Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #63: Are We in a Recession or Depression?

At first glance, that’s not an easy question to answer because the definition of a recession isn’t exactly crystal clear, and it gets murkier when defining a depression. But Keating tries to clear things up.

The COVID-19 Crisis, Part II: A Bastiat Moment

Part II of a Projected Three-Part Series

(Read Part I Here)
by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – May 21, 2020

The COVID-19 crisis turns out to be a moment to consider a 19^th-century French economist.

Frederic Bastiat (1801-1850) was a leading economic and political thinker. One of Bastiat’s most important insights has popped up among those who have been arguing strongly against any kind of government restrictions during the COVID-19 crisis. What is this point? Bastiat opened his famous essay “What Is Seen and What Is Not Seen” this way:

In the economic sphere an action, a habit, an institution, or a law engenders not just one effect but a series of effects. Of these effects only the first is immediate; it is revealed simultaneously with its cause; it is seen. The other merely occur successively; they are not seen; we are lucky if we foresee them.

The entire difference between a bad and a good economist is apparent here. A bad relies on the visible effect, while the good one takes account both of the effect one can seeand of those one must foresee.

Bastiat actually comes in handy for all of us when looking at the economic and health costs of this crisis.

First, we are seeing a wide array of economic costs due to the governmental restrictions and shutdowns implemented in response to the virus, including declining economic output and investment, lost jobs, diminished trade, and falling income and consumption. There’s no missing this grim fallout.

But there is, indeed, more. Assorted economists are right to point out that there are unseen costs. Politicians and many in the media refer to trillions of dollars being spent by the federal government to aid individuals, families and businesses – in response to government having shutdown large parts of the economy – as “stimulus.” They see dollars and loans helping certain people and firms. Unseen, though, is the fact that those resources must come from somewhere, that is, being diverted from other endeavors, and resulting in real and substantial costs. Also, unseen are the future costs of this spending, in terms of burdens placed on taxpayers not too far down the road. Those unseen costs promise to be significant and lasting.

But Bastiat’s unseen effects go beyond this as well. For example, at the time of this writing (early morning on May 21), according to the Johns Hopkins Coronavirus Resource Center, global coronavirus cases registered 5.02 million, including 1.55 million in the United States, and worldwide deaths stood at 328,471, and at 93,439 in the U.S.

As tragic as these deaths are, the actual numbers likely are worse. Unseen are a rise in unexpected deaths not assigned to the coronavirus but likely tied to the pandemic by either being undiagnosed coronavirus cases, or dying due to other causes untreated because of the COVID-19 outbreak. (See, for example, a Tampa Bay Times analysis for Florida, and a Wall Street Journal article.)

And then there are the unseen lives saved. Critics of stay-at-home orders, social distancing and even wearing masks like to look at the latest number of deaths and rather callously proclaim that this hasn’t been as bad as was predicted, and therefore, the actions taken have meant little to nothing. In reality, the death toll not only keeps rising – soon to pass 100,000 in the U.S. – but it should be obvious that staying at home, social distancing and other efforts have avoided unseen deaths, that is, it has saved many lives. After all, that was and is the point of such actions. Duh.

The New York Times has reported on work done by researchers at Columbia University that estimates that 36,000 fewer people would have died if social distancing efforts had gone into effect a week earlier in March, and if lockdowns had gone into effect on March 1, some 83 percent of the nation’s deaths could have been avoided. Now, there always are major problems with such modeling, but the directional aspect is undeniable. 

Yes, I’m comfortable in assuming that the number of unseen deaths in the U.S. would have been markedly higher (double or more than double?) without social distancing undertakings. In turn, a strikingly higher number of deaths, of course, would have come with a wide array of additional, unseen economic costs.

Indeed, this is a Bastiat moment, and yes, it is untidy in terms of nailing down exact numbers and estimates, and arguments promise to labor on as to the costs and benefits of what’s been done, and what would have happened under other scenarios. And these kinds of discussions and analyses will need to be done so that we can learn, and be better able to address future pandemics.

But throughout, let’s have compassion and regret for those who have fallen ill and died; let’s deal soberly with the real and brutal economic costs; let’s show some humility in terms of what we know and what we don’t; and let’s assume that, while we disagree, we’re all trying to do what’s best.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcastand the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

The COVID-19 Crisis: Our Crushed Economy

Part I of a Projected Three-Part Series

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – May 15, 2020

Make no mistake, the coronavirus pandemic and resulting government shutdowns of large parts of economy have had devastating effects across our economy, and the impact will not be quickly reversed. In fact, with misguided policymaking after COVID-19 has come under control (hopefully via vaccines and/or therapeutics), our economic ills could be further extended.

