For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trump. Show all posts

Thursday, July 22, 2021

Thanking Those Who Usually Don't Get Thanked

 


PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #55: Thanks to Those Who Usually Don’t Get Thanked – Many people and enterprises deserve thanks but wind up getting the exact opposite. Ray has a list of those who deserve thanks, from pharmaceutical and tech companies to clergy who stay true to their calling to conservatives who stay true to conservatism, to many others. Tune in now! 

Wednesday, May 12, 2021

Liz Cheney and the Decline of the Republican Party

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – May 12, 2021

 

After several years of experiencing sad political days, this conservative was hit hard once more today – May 12, 2021 – when Republicans in the U.S. House of Representatives voted to oust U.S. Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) from her leadership position. It wasn’t a surprise, but it was nonetheless depressing.



This inexcusable action served as glaring evidence that the party of Reagan has been lost to the party of Trump. And this despite the fact that Donald Trump lost the White House, the Senate and the House while in office (oh yes, and was impeached … twice). Indeed, you have to go back to Herbert Hoover for the last time a Republican president managed such incompetence at the ballot box.

 

While Trump is all about an incoherent, victim-based, enemies-are-everywhere, ends-justify-the-means populism, Liz Cheney ranks as a solid, principled conservative with integrity in the Reagan tradition. As a result, she naturally spoke out against President Trump’s false claims that the 2020 election was stolen, and against his role in stoking the violence of January 6 when his supporters invaded the Capitol. Cheney spoke the truth at the time, and has continued to do so.

 

But that apparently was too much for House Republicans – many of whom actually took Trump to task for his role on January 6, but now want to forget about that, and pander to Trump and his supporters in their party.

 

So, Liz Cheney had to go. 

 

But at the same time, conspiracy kook Marjorie Taylor Greene, for example, seems to suffer in no way with her Republican colleagues. As a reminder, Rep. Greene, as The Washington Post summed up, “Greene has made comments on social media suggesting that some mass shootings were staged by supporters of gun control, that the Sept. 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were orchestrated by government entities and that a Jewish cabal had sparked a deadly California wildfire with a laser beam directed from space. As recently as late last year, she was an adherent of the false claims of the QAnon ideology. She has renounced some of her most outlandish claims.” But that’s all okay, apparently, because Greene is a big Trump supporter.

 

Meanwhile, consider points from Cheney’s speech in the House last night (May 11):

 

     “Three men – an immigrant who escaped Castro’s totalitarian regime; a young man who grew up behind the iron curtain and became his country’s minister of defense; and a dissident who spent years in the Soviet gulag have all told me it was the miracle of America captured in the words of President Ronald Reagan that inspired them to seek freedom.

     “I have seen the power of faith and freedom. I listened to Pope John Paul II speak to thousands in Nairobi in 1985, and 19 years later I watched that same pope take my father’s hand, look in his eyes, and say, ‘God Bless America.’

     “God has blessed America, but our freedom only survives if we protect it, if we honor our oath, taken before God in this chamber, to support and defend the Constitution, if we recognize threats to freedom when they arise. 

     “Today we face a threat America has never seen before. A former president, who provoked a violent attack on this Capitol in an effort to steal the election, has resumed his aggressive effort to convince Americans that the election was stolen from him. He risks inciting further violence. 

     “Millions of Americans have been misled by the former President. They have heard only his words, but not the truth, as he continues to undermine our democratic process, sowing seeds of doubt about whether democracy really works at all…

     “As the party of Reagan, Republicans championed democracy, won the Cold War, and defeated the Soviet Communists. As we speak, America is on the cusp of another Cold War – this time with communist China. Attacks against our democratic process and the rule of law empower our adversaries and feed Communist propaganda that American democracy is a failure. We must speak the truth. Our election was not stolen, and America has not failed.”

 

After being ousted from her leadership position, Cheney told reporters, “The nation needs a strong Republican Party. The nation needs a party that is based on fundamental principles of conservatism. And I am committed and dedicated to ensuring that that’s how this party goes forward. And I plan to lead the fight to do that.”

