For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Last-Minute Take: What Will the Senate Look Like in 2021?

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – November 3, 2020

 

Today’s election not only is about the White House, but the control of the U.S. Senate as well. Currently, Republicans hold the Senate by a 53-47 margin.

 

What are the polls telling us about where the Senate might wind up in 2021?



Alabama. Senator Doug Jones is a Democrat who looks destined to lose to Republican Tommy Tuberville.

 

Arizona. Senator Martha McSally is a Republican, and she looks to be in serious trouble against Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. (Read my piece on this race.)

 

Colorado. Republican Senator Cory Gardner is trailing Democrat and former governor John Hickenlooper by a yawning margin in the polls.

 

Georgia. The Peach State actually has two Senate races. Republican Senator David Perdue is up for re-election, and the current seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler. Perdue holds a tiny edge in the polls, while Loeffler is running in a crowded field. Georgia requires the winner to clear the 50 percent mark. If that isn’t hit, there would be a runoff on January 5. Heading into today’s vote, the Loeffler race is destined for January 5, and the Perdue seat could be determined then as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Perdue seat remain Republican and the Loeffler seat go to the Democrats – eventually.

 

Iowa. Republican Senator Joni Ernst is running ever-so-slightly behind her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. But this race is way too close to call.

 

Maine. Senator Susan Collins is a Republican who always seems to be hanging on, but she is trailing Democrat Sara Gideon in a tight race.

 

Montana. Republican Senator Steve Daines is in a dead heat with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock.

 

North Carolina. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is fighting for his political life against Democrat Cal Cunningham. And despite the fact that Cunningham is embroiled in a scandal involving an affair, he still holds a small, steady lead over Tillis. (Hey, this is 2020, and neither Democrats nor Republicans apparently care about such controversies any longer.)

 

South Carolina. Republican Lindsey Graham is in a dead heat with Democrats Jaime Harrison.

 

The polling numbers heading into tonight do not bode well for Republicans holding onto the Senate. In the end, Democrats could grab a Senate majority with 52-54 seats.

 

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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Trump, Biden, the Pandemic and the Polls”

 

“Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980”

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

 

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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Pre-order the forthcoming Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/vaticanshadows and the Kindle Edition at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08L1HLRP3

 

Also, choose your 2021 TO DO List planner today, and enjoy the pre-order sale! Perfect for you and as Christmas gifts. Choose between The Lutheran Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, The Film Buff’s Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, and The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution. Get more information at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/todolistsolutionplanners

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

 

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