Biden Looking to Repeat Obama’s Mistakes on the Economy

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – December 13, 2020

 

Barack Obama was dealt a bad hand on the economy – to say the least – when he was elected in 2008. Unfortunately, his policy agenda proceeded to make matters worse, deepening the Great Recession and undermining the subsequent recovery. Obama’s vice president and now-President-elect Joe Biden didn’t learn from Obama’s errors, and apparently is ready to repeat the mistakes of recent history. 

Similar to Obama, Biden has been dealt an extremely bad hand on the economy, i.e., the pandemic, and the resulting troubles in terms of illnesses, deaths and economic woes. But again, looking ahead, Biden’s policy agenda, if implemented, would make matters worse.

 

No matter what one’s view of the government’s COVID-19-related shutdowns and aid efforts might be, the fact is that on the other side of this pandemic, the U.S. faces enormous economic challenges. Those include restarting economic growth, and dealing with the costs of a vast expansion in government spending and debt. 

 

The fact is that the consequences of this explosion in government can only be dealt with constructively in an environment of strong economic growth. On the policy front, that means a tax, regulatory and trade agenda that strengthens the foundation for economic growth, at the same time as government spending is being reined in and capped.

 

President Obama’s agenda of more government spending, higher taxes, and increased regulation wound up increasing the costs of and creating disincentives for entrepreneurship and private investment. In turn, the subsequent economy underperformed, with economic growth running at about half of what it should be during period periods of recovery and expansion.

 

And now we see President-elect Biden likewise presenting an agenda of expanded government, higher taxes, and increased taxes. For example, Biden’s tax plan features higher individual income, payroll and capital gains tax rates on upper-income earners, that is, on entrepreneurs and investors, and a higher corporate income tax rate. 

 

And then there’s Biden’s call for increased regulation – in particular, more government mandates in labor markets – and a spending agenda chock full of new programs and spending plans. 

 

Biden either fails to understand basic economics, or chooses politics over economics (or both). Economic common sense makes clear that raising costs, reducing potential returns, and diminishing incentives for starting up, expanding and investing in businesses will undermine economic, income and employment growth.

 

Reducing resources and incentives for entrepreneurship and investing in new businesses always rates as bad policy. But given the sweeping destruction of small businesses during this pandemic, and how vital small businesses are to growth, innovation and job creation, it’s even more dangerous, troubling and absurd right now.

 

There’s also a good chance that a Biden administration would continue with at least parts of the worst aspect of the Trump economic agenda, i.e., trade protectionism. After all, it’s important to keep in mind that prior to Trump, the Democrats ranked as the anti-free-trade, pro-protectionism party. The only real difference is that the Democrats tend to dress up protectionism in prettier language than Trump (not exactly hard to do). And the earliest, post-election signals are not good, as President-elect Biden has hesitated on talking about rolling back Trump’s destructive anti-trade measures, and even noted that he might keep the tariffs around that American businesses and consumers are paying on Chinese imports. 

 

Keep in mind that the 2008 presidential campaign of Barack Obama and Joe Biden was strikingly similar in tone on trade to the Trump agenda. Once in office, Obama stepped back from his protectionist rhetoric, but Trump moved aggressively in a protectionist direction. The Trump trade agenda has taken a toll on U.S. economic growth, and if Biden does not turn the U.S. in a free trade direction, then trade policy will continue to serve as another drag on economic recovery.

 

The economic road ahead promises to be rough. It will be made worse or better by the policies implemented. The U.S. needs a pro-growth agenda of tax and regulatory relief, free trade, and spending reduction and then restraint. However, President-elect Biden is focused on an anti-growth agenda of increased tax and regulatory burdens, more government spending, and at best, a foggy future on trade. 

 

Don’t be surprised if the post-pandemic economic recovery badly underperforms under Biden, just as was the case under Obama.

 

__________

 

Recent pieces by Ray Keating…

 

“Rebuilding Conservatism #2: Free Trade Rocks and Protectionism Sucks”

 

“Rebuilding Conservatism #1: What is Conservatism?”

 

“Bing Crosby – Christmas Crooner, Top Entertainer, Top Entrepreneur”

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  His new book Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel is the 13th thriller/mystery in the Pastor Stephen Grant series. Get the paperback or Kindle edition at Amazon, or signed books at www.raykeatingonline.com. 

