by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – September 4, 2020
The quasi-virtual Democratic and Republican conventions are behind us (thank you, Lord) and Labor Day is upon us. So, where does the 2020 presidential race stand at this point in time?
As for the less-than-titanic struggle between the eloquence-challenged major party candidates for president – that is, President Donald Trump (R) and former Vice President Joe Biden (D) – Biden continues to hold a solid lead in the national polls, while matters get a bit more “interesting” when breaking the race down by state.
It’s clear that Trump received no convention bump after GOP finished up their gathering with Trump’s speech on August 27 before a maskless Republican Party. Looking at all of the national polls taken after the last day of the GOP convention, Biden’s lead ranges from anywhere from 5 percentage point to 11 points.
It’s also stunning that nearly all of these polls show Biden polling in the low 50s and Trump in the low 40s. If the election were held today (which it obviously is not), this would mean a big win for Biden in terms of the national popular vote. In fact, one could make the case that Democrat Biden got a bump coming out of the Republican convention.
But let’s look at the battleground states.
Arizona (11 electoral votes) has moved in Biden’s direction in a major way, with the latest polls putting him up by 9-10 percentage points.
Florida (29 electoral votes) ranks as a toss-up, with one post-convention poll putting Trump up by three points, and the other putting Biden up by three points. However, the Quinnipiac poll, which has Biden up by three, tends to be more reliable that the Trafalgar poll with Trump up by three.
Michigan (16 electoral votes) still leans to Biden. Trump has consistently trailed Biden, and the two post-convention polls show Biden up by 4 to 10 points.
Minnesota (10 electoral votes) still offers Trump some hope, as the race appears closer than anticipated. However, Biden continues to hold a small lead in the latest state polls.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes) is a dead heat. Among post-convention polls, two have Biden up by four points, and the other has Trump up by two.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) remains a challenge for President Trump, but the race clearly has tightened. The post-convention polls show the Pennsylvania contest ranging from even to Biden up by eight points.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes) has been and remains looking strong for Biden, with the post-convention polls showing him having an eight percentage point lead.
Ohio (18 electoral votes) has not served up any polls clear of the convention. However, based on the polls we do have, Trump seems to have a very narrow lead.
Iowa (6 electoral votes) has not offered any recent polls. The latest surveys from late July/early August indicate a dead heat.
Georgia (16 electoral votes) has one poll clear of the convention, and it shows Trump up by seven points. That’s where one might expect this long-GOP state to be, but assorted previous polls showed the race very close. Georgia certainly warrants watching.
Nevada (6 electoral votes) has been sparse on polling, but the latest poll (in the field from August 20-30) put Biden up by four points (i.e., within the margin of error).
Texas (38 electoral votes) should be Republican country, but it has loomed as a battleground in this election. There are no polls clear of the convention. But the latest surveys from the latter half of August have the race a dead heat – one poll with Trump up by a point and one with Biden up by a point. If you need an example of how crazy politics are today, just consider Texas being a battleground state.
Keep in mind that everything had to break Donald Trump’s way to get elected in 2016, with him taking took the Electoral College 306-232 (though the final tally of actual votes was 304-227). In order to win the presidency, 270 electoral votes are needed.
This year, it appears the Trump is at least competitive in two states won by Hillary Clinton in 2016 – Minnesota and Nevada.
At the same time, Biden is showing real strength in at least four states that Trump won in 2016 – Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Plus, there are effective dead heats in five other states that went for Trump in 2016.
This tallies up to a formidable challenge for President Trump to be re-elected. Indeed, if the election were held today, a conservative estimate would have Biden winning the White House with 310 to 339 electoral votes.
Of course, even in a presidential election with so many voters’ views seemingly hardened in place, anything can happen over the coming two months. And in the end, the story will be told by who actually votes.
An aging, inarticulate populist versus an aging, inarticulate leftist hardly makes for an encouraging election, but I guess it could at least be entertaining?
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating’s latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club. Check it all out at
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