 

And during the GOP House conference, according to Politico, Cheney declared, “If you want leaders who will enable and spread his destructive lies, I’m not your person, you have plenty of others to choose from. That will be their legacy. But I promise you this, after today, I will be leading the fight to restore our party and our nation to conservative principles, to defeating socialism, to defending our republic, to making the GOP worthy again of being the party of Lincoln.”

 

I agree wholeheartedly with Liz Cheney, and I hope and pray for the sake of the nation that she plays a key role in successfully winning the Republican Party back to sanity and true conservatism. It’s clear that this will be no easy task – indeed, far from it.

 

_________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  Keating has two new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.comPast Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.comAnd pre-order the 15th book in the series What’s Lost? A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, check out Ray’s podcasts – the Daily Dose of DisneyFree Enterprise in Three Minutes, and the PRESS CLUB C Podcast.

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Saturday, April 3, 2021

On Politics: Democrat Cynicism vs. Republican Ineptitude

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – April 3, 2021

 

When it comes to advancing one’s agenda via cynical political manipulation, Democrats take a back seat to no one. Certainly not to Republicans – a political party that seems bent on perfecting the self-inflicted wound.



Consider what’s going on with Georgia’s new voting law. Democrats and the Left have presented it as a Republican effort to suppress the black vote. But as a variety of sober assessments have made clear, this is largely a measure that expands early voting, and cleans up the process so that local election officials are better able to manage the process. (For example, see Henry Olsen’s Washington Post piece, and a rundown on the law by Georgia Public Broadcasting (GPB).) 

 

One can, and of course, should, debate the measure, but classifying this as some kind of Jim Crow law is simply dead wrong. President Biden actually asserted, “It’s sick … deciding that you’re going to end voting at five o’clock when working people are just getting off work.” It’s not clear who would benefit from having polls closing at 5 p.m., but I guess Biden has some ideas? However, it doesn’t matter anyway because that’s not what the law says. In fact,  it’s quite the opposite, as noted by GPB: “One of the biggest changes in the bill would expand early voting access for most counties, adding an additional mandatory Saturday and formally codifying Sunday voting hours as optional. Counties can have early voting open as long as 7 a.m. to 7 p.m., or 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. at minimum.” (Emphasis added.) Hey, Joe, the polls don’t close at five, instead, they have to stay open until at least five.

 

Well, why then the widespread backlash against this law, including, for example, Major League Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred announcing that the All-Star Game would be moved out of Georgia?

 

Most obvious, people don’t do their own research on issues; they take their cues from certain groups or voices; and then they assert their own expertise and make decisions accordingly. That is, they serve as fertile ground for political manipulation. This is increasingly the case across the political party spectrum and our nation.

 

Second, the Left and the Democrats have seized on an issue to work to their own advantage, from ginning up their base to pressuring individuals, groups and organizations to get in line. 

 

Meanwhile, Republicans made it easier for Democrats to do so. How? With so many Republican politicians, officials and rank-and-file members backing Donald Trump’s lunacy and lies about a stolen election, it’s pretty easy for Democrats to raise all kinds of questions about Republican intentions when it comes to voting laws.

 

Never mind that Republican leaders in the state of Georgia followed state law, as opposed to what Trump pressured them to do, during this past presidential election. Democrats have decided, for their own political advantage, to paint with a broad brush, hurling baseless accusations and trying to cover all Republicans in Georgia with the taint of Trump. Republicans simply made it far easier to do so because they refuse to wash off the Trump grime and muck.

 

Republicans will catch on. Well, not really. They’ll probably double-down for Trump, thereby, making it even easier for Democrats to launch both legitimate and baseless attacks. And America’s divide of distrust will persist.

 

Republican political dimness is not a new problem, but the party seems to have sunk deeper into political ignorance. Thinking that a cranky, narrow, victim-centric, anger-driven, fear-embracing populism was, and still is, a foundation upon which to sustain a political party rates as a model of political ineptitude.

