by Ray Keating
Just how bad could it get for the Republican Party in
November if Donald Trump winds up being the GOP nominee, as is the most likely
outcome currently?
This is not an idle question. After all, Trump has
astoundingly bad numbers in terms of his favorable-unfavorable
ratings. Indeed, his unfavorables run at about two-thirds. That’s simply
unheard of. Any candidate with unfavorable or disapproval ratings hitting 50
percent is pretty much assured of losing. So, if Trump becomes the GOP nominee,
and anything close to these unfavorables persist, the question is not will Trump
lose, but how bad will he lose.
Of course, Hillary Clinton also possesses poor favorable-unfavorable
ratings, with her unfavorables running at about 54 percent.
Indeed, a Trump-Clinton contest would have two significantly
unpopular candidates facing off. Based on these numbers, neither should win.
But someone has to, right?
At least at this point in time, Trump’s woes are far more
significant than Clinton’s, especially given the significant share of
Republicans who would be dissatisfied – 48 percent according to an ABC/Washington
Post poll – with Trump as the party’s candidate.
As a result, even with all of her problems, Mrs. Clinton
could wind up with the best showing of any Democratic presidential candidate
since Lyndon B. Johnson trounced Barry Goldwater in 1964.
Consider that in the post-World War II era, only three
Democratic candidates for president managed to gain at least 50% of the vote –
Barack Obama did it in 2008 at 52.9% and in 2012 at 51%, Jimmy Carter in 1976
at 50.1%, and LBJ in 1964 at 61.1 percent. The other victorious Democrats
failed to hit 50% -- Truman in 1948 at 49.6%, Kennedy in 1960 at 49.7%, and
Bill Clinton in 1992 at 43% and in 1996 at 49.2%.
It is bizarre, yet at the same time, given Trump’s negatives,
not difficult to envision Hillary Clinton topping 55% of the vote, especially
given the very real possibility that many conservative Republican voters could
simply stay home and not vote. And the negative fallout for the GOP would then
be felt down the line in terms of lost U.S. Senate, state and local races.
It pays to recall that there was at least a purpose to
Goldwater’s big loss in 1964. That is, it was the dawn of the conservative
movement within the GOP, and it eventually led to Ronald Reagan becoming
president. In that sense, Goldwater’s loss ultimately was a party building
positive for Republicans. Donald Trump is the exact opposite, that is, he is an
unprincipled, populist force that promises to undermine the GOP, with a good
chance of sending the Republicans into a political wilderness.
______________
Mr. Keating is an economist
and novelist who writes on a wide range of topics. His Pastor Stephen Grant
novels have received considerable acclaim, including The River: A Pastor
Stephen Grant Novel being a finalist for KFUO radio’s Book of the Year 2014,
and Murderer’s Row: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel winning for Book of the Year
2015.
The Pastor Stephen
Grant Novels are available at Amazon…
No comments:
Post a Comment