit the spread of a pandemic. The list is rather exhausting.

 

Populists, Progressives and No Real Surprises

 

The populist Right seems to be a strange mix of a harsh libertarianism with extreme distrust of everything government is involved in, including running elections; a politically-focused chunk of evangelicalism that seems more Republican than Christian; a paranoia regarding technology, large businesses, immigrants and the international economy; an isolationism regarding foreign policy; and yet, an authoritarian streak if their people (like Donald Trump) were running the government. 

 

This contrasts with a progessive Left that is no longer shy about brandishing its ignorance of economics, its unwavering love of government, and its willingness to call for adopting socialism (though it’s not clear that many of these pro-socialists actually know what socialism is, and the same goes for many of today’s critics of these efforts). These progressives certainly see no ills in imposing higher taxes and increased regulations, but instead view these as minor, preliminary matters in their larger plans. They share with the populists a penchant for isolationism on most international matters, such as trade and U.S. global leadership, that is, unless an international effort advances the Left’s secular religion of environmentalism. For good measure, the Left’s social agenda no longer allows for mere disagreement, discussion or even civil argument with others, but instead, it is a matter of punishing those who fail to get on board. The temptations of Stalinism are never completely lost on the Left.

 

So, in this era where one major political party is immersed in a radical progressivism and the other in a radical populism, no one should be surprised by the spread of politics and divisiveness across society. We can be saddened by it, distressed by it, and worried about where the U.S. might be headed, but being surprised is no longer in the cards. In a real and tragic sense, we have caught up to the descent that’s been going on in parts of Europe for some time now, that is, a rampaging progressivism on the Left and a dark populism on the Right.

 

Another Option?

 

What to do? Is there another option? Yes. Traditional, or American, conservatism offers insights. That is, the conservatism with roots in the American founding, and made clear in much of the thinking and actions of assorted individuals like Abraham Lincoln, Calvin Coolidge, Jack Kemp, William F. Buckley, Jr., George Will, and Ronald Reagan.

 

Regarding politics and its proper role as they relate to this time and topic, the conservative would say that men and women have a right to be free from arbitrary force; that political freedom cannot be separated from economic freedom; and that the purpose of government is to protect freedom by protecting life, limb and property, providing for a national defense, and administering justice. This limited view of government naturally points to a limited view of politics. As conservative historian Lee Edwards put it: “The conservative looks upon politics as the art of achieving the maximum amount of freedom for individuals that is consistent with the maintenance of social order.” 

 

Yes, this description leaves plenty of room for diverse views, disagreement and debate. It always has. But in today’s politics, both Left and Right, Democrats and Republicans, seem to stand against or in ignorance of these basic tenets. And given that Democrats never claimed to be conservatives, this ignorance or opposition is a far more egregious offense for Republicans and others who label themselves as being “conservative.”

 

Think about this traditional view of politics, and compare it to our current affairs, and to both the Democratic and Republican parties. Again, it’s deeply troubling. But is all lost?

 

No. From the traditional Christian to the traditional conservative (for which, by the way, there is a great deal of overlap, with Judeo-Christian values serving as part of the foundation of conservativism – but alas that is a subject to delve more deeply into on another day), while serious reasons for worry exist, this does not, or should not, translate into a loss of confidence in truths and principles. But it does mean that hard work lies ahead in order to teach, persuade and correct, and treat civilly, not denigrate and name call, those with whom we disagree.

 

I think of my favorite quote, which I reference often, from President Reagan: “We’ve made much progress already. So, let us go forth with good cheer and stout hearts – happy warriors out to seize back a country and a world to freedom.”

 

And yes, this all can start with a New Year’s Resolution for less politics in 2022. It’s a conservative resolution that perhaps many Americans, who are sick of the spreading corruption of politics, now stand open to considering and perhaps adopting.

 

_________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Keating writes the Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13th book in the series, followed by Past Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story and What’s Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short StorySigned books are available at www.RayKeatingOnline.com.

