2008, Obama, Trump and 2% Growth

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 11, 2020

Amidst banter over the economy on Fox Business News early this week, reporter Susan Li asked, “What’s wrong with two percent growth?” Well, actually, a heck of a lot.

Now, I’m not picking on Ms. Li, in particular, as many of her colleagues in the financial news business think that two percent real economic growth is just dandy. Indeed, in the political world, it apparently depends on who happens to be sitting in the Oval Office as to whether or not two percent growth is good or bad. For example, Republicans criticized a recovery/expansion period under President Obama in which economic growth averaged 2.2 percent, but Democrats argued it was just great. And now, with the Trump presidency, real growth averaging 2.5 percent is a downright great economy, according to Trump and the GOP.

To put this all in perspective, since 1950, real GDP growth has averaged 3.3 percent, and during economic recovery/expansion periods (that is, factoring out recessions), growth averaged 4.4 percent. So, 2 percent, 2.3 percent or 2.5 percent doesn’t cut it.

Some actually ask: What real difference does this make? 

Well, consider the “Rule of 70.” What is that? Divide 70 by the average annual real rate of growth, and one arrives at the number of years it takes for GDP, income or living standards to double. At 5% annual growth, it takes 14 years for real living standards to double, while at 1%, it would take 70 years. At 2 percent, it takes 35 years for living standards to double, while at 3.3 percent, it’s 21 years. These differences matter, having substantive effects on human beings. 

Last month, Barack Obama tweeted about his signing of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act 11 years earlier, claiming that it paved “the way for more than a decade of economic growth and the longest streak of job creation in American history.” Naturally, President Trump had to respond, “Did you hear the latest con job? President Obama is now trying to take credit for the Economic Boom taking place under the Trump Administration. He had the WEAKEST recovery since the Great Depression, despite Zero Fed Rate & MASSIVE quantitative easing. NOW, best jobs numbers ever.”

And on it goes. Quite frankly, neither of these guys should be all that excited about the economy of the past 11-plus years in which they resided in the White House. 

The December 2007 to mid-2009 recession still matters, in a certain sense. Again, in terms of the key economic number, real GDP growth from 1950 to 2007 averaged 3.6 percent. From 2008 to the end of 2019, growth averaged a mere 1.7 percent, that is, less than half of where we should be.

To further drive home the problem, let’s focus on the full years during this current economic recovery/expansion period, that is, from 2010 to 2019. If the U.S. economy had grown at an average rate of 4 percent (not even at the 4.4 percent historical norm), then the 2019 economy (measured by real GDP) would have been $3.5 trillion larger in 2012 dollars than it actually was. That’s $3.5 trillion in real lost output!

Indeed, 2008 matters. The credit meltdown and falling into what often is referred to as the Great Recession left a deep mark. Some lost faith in free enterprise. Others came to fear trade and immigration. Still others came to see government as some kind of savior. In reality, the lesson from the 2008 economic mess and its aftermath should be the gross failure of government. 

For example, an aggressive “affordable housing” regulatory and spending agenda incentivized bad loans and laid the foundation for the housing/mortgage mess. Government bailouts, stimulus efforts and loose money failed to revive strong economic growth. We should have snapped back from that deep recession, but we didn’t. Increased taxes and regulations made matters worse, and played key roles in a poor recovery. And the U.S., under Obama, moved to the global sidelines in terms of international trade, and then, under Trump, moved aggressively in a protectionist direction. That hasn’t worked out, with U.S. businesses facing increased costs, fewer opportunities and reduced incentives for investment, and trade paring back economic growth, rather than feeding it as had been the case for most of the post-World War II period.

The tax and regulatory relief achieved so far under the Trump administration has been a plus, but it has not been enough given what happened under Obama, and given Trump’s own costly trade, government spending and, in certain areas, regulatory (like antitrust) policies.

No, two percent growth is not positive, and it should not be considered the norm for the U.S. economy. A pro-growth agenda of substantive and permanent tax and regulatory relief, advancing free trade, reining in government spending and monetary policy focused on price stability would get the U.S. back on a robust path of economic growth, which would make a real difference for every American.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. You can also order his forthcoming book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York – signed books or for the Kindle. The views expressed here are his own.

A Coronavirus Recession Likely

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 10, 2020

Whether the coronavirus meets the worst or best of expectations in the United States, it’s difficult to see how a recession is missed – or at best, narrowly avoided with growth slowing to a crawl.

