Showing posts with label immigration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label immigration. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 23, 2021
On Entrepreneurship and Immigrants
Thursday, April 22, 2021
Presidents and Their Hobbies
by Chris Lucas
Guest Column
The Keating Files – April 22, 2021
Former President George W. Bush has published a book of portraits he created of immigrants to the United States, called Out of Many, One: Portraits of America's Immigrants.
It’s Bush’s second book of such portraits. Many are surprised to see his aptitude for painting, which - along with long distance running - is his hobby.
Presidents are just like everyone else and enjoy a variety of unique hobbies to blow off steam from the pressures of the job. Many of the presidents have even had the White House and Camp David modified to allow them easy access to pursuing their hobbies during downtime.
President Biden, whose father ran an automobile dealership when he was a boy, is an avid vintage car enthusiast and collector.
Biden still has the first car he ever owned, a 1967 green Chevy Corvette, which sits in his garage at his home in Delaware. When he’s there, President Biden can often be found either working on the 1967 car or driving it around (though his route is more limited now.)
The four presidents whose faces are on Mount Rushmore also had hobbies that distinguished them.
George Washington was a skilled ballroom dancer.
Thomas Jefferson collected rare French wines.
Abraham Lincoln wrestled to relax, and out of hundreds of recorded bouts only lost one time.
And Teddy Roosevelt was an avid boxer who held matches at the White House. In one of those fights, the president’s opponent in the ring - a professional pugilist - connected with Roosevelt’s head and detached his retina, permanently blinding him in one eye.
Teddy’s cousin, Franklin D. Roosevelt, chose a tamer White House hobby. FDR was a philatelist, with an impressive stamp collection that he would go over every night when time permitted. He also consulted with his Postmaster General on the designs for new stamps during his 13 years as president.
Here are some of the main hobbies of the presidents since FDR:
Harry Truman - piano playing
Dwight Eisenhower - golfing, painting
John F. Kennedy - sailing, golfing
Lyndon B. Johnson - horseback riding
Richard Nixon - bowling, piano playing
Gerald R. Ford - tennis, golfing
Jimmy Carter - fishing
Ronald Reagan - horseback riding
George H. W. Bush - horseback riding, playing horseshoes
Bill Clinton - saxophone playing, crossword puzzles
George W. Bush - running, painting
Barack Obama - comic book collecting, golfing
Donald Trump – golfing
What are your favorite hobbies?
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Chris Lucas is a writer, something of a cultural historian, actor, and the author of Top Disney: 100 Top Ten Lists of the Best of Disney, from the Man to the Mouse and Beyond.
On the PRESS CLUB C Podcast, enjoy Ray’s recent discussion with Chris Lucas about his career as an actor, author and Disney expert. Tune in right here!
Sunday, March 7, 2021
St. Patrick’s Day Approaches: How Immigrants Shaped Our Cuisine
by Chris Lucas
Guest Column
The Keating Files – March 7, 2021
March is here, and for many that means the month of green - from flowers and trees just beginning to blossom to Saint Patrick’s Day and everything associated with it.
One of the things people think of immediately with Saint Patrick’s Day is the hearty traditional meal of corned beef and cabbage.
Did you know that, in Ireland itself, corned beef isn’t really a delicacy or traditional? Bacon or lamb is their meal of choice on Saint Patrick’s Day.
So why corned beef? Immigration.
People have been making corned beef since the Middle Ages. It’s a way to preserve meat using grains of rock salt (which was often called corn in Europe) and potassium nitrate (Salt Peter), which turns the meat bright pink. In some areas they skip the nitrate, and the beef turns gray (sometimes known as New England Corned Beef or Boiled Beef.)
Cattle was plentiful in Ireland in the 1600s and 1700s, and corned beef was produced and exported in mass quantities. The problem was that the British were shipping all of the food out of the country and not leaving any for their poor Irish tenant farmers, who relied on potatoes and root vegetables as staple meals, along with pork, which the British disdained.
The famine and blight in Ireland in the mid 1800s wiped out the potato crop, causing The Great Hunger. The Irish were denied education, left with scraps and forced to work long hours doing manual labor for bits of food.