 

Some of Keating’s best columns and essays are available in Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New YorkAnd his other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Again, signed books at www.RayKeatingOnline.com.

 

In addition, get organized in 2022 with either of Ray Keating’s TO DO List Solution Planners – The Lutheran Planner 2022 or The Disney Planner 2022.

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of DisneyFree Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Thanking Those Who Usually Don't Get Thanked

 


PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #55: Thanks to Those Who Usually Don’t Get Thanked – Many people and enterprises deserve thanks but wind up getting the exact opposite. Ray has a list of those who deserve thanks, from pharmaceutical and tech companies to clergy who stay true to their calling to conservatives who stay true to conservatism, to many others. Tune in now! 

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Liz Cheney and the Decline of the Republican Party

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – May 12, 2021

 

After several years of experiencing sad political days, this conservative was hit hard once more today – May 12, 2021 – when Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives voted to oust U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) from her leadership position. It wasn’t a surprise, but it was nonetheless depressing.



This inexcusable action served as glaring evidence that the party of Reagan has been lost to the party of Trump. And this despite the fact that Donald Trump lost the White House, the Senate and the House while in office (oh yes, and was impeached … twice). Indeed, you have to go back to Herbert Hoover for the last time a Republican president managed such incompetence at the ballot box.

 

While Trump is all about an incoherent, victim-based, enemies-are-everywhere, ends-justify-the-means populism, Liz Cheney ranks as a solid, principled conservative with integrity in the Reagan tradition. As a result, she naturally spoke out against President Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, and against his role in stoking the violence of January 6 when his supporters invaded the Capitol. Cheney spoke the truth at the time, and has continued to do so.

 

But that apparently was too much for House Republicans – many of whom actually took Trump to task for his role on January 6, but now want to forget about that, and pander to Trump and his supporters in their party.

 

So, Liz Cheney had to go. 

 

But at the same time, conspiracy kook Marjorie Taylor Greene, for example, seems to suffer in no way with her Republican colleagues. As a reminder, Rep. Greene, as The Washington Post summed up, “Greene has made comments on social media suggesting that some mass shootings were staged by supporters of gun control, that the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were orchestrated by government entities and that a Jewish cabal had sparked a deadly California wildfire with a laser beam directed from space. As recently as late last year, she was an adherent of the false claims of the QAnon ideology. She has renounced some of her most outlandish claims.” But that’s all okay, apparently, because Greene is a big Trump supporter.

 

Meanwhile, consider points from Cheney’s speech in the House last night (May 11):

 

     “Three men – an immigrant who escaped Castro’s totalitarian regime; a young man who grew up behind the iron curtain and became his country’s minister of defense; and a dissident who spent years in the Soviet gulag have all told me it was the miracle of America captured in the words of President Ronald Reagan that inspired them to seek freedom.

     “I have seen the power of faith and freedom. I listened to Pope John Paul II speak to thousands in Nairobi in 1985, and 19 years later I watched that same pope take my father’s hand, look in his eyes, and say, ‘God Bless America.’

     “God has blessed America, but our freedom only survives if we protect it, if we honor our oath, taken before God in this chamber, to support and defend the Constitution, if we recognize threats to freedom when they arise. 

     “Today we face a threat America has never seen before. A former president, who provoked a violent attack on this Capitol in an effort to steal the election, has resumed his aggressive effort to convince Americans that the election was stolen from him. He risks inciting further violence. 

     “Millions of Americans have been misled by the former President. They have heard only his words, but not the truth, as he continues to undermine our democratic process, sowing seeds of doubt about whether democracy really works at all…

     “As the party of Reagan, Republicans championed democracy, won the Cold War, and defeated the Soviet Communists. As we speak, America is on the cusp of another Cold War – this time with communist China. Attacks against our democratic process and the rule of law empower our adversaries and feed Communist propaganda that American democracy is a failure. We must speak the truth. Our election was not stolen, and America has not failed.”