Consider that despite the happy talk – or tweets – emerging from assorted political sources, the U.S. economy has not been rocking and rolling. In fact, after some respectable growth numbers from mid-2017 through the third quarter of 2018, the economy has slowed notably since, with real GDP growth averaging only 2.1 percent over the past five quarters.

For good measure, real business investment (as well as overall private investment) has declined in the past three quarters (i.e., the second quarter through the fourth quarter of 2019), and trade has been drag on the economy for the past two years.

Finally, much of economic growth over the past two-plus years has been about the consumer. However, the consumer is a follower, not a leader. Consumers take their cues from what’s going on with business. That is, if new enterprises are being started, and businesses are investing and hiring, then consumers are pleased and spending. While entrepreneurship has been lagging, businesses have been hiring. But given the recent decline in business investment and the uncertainties of the coronavirus, business investment is likely to continue to falter, in the near term, and along with it, now, hiring.

To sum up, when you look at the current status and coming months, there’s little positive to see for major sections of the U.S. economy. Private investment is likely to continue to falter (or at best stagnate), trade will continue to be a drag, and the consumer is likely to be hunkering down. That combines to spell either a recession or no growth in the short term.

Another question to ponder: Is the U.S. well-positioned from a policy standpoint so that economic growth snaps back afterwards – either later this year or into 2021? Consider that we were not positioned to do so after the last recession, and have since suffered through an under-performing recovery/expansion period since mid-2009. Quick answer? Trade policy remains anti-growth, as does government spending (with big spending increases over the last two years). Taxes generally have been a policy positive since December 2017. The regulatory story has been mixed, but overall a net plus. And monetary policy remains unhinged from economic reality, with the hope being that Fed cluelessness continues to be corrected or ignored by the private sector.

Oh yes, and then there’s this presidential and congressional election thing coming in November?

Snap back or no, then? It’s hard to tell. My best guess is that a short recession or no-growth period is followed by a short snap back, and then barring some strong pro-growth policy changes, the economy falls back into the slow-growth scenario that we’ve suffered under for too long.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Stop Whining About and Instead Celebrate Daylight Saving Time

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 6, 2020

While we all have our pet peeves, I confess to often being bewildered by what really gets under people’s skin. The approach of Daylight Saving Time each year, for example, generates annoyance that I really don’t get.

This year, Daylight Saving Time arrives early Sunday (March 8) morning, with our clocks being turned forward one hour. In the end, it’s basically about a shift of an hour of sunlight from the morning to the evening.

So, what’s the beef? Primarily, people complain about losing an hour of sleep. Really? For one night, the clock is pushed ahead one hour, and people can’t adjust their sleeping schedule accordingly? You know, for that one day, go to bed an hour earlier than normal. Is it really that hard?

But the shift proves just too much for some, and they complain – often quite loudly.

In reality, the shift to Daylight Saving Time should be celebrated. 

First, it’s a signal that spring will be arriving shortly, leaving behind the cold, darkness and snow of winter. That’s always welcome. Second, shifting an hour of daylight from the morning to the evening as warmer weather and more daylight overall approach points to more time to enjoy the outdoors later in the day, including, for example, for fun like golf, barbequing, swimming, sailing, beach time, reading a book on the porch or deck, or whatever else one savors outdoors.

Still, there are going to be those who whine about one lost hour of sleep and a shift on the clock. If that’s the case, here’s the solution: After we move to Daylight Saving Time on Sunday, just leave it there, forever. Don’t go back to so-called Standard Time on November 1. Make Daylight Saving Time the true standard time, as it should be.

But until that happens, stop the whining, and with Daylight Saving Time, appreciate the coming of spring, warmer weather, and more evening fun under the sun.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Among the Big Issues? Wendy’s Breakfast Blows Past McDonald’s

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 4, 2020

Sure, there’s a lot of stuff going on and grabbing our attention. But for a few moments, forget election-year politics, economic uncertainty, a volatile stock market, and other troubles. It’s time for all of us – whether on the left, on the right or in the middle – to unite behind breakfast at Wendy’s.

Yes, I said breakfast at Wendy’s. Among leading fast-food establishments, Wendy’s has skyrocketed to the front of the pack. Move over, McDonald’s – or more accurately, get the heck out of the way.

Wendy’s breakfast menu went national on Monday (March 2), and after sampling assorted items, my immediate response was: What took so long?