 

I recall a moment in time when Republicans were pretty smart, that is, when they got on board with an optimistic, freedom-loving, free-enterprise-embracing, confident conservative named Ronald Reagan, and followed him to victory and influence beyond his years. But that is not today’s GOP, and I certainly have no idea what tomorrow’s GOP will look like, or if it will even exist. Indeed, the most that the Republican Party has going for it now is that a significant chunk of Americans reject the Democrats’ ongoing journey leftward, and some are still able to spot and oppose the Left’s cynicism.

 

_________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  Keating has two new books out. Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13ththriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.comPast Lives: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the 14th book in the series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed book at www.raykeatingonline.com.

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Sunday, November 1, 2020

Trump, Biden, the Pandemic and the Polls

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – November 1, 2020

 

If you think this long, exhausting, painful and often-ridiculous presidential campaign between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden – two crazy, unsavory old guys – is going to be over on Tuesday night, well, I hope you’re right. But don’t be surprised if we don’t get a final call on the race until Thursday.

 

It also pays to keep in mind that when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S., the task before President Donald Trump wasn’t that hard. Well, it wouldn’t have been hard for almost anyone other than Mr. Trump.



The message should have been straightforward and simple. It should have gone something like this: “My fellow Americans, we need to come together to beat this pandemic. We need to care, support and look out for each other. We can do that by listening to the medical community; and by taking common sense precautions, like wearing masks and practicing social distancing. As best as we can in these troubled time, we need to support the small businesses who are the backbone of our economy. We need to show our appreciation for the people who are on the frontlines caring for others, and for those who are working hard to find effective vaccines and therapeutics. We can find strength from our respective faith communities. We need to pray for each other and for our country. The strength of this nation and our people will shine through. God bless you, and God bless America.”

 

If that were the consistent message from the president, as opposed to bizarre, self-promoting, conflicting, self-absorbed, dishonest, conspiracy-dabbling rants, the polls heading into Election Day likely would be quite different. After all, Americans usually aren’t too keen on changing horses in the middle of an emergency, unless that horse is erratic and cannot be trusted. For good measure, it pays to be reminded that when a president runs for re-election, the race overwhelmingly is about that incumbent.

 

Given these realities, what are we looking at in terms of the polls heading into this Tuesday, with the understanding that this is an unprecedented election with vast numbers -some 93 million people – having voted already?

 

The national polling continues to show former Vice President Joe Biden holding a rather stunning lead over President Trump. The latest polls put Biden up by 5 to 12 percentage points, with the polling averages putting Biden’s lead in the 7-to-9 points range, with Biden earning 51 percent to 52 percent of the vote. When a candidate scores about the 50 percent mark, and has a lead that large, it spells big trouble for the opponent.

 

But we need, of course, given what happened in 2016, to look at the presidential race in state-by-state contests, with the outcome resting in the Electoral College. So, let’s take a final look at the battleground states.

 

Arizona (11 electoral votes). The race is an effective dead heat, with Biden holding a slight lead.

 

Florida (29 electoral votes). Florida also falls into the toss-up category, with Biden, again, holding the slight edge.

 

Michigan (16 electoral votes). Biden holds a healthy lead in the polls – with the poll average putting him up by about eight points. Plus, Biden is pulling in above 50 percent in most polls.

 

Minnesota (10 electoral votes). Trump has been campaigning in the state, and as he does, the polls seem to pushing further in favor of Biden. The former vice president holds a nine-point lead in the poll average, and is coming in above 50 percent.

 

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The state is an effective dead heat. While Biden holds a slight lead in the polling average, the latest polls are a mix of Trump or Biden being slightly ahead.

 

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). The polling average has Biden up by five points and coming in above 50 percent of the vote. But the race remains tight. 

 

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Biden holds a solid lead of eight points among the polling average, and he is consistently running above 50 percent of those polled.

 

Ohio (18 electoral votes). Ohio is a toss-up, with Biden showing a slight move up. But this race is a straight-up tie.

