Doubts About the U.S. Still Being a Right-of-Center Country

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – January 11, 2020

The United States has long been identified as a right-of-center country when it comes to politics. But is that still the case? A new Gallup poll proclaims that it is, but I have reasons for doubt.

In a January 9, 2020, release, Gallup declared, “The U.S. Remained Center-Right, Ideologically, in 2019.” Let’s consider the pollster’s findings.

Gallup reported that 37% of American adults described their political views as “conservative,” while 35% said “moderate” and 24% “liberal.” Well, conservatives should be pleased, so far.

But Americans also leaned more Democrat than Republican in terms of party preference or leaning – with 47% aligning themselves with the Democrats and 42% with Republicans. Gallup noted, “Americans' political leanings have been quite stable since 2016, the year Donald Trump was elected president. The Democratic figure has not changed in the past four years, and the Republican figure has been 41% or 42% each year since 2012.”

Interestingly, none of this is terribly new. Looking at Gallup’s polling back to the early 1990s, more people identify as “conservative” and “moderate” than “liberal,” but at the same time, party preference (including how independents leaned) generally has been Democrat over Republican.

Meanwhile, the breakdown of how Republicans and Democrats identify their political views has skewed in directions one might expect. For example, in 1994, Republicans broke down at 58% “conservative,” 33% “moderate,” and 8% “liberal. That compared to the 2019 breakdown among Republicans as 73% “conservative,” 21% “moderate,” and 4% “liberal.”

The trend, unsurprisingly, has been in the opposite direction among Democrats – but more drastic. In 1994, 48% identified as “moderate,” 25% “liberal,” and 25% “conservative.” That compared to a 2109 breakdown among Democrats of 49% “liberal,” 36% “moderate,” and 14% “conservative.”

This trend among Democrats lines up with a clear shift to the Left among Democratic Members of Congress and Democrats running for president. When Joe Biden is considered a “moderate” among Democrats, you know the party has taken a sharp left turn.

But what about Republicans as “conservatives”? The problem is that the term “conservative” has lost its meaning among many in the Republican Party, particularly during the era of Trump. After all, President Trump has identified himself as a “nationalist.” And his main policy positions and political rhetoric rank as “populist.” And populism is not conservatism.

While a slippery term, populism has some common threads over the decades, namely, fear of something or some groups, opposition to a vague group of “elites,” and claims of being victims. So, populists often rail against bankers and big business. Today, key populist targets are free trade, immigration, and once more, sometimes vague “elites.” Like leftist Progressives, populists seek to engage government on their behalf, for their own causes, while vehemently opposing government action for issues they oppose.

The populist outlook stands in stark contrast to what traditional conservatism has stood for and encompassed. A traditional conservative generally understands and subscribes to Judeo-Christian values, free enterprise, free markets, and a strong national defense, with key policy positions being low taxes, smaller government, a light regulatory touch, strength in foreign policy and national security, free trade, and a social policy agenda led by being pro-life and pro-traditional marriage. Conservatism embraces freedom and personal responsibility, as well as compassion and charity. Conservatism views government in Madisonian terms, that is government more or less is a necessary evil that must be limited to basic duties, such as protecting life, limb and property. Conservatism certainly doesn’t accept the populist/Progressive idea that “We’re all victims now,” and government needs to do something about it, whether that be imposing protectionist trade policies, or breaking up large technology companies that populists fear or with which they disagree.

In the end, populism has more in common with Progressivism than conservatism, and yet, most populists today identify as conservatives. 

Therefore, that 37% of Americans identifying as “conservative” turns out to be rather meaningless. How many in this group are actually populists rather than conservatives? No one knows, but it’s clear that it’s a far bigger chunk than perhaps many of us suspected just a few years ago. And that casts serious doubt on the notion that America is still a center-right country.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, a novelist (his latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series), an economist, a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.