 

After being ousted from her leadership position, Cheney told reporters, “The nation needs a strong Republican Party. The nation needs a party that is based on fundamental principles of conservatism. And I am committed and dedicated to ensuring that that’s how this party goes forward. And I plan to lead the fight to do that.”

 

And during the GOP House conference, according to Politico, Cheney declared, “If you want leaders who will enable and spread his destructive lies, I’m not your person, you have plenty of others to choose from. That will be their legacy. But I promise you this, after today, I will be leading the fight to restore our party and our nation to conservative principles, to defeating socialism, to defending our republic, to making the GOP worthy again of being the party of Lincoln.”

 

I agree wholeheartedly with Liz Cheney, and I hope and pray for the sake of the nation that she plays a key role in successfully winning the Republican Party back to sanity and true conservatism. It’s clear that this will be no easy task – indeed, far from it.

 

_________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  Keating has two new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.comPast Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.comAnd pre-order the 15th book in the series What’s Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of DisneyFree Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Saturday, April 3, 2021

On Politics: Democrat Cynicism vs. Republican Ineptitude

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – April 3, 2021

 

When it comes to advancing one’s agenda via cynical political manipulation, Democrats take a back seat to no one. Certainly not to Republicans – a political party that seems bent on perfecting the self-inflicted wound.



Consider what’s going on with Georgia’s new voting law. Democrats and the Left have presented it as a Republican effort to suppress the black vote. But as a variety of sober assessments have made clear, this is largely a measure that expands early voting, and cleans up the process so that local election officials are better able to manage the process. (For example, see Henry Olsen’s Washington Post piece, and a rundown on the law by Georgia Public Broadcasting (GPB).) 

 

One can, and of course, should, debate the measure, but classifying this as some kind of Jim Crow law is simply dead wrong. President Biden actually asserted, “It’s sick … deciding that you’re going to end voting at five o’clock when working people are just getting off work.” It’s not clear who would benefit from having polls closing at 5 p.m., but I guess Biden has some ideas? However, it doesn’t matter anyway because that’s not what the law says. In fact,  it’s quite the opposite, as noted by GPB: “One of the biggest changes in the bill would expand early voting access for most counties, adding an additional mandatory Saturday and formally codifying Sunday voting hours as optional. Counties can have early voting open as long as 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., or 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. at minimum.” (Emphasis added.) Hey, Joe, the polls don’t close at five, instead, they have to stay open until at least five.

 

Well, why then the widespread backlash against this law, including, for example, Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred announcing that the All-Star Game would be moved out of Georgia?

 

Most obvious, people don’t do their own research on issues; they take their cues from certain groups or voices; and then they assert their own expertise and make decisions accordingly. That is, they serve as fertile ground for political manipulation. This is increasingly the case across the political party spectrum and our nation.

 

Second, the Left and the Democrats have seized on an issue to work to their own advantage, from ginning up their base to pressuring individuals, groups and organizations to get in line. 

 

Meanwhile, Republicans made it easier for Democrats to do so. How? With so many Republican politicians, officials and rank-and-file members backing Donald Trump’s lunacy and lies about a stolen election, it’s pretty easy for Democrats to raise all kinds of questions about Republican intentions when it comes to voting laws.

 

Never mind that Republican leaders in the state of Georgia followed state law, as opposed to what Trump pressured them to do, during this past presidential election. Democrats have decided, for their own political advantage, to paint with a broad brush, hurling baseless accusations and trying to cover all Republicans in Georgia with the taint of Trump. Republicans simply made it far easier to do so because they refuse to wash off the Trump grime and muck.

 

Republicans will catch on. Well, not really. They’ll probably double-down for Trump, thereby, making it even easier for Democrats to launch both legitimate and baseless attacks. And America’s divide of distrust will persist.

 

Republican political dimness is not a new problem, but the party seems to have sunk deeper into political ignorance. Thinking that a cranky, narrow, victim-centric, anger-driven, fear-embracing populism was, and still is, a foundation upon which to sustain a political party rates as a model of political ineptitude.