That caused a massive Irish migration to the United States, mostly to big cities on the East Coast, like New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Savannah. Some even went west, to places like Pittsburgh, Cleveland and Chicago.
It was in those cities that the Irish-Americans thrived. Their children were given free educations, and the hope was that they wouldn’t have to work at manual labor jobs causing their shoulders to grow large and their lives to be cut short. This new generation was called “Narrow Backs.”
It was that group who began to mingle with the Italian and Eastern European immigrants who populated the same crowded neighborhoods and tenements. They spoke each other’s languages and ate each other’s food. That’s where corned beef comes in.
Jewish immigrants from Europe discovered that beef in the United States was plentiful and cheap, offering a culinary option other than pork. They cured and pickled the beef in brine, creating New York style corned beef and pastrami.
The Irish fell in love with corned beef, which they were denied back home. It was a cheap meal that they could throw in a pot with vegetables and cabbage to feed their family for days.
Since New York invented the Saint Patrick’s Day parade in 1762, gatherings after the event became popular. Corned beef and cabbage was the go-to dish. It became so associated with March and the Irish that Abraham Lincoln had it served at the banquet to celebrate his inauguration in March, 1861.
One last corned beef innovation came in 1914 when a Broadway star wandered into Arnold Reuben’s New York restaurant late at night after a show. She demanded a new dish, so he whipped together corned beef, Swiss cheese, sauerkraut, and Russian Dressing, heating and melting it all on Rye.
Thus was born the non-Kosher - mixing dairy and meat is a no-no - Reuben Sandwich. (A hotel in Omaha, Nebraska, also claims to be the birthplace, but New York is more likely.)
Today, some of the best corned beef in the world can still be found in Jewish delicatessens and Irish Pubs.
You can enjoy it on rye (and only on rye, preferably with mustard. As Buddy Hackett once said “Any time a gentile orders corned beef on white bread with mayo, a Jew faints somewhere.”) with an ice cold Coke or with a green beer.
When you do, be sure to say a quiet thank you to all of the immigrants who made corned beef an American staple.
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Chris Lucas is the author of Top Disney: 100 Top Ten Lists of the Best of Disney, from the Man to the Mouse and Beyond.
On the PRESS CLUB C Podcast, enjoy Ray’s discussion with Chris Lucas about his career as an actor, author and Disney expert. Tune in right here!
Friday, March 5, 2021
Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #96: Immigration and the Economy, Part III: Economists Weigh In
Ray Keating continues to look at the issue of immigration, and considers what a wide array of economists have to say on the issue. Listen here!
Saturday, January 30, 2021
Rebuilding Conservatism #5: Reagan on the Importance of Immigration to America
Remarks by President Ronald Reagan
The Keating Files – January 30, 2021
(Editor’s Note: Much damage has been inflicted on conservatism, conservative thought, and the conservative movement in recent years. The effort to heal and rebuild conservatism promises to be a difficult, but necessary undertaking. The Keating Files will regularly weigh in to help that process. This is our fifth “Rebuilding Conservatism” column.)
In recent years, the Republican Party and parts of conservatism have turned in a dark direction on immigration. Largely succumbing to or peddling zero-sum and populist irrationalities, significant numbers of those on the Right have neglected not only Economics 101 on the benefits of immigration (for example, listen to Episode #13 of the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast titled “Immigration is Plus for the Economy”), but also the wisdom on immigration served up by Ronald Reagan in his very last speech as president of the United States. The relevant text (from the Reagan Library) and video portion of the Reagan speech on January 19, 1989, follow. – Ray Keating
Now, tomorrow is a special day for me. I'm going to receive my gold watch. And since this is the last speech that I will give as President, I think it's fitting to leave one final thought, an observation about a country which I love. It was stated best in a letter I received not long ago. A man wrote me and said: “You can go to live in France, but you cannot become a Frenchman. You can go to live in Germany or Turkey or Japan, but you cannot become a German, a Turk, or a Japanese. But anyone, from any corner of the Earth, can come to live in America and become an American.”