It pays to keep in mind that whenever the economy goes seriously off the rails, some kind of government action usually can be identified that either caused the mess or made it worse. In our current situation, the rapid spread of this virus, the threat to the lives of individuals, and the actual resulting deaths had their own negative consequences for the economy, and then governmental efforts – largely necessary though far from perfect (anyone who expects something even close to efficiency from government in anything doesn’t understand government) – have resulted in harsh economic consequences.

This column is not meant as an argument against what the government has done, nor as some kind of support for all that government has implemented. It’s also not meant to align with those arguing irresponsibly for an immediate, mask-less reopening of the economy with little concern, it seems, for ongoing efforts against spreading this virus. What follows is a look at key indicators describing our grim state of economic affairs.

First, real GDP (i.e., inflation-adjusted gross domestic product) in the first quarter plunged by 4.8 percent, with all major categories of economic activity declining dramatically, including consumer spending, business investment and trade. During the post-World-War-II era, there were only seven quarters when the economy declined by larger percentages.

Second, information coming in about the start of the second quarter points to an even larger drop in GDP. For example, retail sales plunged by 16.4 percent in April. That was the biggest monthly decline in a dataset going back to 1992. Industrial production – that is, the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities – tumbled by 11.2 percent in April. That was the largest monthly decline on record in an index that dates back 101 years. The drop in manufacturing production was even larger at 13.7 percent – again, biggest decline on record.

Third, jobs are disappearing at a frightening pace. Initial weekly unemployment claims over the first eight weeks of the COVID-19 crisis tallied up to 36.5 million. The story from the April employment report arguably was even worse. Perhaps most distressing was the fact that the employment-population ratio in April fell to the lowest level ever recorded in a dataset going back to 1948, plummeting from 61.1 percent in February to 60 percent in March, and then to 51.3 percent in April. 

Fourth, entrepreneurship is suffering as well. For example, the number of unincorporated self-employed individuals – an important measure of small business and startup activity – declined in April to its lowest level since January 1980. 

For good measure, the Census Bureau recently reported that business applications for tax IDs – one measure of business formation (though far from complete) – took a dive of 4.5 percent in the first quarter of this year. In addition, high-propensity business applications – which are businesses with a high likelihood to turn into businesses with payrolls – fell by 5.4 percent in April. These measures of entrepreneurial activity promise to fall further in the second quarter of this year.

Indeed, there’s nothing positive going on in the U.S. economy currently. We’re likely to see the steepest decline in economic activity during the second quarter of this year (that is, the current quarter) since the Great Depression.

After reviewing these grim numbers and trends, it’s critical to understand that these aren’t just some cold statistics detached from reality. Instead, they quantify reality. These numbers reflect or communicate real economic hardship for tens of millions of Americans across the nation. At the same time, these numbers do not negate the realities of mounting coronavirus deaths, and the understanding that the number of deaths could have been much worse, and still threaten to get worse. More on that in Part II in this series.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcastand the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #2: Don’t Waste Your Vote, More Star Wars, Picard – Good or Bad?, Coronavirus Divisions, and NFL Draft Observations

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #2: Don’t Waste Your Vote, More Star Wars, Picard – Good or Bad?, Coronavirus Divisions, and NFL Draft Observations – Ray Keating is on a roll in this second episode. First, he wants to know why voting according to your conscience is considered a bad thing? He also gets his sci-fi nerd on with Star Wars and Picard. Keating is annoyed by coronavirus politics, but he also is enjoying the NFL Draft, including what the Jets, Packers and Vikings did in the first round.

Tune in here or click on graphic above.

Ray Keating Launches “PRESS CLUB C Podcast”

Keating Hopes to Engage Listeners Given His Experiences as an Economist, Novelist, Nonfiction Author, Entrepreneur, and Fan of Lots of Things

Long Island, NY – Today, a new podcast – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast – was launched by Ray Keating, who is an economist, columnist, novelist, nonfiction book author, entrepreneur, and former college professor. Keating also hosts the “Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast.”

