by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – September 27, 2020
On Tuesday night (September 29), Americans will be “treated” to a presidential debate between … well, quite frankly … two inarticulate, creepy old guys – one touting a Leftist agenda and the other offering populist screeds. Ugh. Thank goodness that the baseball postseason starts on Tuesday as well.
Anyway, President Donald Trump (R) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) are the two major party candidates the nation is stuck with, so let’s take a look at where the polls show the race at the current moment.
The national polling indicates that with just over a month until the election, President Donald Trump is in trouble. Polls show Trump consistently trailing Biden by anywhere from 6 to 10 percentage points. In terms of percentages, Biden is running in the upper 40s to low 50s, while Trump is running in the low 40s, occasionally upper 30s.
That’s a daunting deficit to overcome. It’s hard to see Trump changing minds in his favor. Instead, the president’s hope lies with Biden doing or saying something breathtakingly stupid.
Yes, this is another election more about voting against a candidate, rather than for someone – though not as extreme on this front as was the 2016 election.
But as many people learned in 2016, the presidential race actually is a race state-by-state, decided in the Electoral College. So, let’s look at the battleground states.
Arizona (11 electoral votes) has moved around, with the latest polls pointing to Biden having a narrow lead.
Florida (29 electoral votes) continues to rank as a toss-up, with the latest polls putting Biden slightly ahead.
Michigan (16 electoral votes) shows Biden holding a consistent lead, and coming in at or above 50 percent.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) shows Biden holding a consistent lead in the latest state polls.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes) remains a dead heat.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) remains a challenge for President Trump. While the race is close, Biden has held a consistent lead, and some of the latest polls put Biden’s tally above 50 percent.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) continues to look strong for Biden, with his recent poll tallies topping the 50 percent mark.
Ohio (18 electoral votes) offer polls that indicate the race is very close. At the same time, the latest numbers point to a shift in Biden’s direction.
Iowa (6 electoral votes) is a dead heat.
Georgia (16 electoral votes) is a dead heat. That’s a troubling development for Trump and Republicans, given that this should be a Republican state.
Nevada (6 electoral votes) has served up recent polls that range from a dead heat to Biden being up by 11 points.
Texas (38 electoral votes) should be strong Republican country, but it continues to be a statistical dead heat. Recent polls put Trump up slightly – anywhere from 1 to 5 percentage points.
Everything had to break for Donald Trump to win in 2016, with him taking the Electoral College 306-232 (though the final tally of actual votes was 304-227). In order to win the presidency, 270 electoral votes are needed.
While Trump looks competitive in Nevada, which was won by Hillary Clinton in 2016, Biden is showing real strength in at least three states that Trump won in 2016 – Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Plus, there are effective dead heats in seven other states that went for Trump in 2016.
If the election were held today, it looks like Biden would grab at least 288 electoral votes, while perhaps running as high as a landslide level of 421.
In the end, elections are determined by who actually comes out to vote. With the pandemic in the mix, plus President Trump’s shameful statements undermining confidence in U.S. elections, projecting turnout will be more difficult than perhaps ever before.
As for this election being about a Leftist versus a populist, like I said, there’s baseball.
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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…
“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”
“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”
“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”
“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”
“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”
“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”
“2020 Politics as the Conventions Get Rolling … Kind of?”
“Biden Picks Harris: Will It Matter on Election Night?”
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating’s latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club. Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship
Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast
Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.
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