Yes, the torch of Lady Liberty symbolizes our freedom and represents our heritage, the compact with our parents, our grandparents, and our ancestors. It is that lady who gives us our great and special place in the world. For it's the great life force of each generation of new Americans that guarantees that America's triumph shall continue unsurpassed into the next century and beyond. Other countries may seek to compete with us; but in one vital area, as a beacon of freedom and opportunity that draws the people of the world, no country on Earth comes close.
This, I believe, is one of the most important sources of America's greatness. We lead the world because, unique among nations, we draw our people -- our strength -- from every country and every corner of the world. And by doing so we continuously renew and enrich our nation. While other countries cling to the stale past, here in America we breathe life into dreams. We create the future, and the world follows us into tomorrow. Thanks to each wave of new arrivals to this land of opportunity, we're a nation forever young, forever bursting with energy and new ideas, and always on the cutting edge, always leading the world to the next frontier. This quality is vital to our future as a nation. If we ever closed the door to new Americans, our leadership in the world would soon be lost.
A number of years ago, an American student traveling in Europe took an East German ship across the Baltic Sea. One of the ship's crewmembers from East Germany, a man in his sixties, struck up a conversation with the American student. After a while the student asked the man how he had learned such good English. And the man explained that he had once lived in America. He said that for over a year he had worked as a farmer in Oklahoma and California, that he had planted tomatoes and picked ripe melons. It was, the man said, the happiest time of his life. Well, the student, who had seen the awful conditions behind the Iron Curtain, blurted out the question, “Well, why did you ever leave?” “I had to,” he said, “the war ended.” The man had been in America as a German prisoner of war.
Now, I don't tell this story to make the case for former POW's. Instead, I tell this story just to remind you of the magical, intoxicating power of America. We may sometimes forget it, but others do not. Even a man from a country at war with the United States, while held here as a prisoner, could fall in love with us. Those who become American citizens love this country even more. And that's why the Statue of Liberty lifts her lamp to welcome them to the golden door.
It is bold men and women, yearning for freedom and opportunity, who leave their homelands and come to a new country to start their lives over. They believe in the American dream. And over and over, they make it come true for themselves, for their children, and for others. They give more than they receive. They labor and succeed. And often they are entrepreneurs. But their greatest contribution is more than economic, because they understand in a special way how glorious it is to be an American. They renew our pride and gratitude in the United States of America, the greatest, freest nation in the world -- the last, best hope of man on Earth.
- President Ronald Reagan
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Other articles in the Rebuilding Conservatism Series…
“Rebuilding Conservatism #3: Lessons in Economics, Part I – Thinking about Trade”
“Rebuilding Conservatism #2: Free Trade Rocks and Protectionism Sucks”
“Rebuilding Conservatism #1: What is Conservatism?”
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. His new book Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13th thriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com.
The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know.
One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club. Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship
Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast
Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.
Wednesday, October 7, 2020
A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration
by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – October 7, 2020
With a presidential election less than a month away, the political silly season has shifted into high gear. And that’s saying something because we now live in a 24/7, 365-days-a-year political silly season.
It’s not just the calendar that signals the current stage of such silliness, but what politicians are saying and doing as well. For example, these days it’s standard fare to rail against technology firms and immigrants, while, of course, ignoring actual economics. After all, economics and reason can be an annoying distraction when trying to turn out one’s political base.
So, we have a hot-off-the-presses report from the Democratic staff of the House Antitrust Subcommittee that accuses tech companies Amazon, Facebook, Alphabet (i.e., Google), and Apple of wielding monopoly power, and stomping out competition and innovation. The Democrats ominously declared, “Our economy and democracy are at stake.” Golly.
The Democrats tossed out some ideas for government action, including forcing companies to separate certain lines of business and more forceful antitrust powers.
Not to be out done, Republicans on the subcommittee chimed in with their own report, which asserted that “Big Tech is out to get conservatives.” Golly … again.
In reality, this political stunt fails to take note of the vast innovation that is ongoing in and around the internet; the ever-multiplying choices and reduced costs for consumers; the expanded opportunities for entrepreneurs and small businesses; and the fact that no tech company, no matter how big it happens to be today, can afford to sit back like a fat monopoly, and raise costs or reduce quality for consumers. Were that to happen, that company would be crushed by new or existing competitors, and consumers would quickly move on.