 

Iowa (6 electoral votes). Iowa remains an effective dead heat, with Trump holding the slightest edge.

 

Georgia (16 electoral votes). Georgia is a dead heat – amazing given how Republican this state has been.

 

Nevada (6 electoral votes). The polling average puts Biden up by four points in Nevada. And he has held a consistent lead. But this is another tight race.

 

Texas (38 electoral votes). In this weird year, Texas, another traditional Republican state, remains a dead heat, with some polls putting Trump up slightly and others Biden. (See my take on Texas apparently going Purple.)

 

My prediction puts Biden at 342 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win. In a Blue wave scenario, that tally could go as high as 393.

 

No matter the outcome, like 2016, one gets the feeling that this is yet another election in which many people are voting against a candidate, rather than for one. In the end, perhaps most troubling is the unfortunate reality that whoever wins will present far more problems and negatives for the nation – though in quite different ways – rather than solutions or positives.

 

By the way, if anyone cares, I’ll be voting the same way I did in 2016, that is, writing in Ben Sasse for president.

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980”

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

 

“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”

 

“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”

 

“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Pre-order the forthcoming Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/vaticanshadows and the Kindle Edition at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08L1HLRP3

 

Also, choose your 2021 TO DO List planner today, and enjoy the pre-order sale! Perfect for you and as Christmas gifts. Choose between The Lutheran Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, The Film Buff’s Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, and The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution. Get more information at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/todolistsolutionplanners

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

 

Saturday, January 11, 2020

Doubts About the U.S. Still Being a Right-of-Center Country

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – January 11, 2020

The United States has long been identified as a right-of-center country when it comes to politics. But is that still the case? A new Gallup poll proclaims that it is, but I have reasons for doubt.


In a January 9, 2020, release, Gallup declared, “The U.S. Remained Center-Right, Ideologically, in 2019.” Let’s consider the pollster’s findings.

Gallup reported that 37% of American adults described their political views as “conservative,” while 35% said “moderate” and 24% “liberal.” Well, conservatives should be pleased, so far.

But Americans also leaned more Democrat than Republican in terms of party preference or leaning – with 47% aligning themselves with the Democrats and 42% with Republicans. Gallup noted, “Americans' political leanings have been quite stable since 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected president. The Democratic figure has not changed in the past four years, and the Republican figure has been 41% or 42% each year since 2012.”

Interestingly, none of this is terribly new. Looking at Gallup’s polling back to the early 1990s, more people identify as “conservative” and “moderate” than “liberal,” but at the same time, party preference (including how independents leaned) generally has been Democrat over Republican.

Meanwhile, the breakdown of how Republicans and Democrats identify their political views has skewed in directions one might expect. For example, in 1994, Republicans broke down at 58% “conservative,” 33% “moderate,” and 8% “liberal. That compared to the 2019 breakdown among Republicans as 73% “conservative,” 21% “moderate,” and 4% “liberal.”

The trend, unsurprisingly, has been in the opposite direction among Democrats – but more drastic. In 1994, 48% identified as “moderate,” 25% “liberal,” and 25% “conservative.” That compared to a 2109 breakdown among Democrats of 49% “liberal,” 36% “moderate,” and 14% “conservative.”

This trend among Democrats lines up with a clear shift to the Left among Democratic Members of Congress and Democrats running for president. When Joe Biden is considered a “moderate” among Democrats, you know the party has taken a sharp left turn.

But what about Republicans as “conservatives”? The problem is that the term “conservative” has lost its meaning among many in the Republican Party, particularly during the era of Trump. After all, President Trump has identified himself as a “nationalist.” And his main policy positions and political rhetoric rank as “populist.” And populism is not conservatism.

While a slippery term, populism has some common threads over the decades, namely, fear of something or some groups, opposition to a vague group of “elites,” and claims of being victims. So, populists often rail against bankers and big business. Today, key populist targets are free trade, immigration, and once more, sometimes vague “elites.” Like leftist Progressives, populists seek to engage government on their behalf, for their own causes, while vehemently opposing government action for issues they oppose.