 

The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

You also can order his book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. 

 

One of the best ways to enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast 

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at  www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 12, 2020

 

Is Donald Trump managing to turn Texas from a solid Red State (i.e., Republican) to a Purple State (a toss-up state)? If so, that would have earth-shaking consequences for American presidential politics.

Consider that the last time Texas favored a Democrat over the Republican candidate in a presidential contest was 44 years ago in 1976. Texas has gone Republican in every race since.

 

And the margins of victory generally have been pretty comfortable. The exceptions were in two losing efforts by Republicans, with Texan Ross Perot factoring into the equation. George H.W. Bush earned only 40.6 percent of the Texas vote in 1992, with Bill Clinton getting 37.1 percent and Ross Perot 22 percent. In the next election (1996), Bob Dole received 48.8 percent to Clinton’s 43.8 percent and Perot at 6.8 percent.

 

Republicans re-established solid wins in the next four elections. In 2000, George W. Bush took 59.3 percent in his home state versus Al Gore’s 38 percent, and in 2004, it was Bush 61.1 percent to John Kerry’s 38.2 percent. And then even in losing national efforts, Republicans did well in Texas in 2008 and 2012, with John McCain beating Barack Obama 55.5 percent to 43.7 percent, and Mitt Romney defeating Obama 57.2 percent to 41.4 percent. 

 

And then we come to 2016. Donald Trump won Texas, but only with 52.1 percent of the vote. So, Trump topped the percentages earned by Bush 41 and Dole in losing efforts in 1992 and 1996, respectively. But Trump managed the lowest tally in Texas for a Republican presidential winner since Herbert Hoover in 1928.

 

However, Trump’s 2016 Texas win was still quite comfortable given that Hillary Clinton only earned 43.1 percent of the state vote.

 

And now we’re only three weeks away from Election Day 2020, and President Trump and his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, are in a dead heat in Texas, according to the polls.

 

Of the Texas October polls, one has Trump up by 7 percentage points and another up by 5 points. That’s what one would expect for a Republican in Texas. However, another poll has Biden up by 2 percentage points, and another has the Democrat up by one point. And two other polls put the two candidates even.

 

Win or lose, Biden seems on track, at least at this point in time, to earn the largest percentage vote in Texas for any Democrat since Jimmy Carter won the state in 1976.

 

Suddenly, Texas is competitive. That’s deeply troubling news for Republicans. After all, of the four most populous states, two are solid Blue (Democrat), i.e., California and New York, and one, Florida, has gone from leaning Republican to being a Purple State.

 

We’ll have a somewhat clearer picture of what’s happening in Texas after this year’s election. But even then, there will be the question as to whether a poor showing, perhaps even a loss, by Trump in Texas might be a short-term Trump effect or something more lasting for the GOP. And if Texas does in fact go Purple, that would mean that there would be no reliable Red States among at least the top dozen populous states. For Republicans, that would be a big “Yikes!”

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

 

“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”

 

“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”

 

“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Review of Behind Enemy Lines

by Self-Publishing Review, ★★★★

The Keating Files – June 8, 2020

The journalistic side of Ray Keating’s writing comes to the fore in Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left Wing New York. Boasting a traditional conservative voice that is measured, self-aware, confident, and persuasive, Keating’s arguments are original and thought-provoking, while many of the ideas explored in this book are surprisingly nuanced.

As a journalist, fiction writer, and general observer of life, Keating has written more than 8,000 columns and pieces over the past thirty years, remaining steadily in the lane of idyllic conservatism – family, God, and country matter above most else. Having read many of Keating’s Pastor Grant novels, the conservative bent to much of this book’s arguments is unsurprising. His iconic protagonist is a gun-toting, Constitution-defending, God-fearing vigilante hero, an appealing figure for a steadfast conservative operating in a bastion of liberal progressivism like New York.

Ranging from lauding praise on Margaret Thatcher and Ronald Reagan to questioning Obama’s ultimate motives and decision-making ability, these opinion pieces are anything but impartial, but they are also well-structured and level-headed. Criticisms of taxpayers picking up the NASA tab, scathing reviews of governmental function (regardless of party leadership), and discussions of the quiet titan of Christianity within American politics are just a few of the subjects touched on in this unexpectedly riveting collection.

