by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – July 5, 2020
If the 2020 presidential election were held today, who would be the favorite to win?
Well, first, let’s look at the presidential election map from 2016. A few points jump out.
First, contrary to many claims, the national polls in 2016 basically had the race right. Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by 48.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Polling problems came in the few key states that swung the race for Trump via the Electoral College, that is, Pennsylvania (20 Electoral College votes), Michigan (16 Electoral College votes) and Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes). Needing 270 electoral votes to win, Trump took the Electoral College 306-232 (though the final tally of actual votes was 304-227).
Second, everything narrowly broke Trump’s way to win the White House. He took Pennsylvania 48.2 percent to 47.5 percent; Michigan 47.3 percent to 47.0 percent; and Wisconsin 47.2 percent to 46.5 percent. For good measure, Trump won Florida by only 48.6 percent to 47.4 percent. To say that was the narrowest of wins is to understate.
Third, the big factor in the 2016 race was that the primary purpose among voters was to vote against someone – against Trump or against Clinton. As it turned out, Hillary Clinton ranked as a breathtakingly unpopular candidate.
Almost four years later, we need to, of course, note the standard disclaimers. Namely, over the coming four months until Election Day, anything can happen. In addition, the latest polls only estimate what the vote would look like if the election were held today.
So, what if the election were, in fact, held today? The polls point to Democrat Joe Biden trouncing President Trump.
National. The recent national polls, over the past week, put Biden up by eight to 12 points. For good measure, the highest percent garnered by Trump was only 41 percent in these polls.
Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). The latest polling puts Biden up by five to 10 points.
Michigan (16 electoral votes). The polling in Michigan ranges widely, with Biden up by anywhere from one point to 13 points.
Wisconsin (10 electoral votes).Again, recent polling ranges from one poll showing Trump being up by one point to all of the other polls pointing to Biden being up by eight to 11 points.
Florida (29 electoral votes).Trump won Florida by 48.6 percent to 47.4 percent in 2016. The latest polls put the Biden-Trump race anywhere from a tie to Biden being up by 9 points.
Iowa (6 electoral votes). Trump won Iowa 51.1 percent to 41.7 percent in 2016. The latest poll for this year’s race put Biden and Trump in a dead heat, with Trump up by one point.
Ohio (18 electoral votes). The last person who won the White House but lost Ohio was John F. Kennedy in 1960. Trump took Ohio 51.3 percent to 43.2 percent. The most recent polls this year are, in effect, a dead heat, with Biden up by 1-2 points.
Arizona (11 electoral votes). Trump won 48.1 percent to 44.6 percent. Among the latest polls, one pointed to Trump being up by four points, while the other two had Biden up by seven points.
Georgia (16 electoral votes). Trump took Georgia by a margin of 50.4 versus 45.3 percent in 2016. The latest poll shows Biden up by two points, that is, a dead heat.
Texas (38 electoral votes). In 2016, Trump won Texas by 52.2 percent to 43.2 percent. Amazingly, Texas ranks as a dead heat this year, according to the latest polls. One poll has Trump up by four points, while another points to Biden up by a point.
North Carolina (15 electoral votes). Trump took the state by 49.8 percent to 46.2 percent four years ago. The latest polls have Biden up by anywhere from one point to seven points.
Looking at these 10 states, a conservativeassessment indicates that Joe Biden could win, perhaps with 333 votes in the Electoral College, or running as high as 357. Of course, the election is not being held today. But the numbers make clear the mighty task facing Donald Trump to gain a second term.
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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?
Keating also is a novelist. His latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12th book in the series. In addition,Heroes and Villains: A Pastor Stephen Grant Short Story is the Pastor Stephen Grant Book of the Month for July. The Kindle price has been cut to $2.99. Big sale on signed books and sets at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/book-of-the-month.
Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast
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