The populist outlook stands in stark contrast to what traditional conservatism has stood for and encompassed. A traditional conservative generally understands and subscribes to Judeo-Christian values, free enterprise, free markets, and a strong national defense, with key policy positions being low taxes, smaller government, a light regulatory touch, strength in foreign policy and national security, free trade, and a social policy agenda led by being pro-life and pro-traditional marriage. Conservatism embraces freedom and personal responsibility, as well as compassion and charity. Conservatism views government in Madisonian terms, that is government more or less is a necessary evil that must be limited to basic duties, such as protecting life, limb and property. Conservatism certainly doesn’t accept the populist/Progressive idea that “We’re all victims now,” and government needs to do something about it, whether that be imposing protectionist trade policies, or breaking up large technology companies that populists fear or with which they disagree.

In the end, populism has more in common with Progressivism than conservatism, and yet, most populists today identify as conservatives. 

Therefore, that 37% of Americans identifying as “conservative” turns out to be rather meaningless. How many in this group are actually populists rather than conservatives? No one knows, but it’s clear that it’s a far bigger chunk than perhaps many of us suspected just a few years ago. And that casts serious doubt on the notion that America is still a center-right country.

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, a novelist (his latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series), an economist, a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Thursday, March 8, 2018

The Real Deal on the Trade Deficit

There's a disturbing amount of political blather about the trade deficit these days. How about some common sense economics? Get the real deal on the trade deficit in the latest episode of the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast with Ray Keating

Listen at http://www.buzzsprout.com/155969/656803-episode-4-the-real-deal-on-the-trade-deficit


Monday, April 18, 2016

Trump’s Huge Recession

by Ray Keating

Way back in 1970, the late Nobel Prize-winning economist Milton Friedman wrote, “I have been impressed time and again by the schizophrenic character of many businessmen. They are capable of being extremely farsighted and clearheaded in matters that are internal to their businesses. They are incredibly shortsighted and muddleheaded in matters that are outside their business but affect the possible survival of business in general.”

This phenomenon has only spread over the past 45-plus years. We now are constantly berated by corporate executives and high-profile investors saying things about the economy and public policy that make absolutely no economic sense. These leaders in business turn out to be economic illiterates.

Unfortunately, one of these economic illiterate businessmen just happens to be leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination in 2016. Of course, I speak of businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump.

It’s not easy figuring out how Trump came to rise and stay atop the GOP field. But to a significant degree, the Trump train keeps chugging along due to the fuel of populism. Specifically, Trump has played on or ginned up people’s fears, in particular, irrational fears of foreigners. After all, Trump is the guy who is going to fix “bad trade deals,” apparently by imposing massive tariffs on products from nations with which we run trade deficits, like Mexico, China and Japan. Trump also plans to create a “deportation force” to move 11-12 million illegal immigrants out of the nation.

While this might be classic populist politics, it’s also classically wrongheaded populist economics. Trump misses simple economic facts.

For example, in the U.S., periods of higher economic growth usually coincide with shrinking trade surpluses or mounting trade deficits, while economic slowdowns and recessions coincide with declines in trade deficits. The U.S. trade deficit shrank dramatically during the 2007-2009 recession, declined during the slowdown and recession in 1990-91, and during the economic woes of 1979 to 1982, the trade deficit not only declined, but shifted to a surplus during two of those years. Indeed, the surest way to “cure” a trade deficit is with a recession.

For good measure, the last time the U.S. went down the path of protectionism, it did not turn out well, to say the least. As a result of protectionist tariff measures passed in 1921 and 1922, and, most egregiously, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, trade declined. Most egregious, the Smoot-Hawley measure triggered the Great Depression. It took decades for trade to regain previous levels.

Make no mistake, free trade – that is, reducing governmental barriers and costs to trade – is a positive for economic growth; for increased opportunity for U.S. entrepreneurs, small businesses and workers; as well as for expanding choices and reducing costs for U.S. consumers.