Keating’s journalistic style is similarly fearless to his fiction writing, unafraid to dabble in any realm and apply his firmly held beliefs into peaceful debate with those who would disagree. Unlike so much other conservative writing in recent years, especially pro-Trump partiality, Keating has a frank and honest voice that appears to be morally uncompromised. He makes it clear that while his economic, social, and geopolitical opinions may fall on the conservative spectrum, his principles are still very much in place...

Read the rest of this review here...

State of Liberalism in 2020: Still Advancing, Still Incoherent

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 27, 2020

What is it about liberalism (that is, modern-day, not classical, liberalism) that it continues to advance on the policy front, even though it’s intellectually incoherent?

I asked pretty much the same question when I wrote an assessment of liberalism twenty years ago. At that time, I pointed out that most liberal thinkers – whether in academia, or penning essays – chose to ignore serious inquiry in favor of shilling for Democrats and appealing almost purely to emotion.

That wasn’t always the case, but it’s hard to seriously argue otherwise in terms of where liberalism stands today. 

Think about it for just a moment. What serves as the foundation for many prominent positions widely accepted on the Left, such as partial-birth abortion; Supreme Court justices free to redefine the U.S. Constitution as they see fit; ever-expansive government without concern about how higher taxes, for example, might affect the economy; the growing acceptance of and advocacy for socialism even though it is undermined by economic common sense and history; treating government regulation as costless; blind acceptance of nearly everything served up by environmental activists; opposition to free trade; buttressing the spread of group victimhood with little regard for personal responsibility; participating in a naïve revision of history whereby anyone or any entity in the past that undertook anything that isn’t seen as pure in terms of 2020 left-wing preferences must be entirely condemned (with apologies and compensation sought out, somehow); perpetuating Marxist drivel regarding workers being exploited by and pitted against business owners; establishing a belief system, to the extent it might exist, that transforms Christianity, for example, into nothing more than a vehicle for “social justice;” and supplanting exploration of right, wrong and truth with a lazy relativism?

There really are four possible answers that I can think of in terms of what undergirds this shallow hodge-podge. The first is that true liberal thinkers have become nearly extinct; replaced by left-wing writers, professors and think tanks that simply take their cues from the special interests that dominate the Democratic Party, such as environmentalists, radical feminists, and so on. Political talking points have replaced thoughtful analysis.

The second possibility is that liberal “thinkers” have become far more radicalized, but continue to serve as the intellectual foundation, such as it is, of the Democratic Party. 

Third, this kind of liberalism is rooted in feelings and emotions, rather than serious thought and reflection, and therefore, fits our times quite neatly. Indeed, this seems to me to be the most powerful factor in play in terms of the current state of liberalism. While liberalism has been moving down this feelings/emotions track for quite some time – in fact, for decades – it has reached a level that it now almost completely dominates the Left.

There’s also the question of how much liberalism led to the spread of a feelings-over-thinking culture, and/or how such a culture impacted liberalism.

Either way, liberals have moved from trying to think through ideas, philosophies and policies in a quest for the best answer or (dare I write it?) the truth (albeit, though, often coming up with the wrong answers), to trying to formulate arguments that support an increasing preference for feelings over truth, thinking and analysis.

Liberalism today boils down to asking: How do you feel about this or that? And then liberal professors, thinkers and writers work to dress up or legitimize those feelings for more “intellectual” consumption. Those feelings also are or become a political movement that often finds a home in the Democratic Party, and is manifested in people like President Barack Obama and all of the Democratic presidential contenders who were in the 2020 race.

Coherent? No. Politically effective? It’s hard to argue with in terms of the results.

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York– signed booksor for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

The State of the Democrats in 2020: The Journey Left Accelerates

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 19, 2020

Where do our major political parties and philosophies stand right now, and as we look ahead not just to presidential and congressional elections this November but beyond?

Just after the 2000 election, when we were all waiting around for the final tally of a disputed presidential election – remember Bush vs. Gore – I took the opportunity to evaluate the state of our two major political parties, and the major movements or sets of ideas that undergirded much of the nation’s politics, i.e., conservatism and modern-day liberalism. It was one of those turn-of-the-century opportunities. 

And now, two decades later (wow – 20 years!?), how do things look for the Democrats, the Republicans, liberalism and conservatism? This first essay evaluates the Democrats.