Now, let’s understand that fast-food breakfasts (or lunches and dinners, for that matter) are not going to energize you for the day, or score very high on the super-healthy-food index. But if you’re looking for the occasional quick, comfort-food breakfast, then Wendy’s rocks it.

The Breakfast Baconator is nothing less than a morning beast, with, as Wendy’s explains, “grilled sausage, American cheese, Applewood smoked bacon, a fresh-cracked grade A egg, (deep breath) more cheese and more bacon all covered in swiss cheese sauce.” It’s freakin’ delicious, and the nicely seasoned, accompanying potatoes, and a drink, make for a delicious combo. My advice: Savor it, and then go back to bed for a nap.

Next on the breakfast hit parade is the Maple Bacon Chicken Croissant. Chicken as part of breakfast I believe is a southern thing, and if so, thanks to all of my friends in the South. God bless you. This mix of chicken breast, bacon and maple butter makes for a sweet-and-savory morning delight.

The Honey Butter Chicken Biscuit also ranks as tasty, with a nice combination of chicken breast and maple honey butter on a buttermilk biscuit. I’m a sucker for a good biscuit. The problem is when they’re too dry. That was not the case with Wendy’s. For good measure, the Bacon, Egg & Swiss Croissant beats out other establishments’ basic morning sandwiches.

It’s really not surprising that Wendy’s has done well entering the breakfast market given that their burgers and chicken sandwiches during the rest of the day rank far superior compared to, for example, McDonald’s and Burger King. Although, yes, McDonald’s still has the best fries.

I always thought it was interesting that Wendy’s did the square hamburgers. On the company’s website, it’s noted: “Wendy's became known for square hamburgers, made from fresh, never-frozen beef, that hang over the bun, because we don’t cut corners on quality.” I like that, and now they’re bringing some quality to the fast-food breakfast.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

The Fed is Impotent

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – March 2, 2020

All sorts of talking heads and incessant Tweeters in politics and on Wall Street cry out for the Fed to act in the face of the spreading coronavirus. Specifically, they call for the Fed to cut interest rates (i.e., the federal funds rate) and do another round of quantitative easing (i.e., pumping more money out the door).

As markets have dropped due to uncertainty swirling around the coronavirus, it’s painfully ridiculous to assume that the Fed could do anything to make a difference. But politicians and many in the financial industry have bought into the mistaken assumption that the Fed is some kind of all-powerful entity when it comes to the economy. 

That most assuredly is not the case. In fact, the Fed has proven to be impotent for at least a dozen years now.

Consider that since the late summer 2008, the Fed has been running insanely loose monetary policy – so loose that is has no precedent in U.S. history – and yet we suffered through one of the worst, if not the worst, recession since the Great Depression, and a grossly underperforming recovery/expansion period since mid-2009.

For example, the Fed expanded the monetary base - that is, the sum of currency in circulation and reserve balances (deposits held by banks and other depository institutions in their accounts at the Federal Reserve) from $875 billion in August 2008 to $3.45 trillion in February 2020 (actually topping $4 trillion at points in 2014 and 2015). At the same time, excess bank reserves went from a mere $1.9 billion in August 2008 to $1.5 trillion in February 2020. Even with the Fed reining things in the monetary base a tad from September 2017 to September 2019, there remains no lack of liquidity. 

Meanwhile, real GDP growth has averaged a rather woeful 2.3 percent since mid-2009. That compares to average growth of 3.6 percent that prevailed from 1950 to 2007, and during recovery/expansion years over that period, the average had been 4.4 percent. That is, real economic growth has been running at nearly half of what it should since mid-2009.

Nonetheless, apologists will proclaim that the Fed somehow saved the U.S. economy during the 2008-09 mess and afterwards. In reality, the best that could be said about Fed monetary policy since 2008 is that it made no difference. More likely, such unprecedented looseness added to the uncertainty that contributed to sluggish growth.

And now the Fed’s minions are looking for a further loosening of monetary policy. Their answers, though, to questions as to how this would actually make a difference in the current situation remains, to be generous, elusive.