And trade is increasingly important to the U.S. economy. From 2000 to 2015, for example, the growth in real U.S. exports equaled 22.5 percent of the growth in real GDP, and the expansion in real total trade (i.e., exports plus imports) came in at 41.6 percent of real GDP growth. Also, consider that in 1950, U.S. exports equaled 4.2 percent of GDP, and imports registered 4 percent, while in 2015, exports had jumped to 12.6 percent of GDP, and imports to 15.5 percent of the U.S. economy.

Donald Trump misses all of this, apparently.

As for immigration, few disagree that the current system, which allowed for 11-12 million people to be in the nation illegally, needs to be fixed. Indeed, respect for the rule of law demands immigration reform. At the same time, it must be recognized that most immigrants – both legal and illegal – come to this nation seeking a better life, and they contribute as workers, business owners and consumers. For good measure, immigrants also benefit the economy by overwhelmingly doing work that is complementary to the native born.

Given these economic realities, the Trump agenda of tariffs and deportation would inflict serious harm on the U.S. economy.

On trade, American Action Forum, a free enterprise group, has estimated that Trump’s plan for imposing significant tariffs on imports from China and Mexico would hit U.S. consumers with $250 billion in annual costs.

For good measure, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has projected that the Trump tariffs on China and Mexico would bring about a significant recession: “The U.S. recession would set in within the first year under Trump’s proposed trade policies, which include a 35 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and a 45 percent tax on goods coming in from China. Over the next three years, the U.S. economy would shrink by 4.6 percent and the unemployment rate would nearly double to 9.5 percent.”

As for the Trump – as well as Senator Ted Cruz – deportation agenda, the story for the economy gets even worse. The American Action Forum offers the following points and estimates:

• To deport all illegal immigrants in the nation in two years, as Trump proposes, the federal taxpayer costs would be massive. These would include federal immigration apprehension personnel increasing from 4,844 positions to 90,582 positions; the number of immigration detention beds jumping from 34,000 to 348,831; immigration courts rising from 58 to 1,316; and the number of federal attorneys legally processing undocumented immigrants increasing from 1,430 to 32,445.

• As for the economic costs, they are even more frightening. AAF reports: “The result is a sudden and deep recession similar to what the United States recently experienced during the Great Recession. Let’s say that full immigration enforcement starts at the beginning of 2017 and the U.S. government successfully removes all undocumented immigrants by the end of 2018. At the end of 2018, the labor force would be 6.4 percent smaller than if the government had not removed those immigrants. Relative to CBO baseline projections, the labor force would decrease by 10.3 million workers. As a result, the labor force would fall to its lowest level since 2006. In addition, the labor force participation rate would fall from about 62.3 percent to 60.7 percent, the lowest level since the 1970s. The steep decline in the labor force would cause the economy to decline sharply. At the end of 2018, the economy would be 5.7 percent smaller than it would be if the government did not remove all undocumented immigrants. For purposes of comparison, note that the decline in real GDP during the Great Recession was quite similar – 6.3 percent. This suggests that real GDP would be about $1 trillion lower in 2018 than CBO’s baseline estimate, wiping out all economic growth that would have occurred during the previous three years.”

The most likely outcome of the Trump tariff and deportation agenda? A huge recession.

None of this should be surprising to anyone who understands the economics and history of both trade and immigration.

But maybe Trump has an excuse. After all, his business career seems to be best known for four high-profile business bankruptcies in a span of 18 years. Milton Friedman was bewildered by businessmen being “farsighted and clearheaded” in their own businesses but “shortsighted and muddleheaded” on matters outside their business. It can be argued that Trump is shortsighted and muddleheaded on matters both inside and outside his businesses.

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Mr. Keating is an economist and novelist who writes on a wide range of topics. His Pastor Stephen Grant novels have received considerable acclaim, including The River: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel being a finalist for KFUO radio’s Book of the Year 2014, and Murderer’s Row: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel winning Book of the Year 2015.

The Pastor Stephen Grant Novels are available at Amazon…