 

I recall a moment in time when Republicans were pretty smart, that is, when they got on board with an optimistic, freedom-loving, free-enterprise-embracing, confident conservative named Ronald Reagan, and followed him to victory and influence beyond his years. But that is not today’s GOP, and I certainly have no idea what tomorrow’s GOP will look like, or if it will even exist. Indeed, the most that the Republican Party has going for it now is that a significant chunk of Americans reject the Democrats’ ongoing journey leftward, and some are still able to spot and oppose the Left’s cynicism.

 

_________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  Keating has two new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.comPast Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Last-Minute Take: What Will the Senate Look Like in 2021?

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – November 3, 2020

 

Today’s election not only is about the White House, but the control of the U.S. Senate as well. Currently, Republicans hold the Senate by a 53-47 margin.

 

What are the polls telling us about where the Senate might wind up in 2021?



Alabama. Senator Doug Jones is a Democrat who looks destined to lose to Republican Tommy Tuberville.

 

Arizona. Senator Martha McSally is a Republican, and she looks to be in serious trouble against Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. (Read my piece on this race.)

 

Colorado. Republican Senator Cory Gardner is trailing Democrat and former governor John Hickenlooper by a yawning margin in the polls.

 

Georgia. The Peach State actually has two Senate races. Republican Senator David Perdue is up for re-election, and the current seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler. Perdue holds a tiny edge in the polls, while Loeffler is running in a crowded field. Georgia requires the winner to clear the 50 percent mark. If that isn’t hit, there would be a runoff on January 5. Heading into today’s vote, the Loeffler race is destined for January 5, and the Perdue seat could be determined then as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Perdue seat remain Republican and the Loeffler seat go to the Democrats – eventually.

 

Iowa. Republican Senator Joni Ernst is running ever-so-slightly behind her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. But this race is way too close to call.

 

Maine. Senator Susan Collins is a Republican who always seems to be hanging on, but she is trailing Democrat Sara Gideon in a tight race.

 

Montana. Republican Senator Steve Daines is in a dead heat with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock.

 

North Carolina. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is fighting for his political life against Democrat Cal Cunningham. And despite the fact that Cunningham is embroiled in a scandal involving an affair, he still holds a small, steady lead over Tillis. (Hey, this is 2020, and neither Democrats nor Republicans apparently care about such controversies any longer.)

 

South Carolina. Republican Lindsey Graham is in a dead heat with Democrats Jaime Harrison.

 

The polling numbers heading into tonight do not bode well for Republicans holding onto the Senate. In the end, Democrats could grab a Senate majority with 52-54 seats.

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Trump, Biden, the Pandemic and the Polls”

 

“Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980”

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Pre-order the forthcoming Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/vaticanshadows and the Kindle Edition at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08L1HLRP3

 

Also, choose your 2021 TO DO List planner today, and enjoy the pre-order sale! Perfect for you and as Christmas gifts. Choose between The Lutheran Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, The Film Buff’s Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, and The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution. Get more information at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/todolistsolutionplanners

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

 

Friday, October 16, 2020

Is Trump Toast?

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 16, 2020

 

When a president runs for a second term, the race overwhelmingly turns out to be a referendum on the incumbent.

 

I’ve said this before but it bears repeating: I’d love to be able to claim that Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 was a vote for Reagan, but in reality, it was a vote against Jimmy Carter. The 1984 contest turned out to be a resounding, 49-state approval for Reagan.



So, make no mistake, this 2020 presidential contest is largely about President Donald Trump. And that’s turning out quite poorly for the president, and perhaps for Republicans in general.

 

On Friday (October 16) morning, pollster and focus-group guru Frank Luntz made two important points on CNBC. First, he noted that his focus groups and surveys are telling him that the voters who remain undecided regarding the Trump-Biden contest overwhelming dislike, even despise, the president as a person, but at the same time, they’re afraid of the policies of Joe Biden and the Democrats. That’s not surprising. After all a large swath of the nation seems to fall into this category. Second, Luntz noted that, historically, those who remain undecided close to the vote, break two-thirds for the challenger. 

