For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...

Thursday, August 13, 2020

Biden Picks Harris: Will It Matter on Election Night?

by Ray Keating
The Keating Files – August 13, 2020

Former Vice President Joe Biden, the Democratic candidate for president, has chosen U.S. Senator Kamala Harris from California as his vice presidential running mate. Will it make a difference on Election Night, November 3? That’s highly unlikely.


Make no mistake, seemingly everyone in and covering politics has been talking about Biden’s choosing Harris. Democrats are largely pleased, and making the case for Harris. Republicans naturally stand in opposition, though their arguments against her are contradictory (for example, is she too tough on crime or too soft?). The media is dedicating all kinds of attention. 

Of course, I get it. This happens whenever VP candidates are announced.

Nonetheless, pointing out that the VP pick ultimately doesn’t matter – or matters very little – isn’t a statement for or against Kamala Harris per se. Vice President Mike Pence doesn’t matter either. It’s just a political fact. Elections are not decided by who is running to be vice president. People vote for, or against, who is running for president. It’s about the top of the ticket.

Research over the years on the impact of vice presidential running mates reveals next to nothing in terms of a clear, substantive impact. Assorted studies indicate that a very small positive effect on voting in the VP candidate’s home state might exist. Well, I don’t think Biden is at risk of losing California.

Some argue that there can be an ideological factor with the number two pick – the idea of balancing the ticket philosophically to gain votes. One can argue that was at least part of the reason for VP picks by Ronald Reagan in 1980, Mike Dukakis in 1988, Bob Dole in 1996, Al Gore in 2000, John McCain in 2008 and Mitt Romney in 2012. Reagan was the only in this group to win, and no one seriously asserts that his running mate, George H.W. Bush, had anything to do with that victory. Besides, this year, it’s hard to see any serious ideological differences between Biden and Harris.

As for picking a woman as the VP candidate, Geraldine Ferraro didn’t help Walter Mondale in 1984, nor did Sarah Palin make a difference for John McCain in 2008.

Two political scientists, Christopher J. Devine and Kyle C. Kopko, assert that the VP choice matters but for a different reason. They say, “Our research shows running mates matter, above all else, by shaping how voters view the presidential candidate who selects them. Running mates indirectly influence voter choice by changing perceptions of the presidential candidate — which, in turn, changes votes.” Well, okay, but that seems a bit amorphous, to say the least. After all, voter perceptions of candidates are influenced by myriad factors.

Would McCain really have been elected if he hadn’t picked Palin, who was perceived as a poor choice (and was), and would Obama truly have suffered by going in a different direction than Biden? No.

Biden made history by picking Harris, who is the first black and Asian candidate on a major party ticket. Putting aside her politics, Harris’s story is compelling. But will it matter in the end as to how this year’s presidential election will turn out? Again, that’s highly – and I mean highly – unlikely.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Keating also is a novelist. His latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12th  book in the series. Big sale on signed books and sets at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/book-of-the-month.

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

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