Political grandstanding and antitrust regulation are by nature backward looking. Trying to guide and regulate a sector of our economy via antitrust is the equivalent of putting a government bureaucrat in an industry driver’s seat – which should make us all very uneasy – and then have that political appointee drive the car while looking in the rearview mirror. This has always been the case, but given the fast-changing, dynamic nature of our tech economy, it’s particularly ridiculous and dangerous.
The question really is quite simple. Who do you want calling the shots in the end: consumers or government? If you favor consumers, then let tech companies – big, small, emerging and still-yet-to-be-born – compete to serve consumers. If you favor government, then forget consumers, let politics reign, and pull more technology under the control of government. After all, how could that possibly go wrong?
Oh yeah, and by the way, regarding accusations from Republicans – in particular, populists – who say that tech companies are out to get them, well, while Silicon Valley clearly leans strongly Left in terms of its prevailing politics, the tech tools they produce seem to be serving Republicans and populists quite well. Hmmm, go figure.
For good measure, Democratic presidential candidate and former Vice President Joe Biden also favors increased antitrust regulation. For example, a Biden campaign spokesman toldThe Wall Street Journal recently: “Many technology giants and their executives have not only abused their power, but misled the American people, damaged our democracy, and evaded any form of responsibility. That ends with a President Biden.” Golly, one more time.
But attacks on so-called Big Tech can’t stop there during the political silly season. How about a two-for-one policy change that not only slaps U.S. tech companies, but immigrants as well? President Trump and his administration certainly can’t pass up that opportunity. After all, that anti-immigration base needs shoring up.
As a result, the Departments of Homeland Security and Labor have announced a tightening of requirements for H1-B visas, which cover high-skilled foreign workers. Apparently, it’s time to make it tougher to bring in such immigrants and to raise the costs of doing so.
The new regulations, according to officials, will increase the level of rejected H1-B visa applications, and mandate that H1-B visa workers receive higher pay. Wait, is that like an increased minimum wage for immigrants? The political folks might want to take a closer look at that – could be a bad look with the base.
Joe Biden also favors jacking up government mandated wages for H1-B visa workers.
This entire effort, of course, is built upon the fiction that immigrants coming to the U.S. take jobs from native-born Americans, drive down wages, and contribute nothing. But the truth is that these and other immigrants fill jobs that U.S. businesses cannot fill otherwise; do complementary work that enhances the productivity and incomes of native-born workers; generate further growth as producers and consumers; and have a higher propensity for entrepreneurship than do the native born. Immigration, as most economists will tell you, is a net-plus for the economy, and studies overwhelmingly show no negative effects on wages of the native born due to immigration.
The U.S. economy is not a zero-sum game, whereby one person’s gain is another’s loss. Instead, when not held back by pandemics, government shutdowns, and/or costly public policies like high taxes and onerous regulations, entrepreneurs, investors, businesses and workers – including tech companies and immigrants – drive wealth creation, economic growth, productivity, income growth, and job creation forward.
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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…
“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”
“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”
“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”
“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”
“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”
“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”
“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”
“2020 Politics as the Conventions Get Rolling … Kind of?”
“Biden Picks Harris: Will It Matter on Election Night?”
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating’s latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club. Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship
Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast
Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.
Thursday, June 18, 2020
PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #15: Immigration, Bolton’s Book and Baseball
Ray works through some controversial issues in this episode. He wonders why people don’t get it on immigration, notes some deeply distressing tidbits from John Bolton’s forthcoming book, and makes clear that we better see baseball soon. Tune in now!
Sunday, February 23, 2020
Pre-Order BEHIND ENEMY LINES: CONSERVATIVE COMMUNIQUES FROM LEFT-WING NEW YORK - Signed by Ray Keating
NEW! Sale on the PRE-ORDER of BEHIND ENEMY LINES: CONSERVATIVE COMMUNIQUES FROM LEFT-WING NEW YORK - Signed by Ray Keating – Go to https://raykeatingonline.com/products/behindenemylines
Here’s a wide-ranging collection of columns and essays from Ray Keating covering faith, economics, politics, history, trade, New York, foreign affairs, immigration, pop culture, business, sports, books, and more.