 

When you look at where the polls are today, none of this is good news for Trump. 

 

While Trump consistently trailed Hillary Clinton in the national polling in 2016, those polls overwhelmingly were within the margin of error. Also, when you look at the polling averages, Clinton’s average percentage never touched 50 percent over the seven-plus months leading up to Election Day. Coming down the stretch, Clinton’s average ran between 46 percent and 48 percent, and Trump’s between 42 percent and 45 percent. The final outcome? Clinton won 46.8 percent versus Trump’s 43.6 percent. The national polls nailed the popular vote. 

 

This year, in recent weeks, polling averages have Biden running between 49 percent and 52 percent, with Trump down at 42 percent to 43 percent. Barring some bizarre occurrence – like Joe Biden during the last debate screaming, “Get the squirrels off me!” – that would seem to be an insurmountable lead.

 

But as many people learned in 2016, the presidential race actually is a state-by-state contest, decided in the Electoral College. So, let’s update our look at the battleground states.

 

Arizona (11 electoral votes). The most reliable recent polls put Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points, with Biden running in the 49 percent to 51 percent range.

 

Florida (29 electoral votes). Florida still falls into the toss-up category. But most recent polls have Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 points. However, one poll puts the two in a tie, and another has Trump up by 2 points. 

 

Michigan (16 electoral votes). The recent polls overwhelmingly show Biden widening his lead in the state, generally possessing a 6-to-9 percentage point lead. However, one recent outlier puts Trump up by 1 point, that is, a dead heat.

 

Minnesota (10 electoral votes). The recent polls show Biden holding a consistent lead.

 

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The state now leans slightly toward Biden, with polls ranging from a dead heat to Biden up by 6 percentage points. 

 

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). While Biden holds a consistent lead in Pennsylvania, depending on the poll, the race is either very close or Biden holds a comfortable lead. Indeed, the president’s been hanging tough in this state. 

 

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Biden continues to look strong in Wisconsin, with a lead stretching out as far as 10 percentage points. Although one poll puts the race within the margin of error.

 

Ohio (18 electoral votes). The latest polls show an effective dead heat in Ohio, with Trump holding a slight edge. The polls range from Biden being up by one point to Trump being up by 3 points.

 

Iowa (6 electoral votes). While Iowa is an effective dead heat, the recent polls show things leaning ever so slightly toward Trump, with him holding leads from 1 to 6 points.

 

Georgia (16 electoral votes). It’s rather stunning to look at the polls in Georgia. The race in this normally safe Republican state range from Trump having a 2 point lead to Biden holding a lead of 7 points.

 

Nevada (6 electoral votes). The latest reliable polls show Biden holding an edge anywhere from 2 to 6 points. The far less reliable polls show him with a bigger lead.

 

Texas (38 electoral votes). Amazingly, Texas, normally Republican country, stands as a dead heat, with the latest polls ranging from Biden being up by 2 points to Trump up by 7 points. (See my take on Texas apparently going Purple.)

 

Alaska (3 electoral votes). Here’s another bizarre item: The lone reliable poll served up in Alaska recently put Trump up 45 percent to Biden’s 39 percent. However, that’s within the poll’s margin of error. Now, I don’t expect Trump to lose Alaska, but Biden within the margin of error speaks to the broader troubles that Republicans are facing. 

 

Right now, a worst case scenario for Joe Biden would give Biden 304 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win. In a Blue wave scenario, that tally could go as high as 393.

 

And when Republicans have to spend time and money in Georgia and in Texas that spells big trouble for Trump and his party.

 

It’s worth noting the comments revealed in the media made by U.S. Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) to town hall with constituents. According to a report from the New York Times, when asked about why he’s so hard on Trump, Sasse unloaded on Trump, hitting him on a wide array of issues. That included Sasse warning, “We are staring down the barrel of a blue tsunami.”

 

The polling data point to Trump being toast. The real question appears to be: How bad will it be for Republicans in general?

 

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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

 

“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”

 

“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”

 

“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”

 

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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.