What does PRESS CLUB C stand for or mean? Keating notes, “Each letter in each word explains the many topics that will be discussed by myself and assorted guests across episodes of the podcast.” Those topics are as follows: 

Politics

Religion (namely, Christian topics)

Economics

Sports

Stories (that is, writing, books, fiction and nonfiction, and author interviews)

Culture (pop culture and otherwise)

Life (the big catch all)

Understanding (lessons in an assortment of areas, including history)

Business and entrepreneurship

Conservative (Keating is a self-described traditional, American, Reagan-esque conservative)

The description for the first episode is: “Episode #1: Conservatism, the Coronavirus Economy, the NFL Draft 2020, and What the Heck is PRESS CLUB C Anyway?" – What the heck is PRESS CLUB C? Ray Keating explains, while also talking self-indulgently about himself and his interests. But he eventually puts aside the navel-gazing, and gets around to talking about some topics. Keating explains what conservatism is, or should be, and reflects upon some key points regarding the coronavirus economy. And then as a sports-starved fan, Ray gets downright emotional thinking about the upcoming NFL Draft 2020, and then winds up ranting about his Minnesota Vikings. Four Super Bowl losses with no wins have been tough on Ray over the years.”

Keating explains: “Given my work and interests, there’s so much to discuss, explore and have fun with, including being an economist, columnist, novelist, nonfiction book author, some kind of podcaster, entrepreneur and former college professor, as well as my assorted interests, like baseball (Reds fan), football (Vikings fan), hockey (Sharks fan), books, movies, television, streaming, writing, comic books, business and entrepreneurship, the Walt Disney Company, history, golf, music, and more! I hope to engage listeners in a host of areas, while not taking myself, at least, too seriously.”

The PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating can be heard on Buzzsprout, at Apple Podcasts, Google Podcasts, and Player FM, among podcast venues.

Keating’s most recent books are Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York,The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, and Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Some of his latest columns and articles can be read at KeatingFiles.com and at DisneyBizJournal.com. 

Contact: Ray Keating

Facebook: www.facebook.com/pressclubc

Twitter: @FreeEnterprise7

www.KeatingFiles.com

www.RayKeatingOnline.com

PRESS CLUB C Podcast with Ray Keating – Episode #1: Conservatism, the Coronavirus Economy, the NFL Draft 2020, and What the Heck is PRESS CLUB C Anyway?

Ray Keating kicks off a new podcast. But what the heck is PRESS CLUB C? 

Keating explains, while also talking self-indulgently about himself and his interests. But he eventually puts aside the navel-gazing, and gets around to talking about some topics. Keating explains what conservatism is, or should be, and reflects upon some key points regarding the coronavirus economy. And then as a sports-starved fan, Ray gets downright emotional thinking about the upcoming NFL Draft 2020, and then winds up ranting about his Minnesota Vikings. Four Super Bowl losses with no wins has been tough on Ray over the years.

Please tune in here or click on the graphic above, and, Yes, tell everyone you know!

Experts and Politicians Get Slapped Down by Oil Markets

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – April 20, 2020

The nice thing about saying stuff on television that doesn’t make much economic sense is that there’s often considerable lag time before the cold slap of economic reality hits. The same goes for politicians’ mistaken utterances on the economy, whether on TV or not. But on rare occasions, economic reality arrives almost immediately.

The peddlers of economic ignorance usually can escape with their reputations largely intact because by the time their wrongheadedness becomes clear, everyone has moved on to another topic. Indeed, politics, the media and the economics profession are over-populated by experts who consistently get their economics wrong, yet their views are still sought. Go figure.

Apparently, though, the oil markets were having none of this, as the price of oil descended into uncharted territory on Monday (April 20). The May crude oil futures price closed at $18.27 a barrel on Friday (April 17), but ended Monday’s session at negative $37.63. In effect, that would mean that oil sellers would have to pay buyers to take oil off their hands. Wow.

That’s endlessly fascinating for traders and economists alike. But what’s kind of humorous is how much time CNBC, for example, spent on the need for Russia and Saudi Arabia, along with the United States and Mexico in the mix, to agree to oil production cuts earlier this month. The deal was close to being done as oil markets were closing on Thursday, April 9, and then the “historic” and “unprecedented” deal was finalized on Sunday, April 12. 

CNBC reported on its website:

“This is at least a temporary relief for the energy industry and for the global economy,” Rystad Energy’s head of analysis Per Magnus Nysveen told CNBC in an email. “Even though the production cuts are smaller than what the market needed and only postpone the stock building constraints problem, the worst is for now avoided.”

CNBC also highlighted President Trump’s tweet: “The big Oil Deal with OPEC Plus is done. This will save hundreds of thousands of energy jobs in the United States. I would like to thank and congratulate President Putin of Russia and King Salman of Saudi Arabia. I just spoke to them from the Oval Office. Great deal for all!”