Keating is a longtime newspaper and online columnist, economist, policy analyst, and novelist.
In these often confusing and contradictory times, Keating describes his brand of conservatism as traditional, American and Reagan-esque, firmly rooted in Judeo-Christian values, Western Civilization, the Declaration of Independence, the U.S. Constitution, and essential ideas and institutions such as the Christian Church, the intrinsic value of each individual, the role of the family, freedom and individual responsibility, limited government, and free enterprise and free markets.
Here are the major sections of Behind Enemy Lines from the Table of Contents...
• Introduction: What is Conservatism?
• Faith Matters
• Economics Isn’t Dismal ... Unless Left to Politicians, the Media and Professors
• Politics: Unsavory and Not-So-Unsavory
• Why Does Anyone Live in New York?
• The Not-So-Ugly American
• Trying to Learn from History
• Business Isn’t Evil
• Trade: Opportunity and Stupidity
• Immigration: Hope and Opportunity
• Pop Culture Ponderings
• Sports: The Great Diversion ... Mostly
• Thoughts on Assorted Books
Sunday, June 24, 2018
Free Enterprise in Three Minutes - Episode #13: Immigration is Plus for the Economy
Ray Keating puts aside the
partisan politics and sets the record straight on the actual economics of immigration.
And it turns out that immigration ranks as an economic plus.
Tune in at
Monday, April 18, 2016
Trump’s Huge Recession
by Ray Keating
Way back in 1970, the late Nobel Prize-winning economist
Milton Friedman wrote, “I have been impressed time and again by the
schizophrenic character of many businessmen. They are capable of being
extremely farsighted and clearheaded in matters that are internal to their
businesses. They are incredibly shortsighted and muddleheaded in matters that
are outside their business but affect the possible survival of business in
general.”
This phenomenon has only spread over the past 45-plus years.
We now are constantly berated by corporate executives and high-profile
investors saying things about the economy and public policy that make absolutely
no economic sense. These leaders in business turn out to be economic
illiterates.
Unfortunately, one of these economic illiterate businessmen
just happens to be leading the race for the Republican presidential nomination
in 2016. Of course, I speak of businessman and reality TV star Donald Trump.
It’s not easy figuring out how Trump came to rise and stay
atop the GOP field. But to a significant degree, the Trump train keeps chugging
along due to the fuel of populism. Specifically, Trump has played on or ginned
up people’s fears, in particular, irrational fears of foreigners. After all,
Trump is the guy who is going to fix “bad trade deals,” apparently by imposing
massive tariffs on products from nations with which we run trade deficits, like
Mexico, China and Japan. Trump also plans to create a “deportation
force” to move 11-12 million illegal immigrants out of the nation.
While this might be classic populist politics, it’s also
classically wrongheaded populist economics. Trump misses simple economic facts.
For example, in the U.S., periods of higher economic growth usually
coincide with shrinking trade surpluses or mounting trade deficits, while
economic slowdowns and recessions coincide with declines in trade deficits. The
U.S. trade deficit shrank dramatically during the 2007-2009 recession, declined
during the slowdown and recession in 1990-91, and during the economic woes of
1979 to 1982, the trade deficit not only declined, but shifted to a surplus
during two of those years. Indeed, the surest way to “cure” a trade deficit is
with a recession.
For good measure, the last time the U.S. went down the path
of protectionism, it did not turn out well, to say the least. As a result of
protectionist tariff measures passed in 1921 and 1922, and, most egregiously,
the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930, trade declined. Most egregious, the
Smoot-Hawley measure triggered the Great Depression. It took decades for trade
to regain previous levels.
Make no mistake, free trade – that is, reducing governmental
barriers and costs to trade – is a positive for economic growth; for increased
opportunity for U.S. entrepreneurs, small businesses and workers; as well as
for expanding choices and reducing costs for U.S. consumers.
