by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – November 3, 2020
Today’s election not only is about the White House, but the control of the U.S. Senate as well. Currently, Republicans hold the Senate by a 53-47 margin.
What are the polls telling us about where the Senate might wind up in 2021?
Alabama. Senator Doug Jones is a Democrat who looks destined to lose to Republican Tommy Tuberville.
Arizona. Senator Martha McSally is a Republican, and she looks to be in serious trouble against Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. (Read my piece on this race.)
Colorado. Republican Senator Cory Gardner is trailing Democrat and former governor John Hickenlooper by a yawning margin in the polls.
Georgia. The Peach State actually has two Senate races. Republican Senator David Perdue is up for re-election, and the current seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler. Perdue holds a tiny edge in the polls, while Loeffler is running in a crowded field. Georgia requires the winner to clear the 50 percent mark. If that isn’t hit, there would be a runoff on January 5. Heading into today’s vote, the Loeffler race is destined for January 5, and the Perdue seat could be determined then as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Perdue seat remain Republican and the Loeffler seat go to the Democrats – eventually.
Iowa. Republican Senator Joni Ernst is running ever-so-slightly behind her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. But this race is way too close to call.
Maine. Senator Susan Collins is a Republican who always seems to be hanging on, but she is trailing Democrat Sara Gideon in a tight race.
Montana. Republican Senator Steve Daines is in a dead heat with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock.
North Carolina. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is fighting for his political life against Democrat Cal Cunningham. And despite the fact that Cunningham is embroiled in a scandal involving an affair, he still holds a small, steady lead over Tillis. (Hey, this is 2020, and neither Democrats nor Republicans apparently care about such controversies any longer.)
South Carolina. Republican Lindsey Graham is in a dead heat with Democrats Jaime Harrison.
The polling numbers heading into tonight do not bode well for Republicans holding onto the Senate. In the end, Democrats could grab a Senate majority with 52-54 seats.
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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…
“Trump, Biden, the Pandemic and the Polls”
“Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980”
“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”
“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”
“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”
“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”
“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”
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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
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