And on April 15, CNBC interviewed U.S. Energy Secretary Dan Brouillette. He said, “Think about what would have happened in the alternative had there been instead of a cut of 10 million on the part of OPEC and OPEC+, what if that number had been zero, what would we be looking at today suggests that it’s probably something much lower than where we are. And I think we may be at a floor. I think the intent of this conversation with OPEC and the rest of the G-20 countries is simply to do exactly that, to mitigate.”

The “Whoops” moments clearly have been stacking up.

I often have CNBC on in the background in my office, and as I shook my head at all of the time being spent on this deal, one anchor – Kelly Evans – finally put forth a relevant question. She basically asked: If this deal is happening, why does the price of oil keep falling?

Well, there you go. The obvious question with an obvious answer.

The price of oil has been declining since late February ($53.38 a barrel on February 21), and continued through and after the “historic” production deal ($22.41 on April 13 and, again, $18.27 on April 17), and went into freefall on April 20 because of the coronavirus and governmental responses that have crushed the economy, drying up oil demand and creating enormous uncertainty looking ahead as to when the U.S. and the rest of the world might get back on a growth track.

Anyone with minimal knowledge of how supply and demand works understood that the Russia-Saudi-U.S. production deal meant nothing. Markets clearly were dictating that oil production would have to decline, since there was little demand and nowhere for production to go. Duh.

But what the heck. Even though markets taught a quick, harsh lesson in economics this time around, few are likely to pay much attention, and misguided views on economics and markets will still be sought, spouted off, and forgotten.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. Keating also is a novelist. His latest novels are  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^th book in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #60: 5 Policy Promises Needed for Post-Coronavirus Economy

Ray Keating considers what the economy will need once we have the coronavirus at a manageable stage in terms of economic policymaking.

Tune in here, or click the graphic above.

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #59: How Bad is the Coronavirus Economy?

Ray Keating answers the question: Just how bad is the coronavirus economy?

Tune in here, or click the graphic above.

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #58: Re-Open the Economy Right Now? No Matter the Costs? Really?

Ray Keating counters irresponsible calls to re-open the economy right now – no matter the costs, even in terms of lives lost – with some help from Adam Smith, the father of modern-day, free-market economics.

Tune in here or click on the graphic above. 

This Economist’s 4 Top Coronavirus Concerns

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 31, 2020

Coronavirus concerns continue to mount in terms of illnesses, deaths, and the economy. And unfortunately, it promises to get much worse, before it gets better.

As for those who have been touting this as not a big deal – you know, saying it’s not as bad as the flu, and/or asserting that U.S. businesses and the economy will get back to work in a couple of weeks – they’ve proven to be more grossly ill-informed than the rest of us who are trying to navigate these uncharted waters.

Some of the politics have reached new depths of, well, stupidity – and that’s saying something. It’s been sad to see so many people peddling the idea that the warnings about the coronavirus had nothing to do with science and the track record of the virus in other nations, but instead, claimed that it was some kind of political conspiracy. By the way, one almost has to admire the steadfastness among some of them, as they continue to make such bizarre claims even as the cases mount in the United States. (Geez, just how deep does this conspiracy run?)

Looking ahead, here are my 4 top concerns as an economist and a human being:

1) The top concern and priority – and the reason that so much of the economy has been shut down – remains working to limit and stop the spread of the coronavirus, and its impact in terms of those infected, the numbers needing hospitalization, and of course, the tragic deaths. If you’re not operating from that as a first principle, then there’s something wrong with you. Unfortunately, even as the virus continues to spread in the U.S., an assortment of commentators callously emphasize the need for businesses to re-open now and for people to get back to work immediately, with some even questioning why state and local government officials have taken the actions they have. Yes, there are concerns about what the government is doing, but those are legitimate worries over the longer haul – as I will note in a moment – not in terms of the largely necessary steps that have been taken so far in the name of saving lives.

2) As the coronavirus continues to spread across the globe, the broader move into developing countries could turn into something far worse than what’s been seen in assorted developed nations, given how weak – or nearly nonexistent – health care systems and services are in those countries. The work for all of us will not stop when matters are brought down to manageable levels in the U.S.

3) The immediate drop in the U.S. economy promises to be historic. The government’s call to shut down large swathes of economic activity was the right one, and the massive aid bill (CARES Act) that was passed by Congress and signed into law by President Trump was necessary (though certainly not everything in it was needed or even related to what’s going on) to limit some of the short-term pain. But the downturn in the economy that started in March promises to be historic, and likely will last at least into the third quarter of this year – no matter the short-run aid doled out by the government.