And trade is increasingly important to the U.S. economy. From 2000 to 2015, for example, the growth in
real U.S. exports equaled 22.5 percent of the growth in real GDP, and the
expansion in real total trade (i.e., exports plus imports) came in at 41.6
percent of real GDP growth. Also, consider that in 1950, U.S. exports equaled
4.2 percent of GDP, and imports registered 4 percent, while in 2015, exports
had jumped to 12.6 percent of GDP, and imports to 15.5 percent of the U.S.
economy.
Donald Trump misses
all of this, apparently.
As for immigration, few disagree that the current system,
which allowed for 11-12 million people to be in the nation illegally, needs to
be fixed. Indeed, respect for the rule of law demands immigration reform. At
the same time, it must be recognized that most immigrants – both legal and illegal
– come to this nation seeking a better life, and they contribute as workers,
business owners and consumers. For good measure, immigrants also benefit the
economy by overwhelmingly doing work that is complementary to the native born.
Given these economic realities, the Trump agenda of tariffs
and deportation would inflict serious harm on the U.S. economy.
On trade, American Action Forum, a free enterprise group,
has estimated
that Trump’s plan for imposing significant tariffs on imports from China and
Mexico would hit U.S. consumers with $250 billion in annual costs.
For good measure, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce has
projected that the Trump tariffs on China and Mexico would bring about a
significant recession: “The U.S. recession would set in within the first year
under Trump’s proposed
trade policies, which include a 35 percent tariff on imports from Mexico
and a 45 percent tax on goods coming in from China. Over the next three years,
the U.S. economy would shrink by 4.6 percent and the unemployment rate would
nearly double to 9.5 percent.”
As for the Trump – as well as Senator Ted Cruz – deportation
agenda, the story for the economy gets even worse. The American Action Forum offers
the following points and estimates:
• To deport all illegal immigrants in the nation in two
years, as Trump proposes, the federal taxpayer costs would be massive. These
would include federal immigration
apprehension personnel increasing from 4,844 positions to 90,582 positions;
the number of immigration detention
beds jumping from 34,000 to 348,831; immigration courts rising from 58 to 1,316; and the number of federal attorneys legally
processing undocumented immigrants increasing from 1,430 to 32,445.
• As for the economic costs, they are even more frightening.
AAF reports: “The result is a sudden and deep recession similar to what the
United States recently experienced during the Great Recession. Let’s say that
full immigration enforcement starts at the beginning of 2017 and the U.S.
government successfully removes all undocumented immigrants by the end of 2018.
At the end of 2018, the labor force would be 6.4 percent smaller than if the
government had not removed those immigrants. Relative to CBO baseline
projections, the labor force would decrease by 10.3 million workers. As a
result, the labor force would fall to its lowest level since 2006. In addition,
the labor force participation rate would fall from about 62.3 percent to 60.7
percent, the lowest level since the 1970s. The steep decline in the labor force
would cause the economy to decline sharply. At the end of 2018, the economy
would be 5.7 percent smaller than it would be if the government did not remove
all undocumented immigrants. For purposes of comparison, note that the decline
in real GDP during the Great Recession was quite similar – 6.3 percent. This
suggests that real GDP would be about $1 trillion lower in 2018 than CBO’s
baseline estimate, wiping out all economic growth that would have occurred
during the previous three years.”
The most likely outcome of the Trump tariff and deportation
agenda? A huge recession.
None of this should be surprising to anyone who understands
the economics and history of both trade and immigration.
But maybe Trump has an excuse. After all, his business
career seems to be best known for four high-profile business bankruptcies in a
span of 18 years. Milton Friedman was bewildered by businessmen being
“farsighted and clearheaded” in their own businesses but “shortsighted and
muddleheaded” on matters outside their business. It can be argued that Trump is
shortsighted and muddleheaded on matters both inside and outside his
businesses.
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Mr. Keating is an
economist and novelist who writes on a wide range of topics. His Pastor Stephen
Grant novels have received considerable acclaim, including The River: A Pastor
Stephen Grant Novel being a finalist for KFUO radio’s Book of the Year 2014,
and Murderer’s Row: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel winning Book of the Year 2015.
The Pastor Stephen
Grant Novels are available at Amazon…
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