For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...

Friday, March 4, 2016

Election Depression: Why Does This Election Get Me So Down?

by Ray Keating

I’ve voted in and written about some ugly presidential elections over the years, but this one, at least so far, has really got me down.

But why? After all, there was the grim 1992 election, after President George H.W. Bush, a Republican, broke his campaign pledge and signed a huge tax increase. Four years later, Bob Dole at the top of the GOP ticket was anything but inspiring, to be generous. And then there was the 2008 election when people chose to ignore what Barack Obama actually proposed, in favor of seeing whatever they wanted in the man. Then there was Mitt Romney, who specialized in flip-flopping on issues and as governor of Massachusetts provided the forerunner to ObamaCare, as the Republican candidate in 2012 against the incumbent Obama.

Geez, that’s a lot to be down about, and don’t get me started on elections in my left-wing home state of New York.

For good measure, I am not one of those good government dreamers, either. My expectations in terms of politics and government are low, based on history, my own experience, as well as my understanding of economics. And hence, I favor limited government.

Nonetheless, the 2016 presidential contest has managed to push me into an election depression.

A big part of this is Donald Trump, of course. In the year when Republicans looked like they would have an impressive slate of candidates to battle it out, with a conservative emerging to beat Hillary Clinton and undo some of the enormous damage inflicted by Mr. Obama, the GOP frontrunner is quite different. Trump has flip-flopped on so many issues – including abortion, taxes, and gun control – that he makes Romney look principled, particularly given the Donald’s donations to a wide range of political Lefties over the years, including Hillary Clinton.

But there’s even greater and deeply troubling ugliness this year, with much of it, again, emerging from or gaining ground due to Trump.

First, there is a populism trying to disguise itself as conservatism. Many voters – along with a few “conservative” radio hosts – apparently are making choices this year based on unthinking fear and anger, and that provides fertile ground for populism, where the establishment, elites, Wall Street, banks, immigrants and international trade, for example, are ginned up as enemies. Never mind what President Obama actually has done. While true conservatism understands process of economic growth, populists see the economy as a zero-sum game, whereby if one person or group gains then someone else must lose. But in a free enterprise system, innovation, hard work, entrepreneurship, competition, and investment in service of consumers drive economic, income, and job growth forward. Populism dangerously ignores how the economy actually works, and gives birth to a wide range of other ills.

Second, protectionism is on the march, supported by both Democrats in the race – Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders – along with GOP frontrunner Trump. Free trade expands opportunities for U.S. entrepreneurs, businesses and workers by removing governmental costs and barriers to doing business across borders. Nonetheless, Trump, Clinton and Sanders spout off support for protectionism, that is, increased tariffs and other restrictions on trade. Unfortunately, increasing costs and raising the likelihood of trade wars never end well for U.S. businesses and workers, as the Great Depression, which was kicked off by a trade war resulting from the U.S. Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act, made clear.

Third, along with protectionism, a harsh anti-immigration strain has grown out of a lurking nativism and xenophobia. So, we have two Republican candidates – Trump and Ted Cruz – pledging to drag the 11-12 million illegal immigrants out of the nation, apparently failing to consider or ignoring the grim aspects of this, from creating a massive federal police force to the ills created for the economy to the human rights violations. At the same time, nothing is done to fix immigration laws that obviously fail to deal with economic reality and come up short from a national security perspective.

Fourth, socialism is openly and proudly endorsed by one of the Democratic candidates. Of course, Bernie Sanders is a longtime, bewildered, misguided socialist. The problem is how many voters – including younger people – have signed on to Bernie’s socialism, either understanding or not understanding that socialism means having government owning the means of production and thereby running the economy, and depriving individuals of freedom and prosperity.

Fifth, the economic, national security and social issue Leftism advanced by President Obama has gained considerable traction in America at large, and is represented by Hillary Clinton’s campaign. But even given the failure of the Obama years, if Republicans nominate Trump, Mrs. Clinton must be viewed as the favorite to win in November, thereby solidifying and expanding what Obama has wrought. That leaves one wondering if America truly is a center-right nation any longer.

Sixth, serious questions loom about Trump and racism, for example, given his reluctance to condemn David Duke and the KKK, as well as his heated anti-Mexican rhetoric on the immigration issue. This should be abhorrent to any conservative, and yet, there are assorted conservatives who have held their fire on dismissing Trump (or even embraced him), and of course, there are the votes that Trump continues to garner in primaries.

I have to chuckle when some conservatives and Republicans argue that in the case of Trump becoming the Republican nominee, it’s still okay as the election will be about issues, and Clinton fails on the issues. Unfortunately, Obama has made clear that an unabashed, radical Lefty can become president of the United States. And Clinton and the Democrats will make sure that any race involving Donald Trump will be about Donald Trump. Indeed, Trump will ensure that this is not a race about issues, and therefore, will ensure that the policies of Obama will persist and be expanded under President Hillary Clinton.

Populism, protectionism, nativism, socialism, and Trumpism – that’s why this election has got me down … at least so far.

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Mr. Keating is an economist and novelist who writes on a wide range of topics. His Pastor Stephen Grant novels have received considerable acclaim, including The River: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel being a finalist for KFUO radio’s Book of the Year 2014, and Murderer’s Row: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel winning for Book of the Year 2015.

The Pastor Stephen Grant Novels are available at Amazon…



1 comment:

  1. I am truly frightened about this situation and am beginning to wonder if this is part of the end times.

    ReplyDelete