4) The same short-run aid provided by government will serve as a longer run negative for the economy. Anytime government drains resources from the private sector (as is the case with this massive federal package), whether via borrowing or taxes, it will serve as an economic negative. So, while the CARES Act will help many in the short run (assuming government executes matters quickly – a big assumption), the same measure promises to restrain on any economic recovery. 

And the economic recovery/expansion that hopefully starts late this year or early next will be further hampered if the current expansion of government controls are not rolled back fully. The surest path to a slow recovery – or even a double-dip recession – would involve politicians feeling empowered to spend, regulate, borrow and tax more, along with the Fed continuing to believe in its nonexistent ability to manage the economy. That’s a recipe for long-run economic decline. Indeed, this very phenomenon coming out of the late-2007-to-mid-2009 recession meant that the subsequent recovery/expansion period turned out to be grossly under-performing in terms of economic growth.

Our focus currently needs to be on saving lives, and when things are under control at home, helping those in other countries. This is what the United States does. That’s all vital from a love-our-fellow-man perspective, as well as, secondarily so, an economic viewpoint. Looking a bit further down the road, our humanitarian and economic concerns further coalesce in that we need government to then step back, and allow the private sector to invest, recover and grow, and trade to flourish – thereby creating businesses and jobs, driving up incomes, and creating the wealth that will allow us to aid others around the world and be better prepared for future crises.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York– signed books or for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

The Realities of the Coronavirus Economy

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 25, 2020

Just in case any doubts lingered about government’s ability to destroy business and economic activity, while at the same time being completely incapable of ginning up the economy, the coronavirus should wipe them away.

Indeed, most slowdowns, recessions and depressions are about government doing something stupid, and then trying to fix the problem with the wrong responses.

What’s different with the government’s response to the spreading coronavirus is that elected officials chose to shut down large chunks of the economy. That is, rather than creating a recession by mistake, this time, it was done on purpose. And quite frankly, in terms of the severe health care risks, there’s not much else that government could do under the circumstances.

But that doesn’t mean that there have not been and will not be brutal costs involved with this government-ordered recession. Consider that Goldman Sachs has predicted that the U.S. economy will shrink by 24 percent in the second quarter of this year, after a decline of 6 percent in the first quarter. If this turns out to be the result, that’s never happened before. On the brighter side (really?), Goldman’s economists look for growth to bounce back to 12 percent in the third quarter and 10 percent in the fourth.

Responses to the current state of affairs vary widely. Let’s consider two groups. Voices from Group 1 proclaim that the government’s actions went too far, and the economy needs to be quickly “re-opened.” And Group 2 awaits the passage and signing into law of some kind of salvation via a massive federal government aid package (likely to happen today, or the next day or two). This package will tally up to more than $2 trillion. Basically, both are wrong.

The problem with Group 1 is that they downplay the harsh realities of the coronavirus, including the potential deaths of hundreds of thousands of Americans if this is not stomped down. The coronavirus must be made manageable, and then the restrictions on business and individuals can be lifted. 

As for Group 2 and a massive government aid package, a few points must be considered. First, in the short run, it makes sense for government to step up to help people thrown out of work, and businesses torpedoed and sank by government shutting down the economy on purpose. And we all hope that government somehow overcomes its inherent waste and inefficiencies to provide some much-needed assistance. But no one should be surprised by delays, foul ups and special-interests grabbing resources – that’s government.

Second, the current situation doesn’t mean we can wish away economic reality. Government aid dollars do not appear magically out of thin air. Instead, they are drained from the private sector. So, it must be noted that this massive aid package over the longer haul will serve to inflict additional damage on our economy. The best case scenario for this aid effort is that it manages to alleviate a chunk of the short-run severity, while we must recognize the added woes it will bring over the longer run.

There is no clear way to deal with the coronavirus in terms of its effects on jobs, businesses and the economy. We’re kind of feeling our way step by step each day, and for the most part, up until now, it’s hard to disagree with most of the actions taken. In the coming months, it will be about limiting the downside – again, even while recognizing that the damage promises to be deep and severe. 

As for the economy snapping back, there should be some of that late this year and into 2021. But the coronavirus itself and the coronavirus economy will not just go away with a flip of the switch. The effects promise to linger some, with a longer road to full recovery than perhaps many are expecting right now. And that recovery depends upon government doing the right thing and not making matters worse – always a dicey proposition.

The worst case scenario would be extending government interference in the economy due to the coronavirus emergency into the post-coronavirus period. Once we’ve reached that point where the virus is being managed properly, government needs to quickly step back and shrink, so that entrepreneurs, businesses, investors and workers are free to get back to innovating, working, investing, and growing businesses, the economy, income and jobs.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.