In 2000, I bemoaned that the state of our body politic had “wilted.” I argued that “the size of government combined with the corruption of the Democratic Party during the reign of President Bill Clinton ... soiled the public square,” including “the continuing tragic ethical decline of the Democratic Party.” The Dems had “tacitly adopted the sordid governing philosophy of the ends justifying the means.” That’s still the case, but things have gotten worse.

But the mess back then wasn’t just about Clinton. It had been building up as the Democrats, for example, had enshrined judicial activism as a glorious cause, that is, in order to get around what was actually – and for them inconveniently – written and intended by the U.S. Constitution. Democrats also perfected the political spin machine that could manufacture crises in order to advance the policies they preferred, namely, the expansion of government into all realms of life – the dream of Progressives in the Democratic Party since Woodrow Wilson. Again, the ends justify the means (more on this, by the way, for the Republicans in the upcoming essay on the GOP).

Little of this has changed over the past 20 years, except that the Democrats’ policy agenda has moved much further to the Left. For example, any semblance of social conservatism that might have existed among Democrats in 2000 – such as a few pro-life elected officials here and there – has been stomped out. 

And while Democrats in 2000 were annoyed at being called “socialists,” today, a significant chunk of the party, led by presidential candidate and U.S. Senator Bernie Sanders, as well as U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, aka AOC, embrace the label – thereby exhibiting a breathtaking expansion of economic ignorance within the party. Indeed, as bad as the Democrats had been on economic issues post-John F. Kennedy, the steep descent into economic illiteracy has been rather stunning in recent times.

The notion that the U.S. could have a Democratic president today who would agree to a capital gains tax cut, welfare reform, and making NAFTA a reality – as President Bill Clinton did – is nearly unimaginable. In fact, could 1992, 1996 or 2000 Bill Clinton even have a shot at the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination today? Doubtful.

For good measure, the radical environmental movement’s reach has vastly expanded in the Democratic Party to the point that a climate agenda imposing drastic costs on the U.S. economy and calling for government to effectively reshape the entire energy industry has become the accepted political line among Democrats.

In looking at causes, one must recognize that Barack Obama ran and governed as the most liberal president the nation has ever had, given that his Leftism cut across nearly all issues, as opposed to someone like Franklin Delano Roosevelt, who also was a hardline Leftist but had issues where he was still rather centrist, like on foreign affairs, and other social issues around today that weren’t even thought of by most people.

So, this year, we have Obama’s vice president, Joe Biden, pitching himself as the more moderate among Democratic presidential candidates – and given that Sanders is the only one remaining, Biden is more moderate – but at the same time, Biden arguably is running to the left of Obama.

The Democratic Party over the past twenty years has moved so far to the Left – that is, it has become so radicalized – that the party’s 2016 presidential candidate, Hillary Clinton, managed to lose to Donald Trump (and yes, she also was highly unlikeable, but so was Trump), and the same thing could happen in 2020. 

Looking ahead, can the Democrats pull back from this journey to the far Left? Well, keep in mind that this is the direction the party has been going at least since 1968, and given who the party’s activists and donors are, it’s hard to imagine a return to anything even close to where the party was under John F. Kennedy, or even Jimmy Carter or Bill Clinton. For example, recall that the deregulatory movement that benefited the U.S. economy so enormously during Ronald Reagan’s 1980s actually got started during Carter’s presidency. But especially given the hyper-regulation of the Obama years, any whiff of talk that doesn’t involve increased regulation is sure to lead to banishment from the 21^stcentury Democrats. 

Indeed, even as the Democrats seem to have coalesced this year around Biden, and moved away from Sanders, in an effort to defeat Trump, it has been the uniqueness of Donald Trump that drove this momentary glimpse of something resembling political sanity (as well as more people actually paying attention to crazy stuff that Sanders has done and said over the years). But as already noted, it’s not like Biden is running on anything close to being middle of the road. He offers a left-wing agenda – such as big tax increases, unbridled liberalism on all social issues, more and more regulation, extremism on the environment, and so on – in the hopes that his history and style as trusty, old Uncle Joe will attract, and fool, enough voters to send Trump packing. 

This Biden strategy in no way challenges the Democrats’ increasing liberalism. Indeed, barring some political miracle, the Democrats’ leftward journey will continue unabated for the foreseeable future.

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York – signed booksor for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.