The Fed can do nothing positive while this unfortunate coronavirus scenario plays out – indeed, nor can the White House or Congress (other than accelerating the drug approval process for pharmaceutical companies). However, poor decisions certainly could create further negatives now and after the coronavirus fades away to become a grave and unfortunate memory.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Free Enterprise in Three Minutes with Ray Keating – Episode #54: Wrongheaded Assumptions on Taxes and Government from Mayor Pete (SPECIAL DOUBLE ISSUE – 6-Plus Minutes)

In this podcast episode of Free Enterprise in Three Minutes, Ray Keating focuses on three big mistaken assumptions that lead Pete Buttigieg, running to be the Democratic Party’s presidential nominee, and a host of other politicians far astray on matters of government spending and taxes.

Tune in here.

A Golf Course Case Makes Clear Long Island’s Costly Dysfunction

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – February 26, 2020

When it comes to taxes and government waste, Long Island stands out for its excesses and dysfunction. And Suffolk County is serving up another example with a case involving two golf courses in the Town of Riverhead.

The Links at Cherry Creek and The Woods at Cherry Creek golf courses have been up for sale for a few years now. So, what particularly makes this an ugly Long Island story? The answer is twofold – first, it has to do with why the courses are up for sale, and second, what county government is considering in response.

A February 24 RiverheadLocal.com story hit on what’s happening. The two courses cover 296 acres, and according to one of the ownership partners, Vinny Sasso, “It’s very tough. And golf is very seasonal. This year you’re getting some play, but normally in the winter you’re closed for like five months. If the taxes were reasonable we wouldn’t even think about selling.”

The property tax bill was $354,990. That’s simply stunning.

Here’s a glaring example of taxes suffocating business on Long Island – indeed, forcing a business to sell. Unfortunately, that’s not all that unusual on Long Island, or across much of New York, for that matter.

What’s the response of elected officials? Well, on Long Island, the answer is to make the situation even worse. Specifically, the Suffolk County legislature next week will consider a resolution to authorize an appraisal of the property with the ultimate intention of buying the two golf course, and then reverting them to “open space.”

Excuse me?

That’s right, taxpayer money would be used to fork over millions of dollars – it was reported that listed price for the golf courses is $25 million – so that an oddly shaped piece of land, wedged in among farms, houses and another golf course, would be returned to a “natural state.”

Of course, assorted environmental groups love the idea. One would think that any person with common sense, however, would be left bewildered.

On the other hand, heck, what’s not to love? Taxes push a business to sell. Government considers spending tens of millions of taxpayer dollars to buy it. And then the land would be used, well, for absolutely nothing. That’s government. That’s Long Island.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Presidential Elections Mean Wall Street Talking Heads Slip into Denial

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – February 24, 2020

Well, 2020, of course, is a presidential election year, so get ready for some ridiculous political analysis courtesy of various Wall Street, business, and even on occasion, free-market analysts. Many will be in denial regarding what candidates pledge to do on assorted policy issues.

And given that the race for the White House this year will feature a hard-Left Democrat – with socialist Bernie Sanders in front at least for now – against the populist Donald Trump, who exhibits no self-control while on Twitter or near a hot microphone, denial might be ramped up in unprecedented ways. 

Why the denial? As a recent Fox Business article by Randy Swan opened, “Conventional wisdom has long held that investors should dismiss most of what they hear from presidential candidates on the campaign trail.”

Consider a few examples. When Barack Obama ran for president in 2008, assorted business – and even a few free-market – analysts argued that if elected, Obama certainly wouldn’t carry through on his agenda of expanding government’s role in health care, raising taxes, and pushing ahead with protectionist measures on trade – as he most clearly pledged to do on the campaign trail. 

Yet, Obama and Congress imposed ObamaCare; taxes were increased under ObamaCare and at the start of 2013; and while Obama thankfully didn’t push ahead with his protectionist promises, he did largely move the U.S. to the policy sidelines when it came to trade, until his support for the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade accord very late in his administration and to no avail.

So, contrary to widespread assumptions among assorted Wall Street talking heads, Obama pretty much did what he promised to do.

And then there was Donald Trump’s strident anti-free-trade rhetoric on the campaign trail. Many in the chattering class tried to assure investors that Trump wouldn’t go protectionist and/or start a trade war. After all, the argument went, no one would benefit. Well, of course, no one would benefit, yet, Trump shifted U.S. trade policy into a protectionist mode – pulling the U.S. out of the TPP; threatening and imposing higher tariffs on an array of products; attacking our closest trading partners with threats and/or the imposition of costly trade policies; and yes, starting a trade war with China.

So, despite assurances emanating from various “experts,” Trump did exactly what he said he would do on trade.

Go figure.

Why are the carriers of conventional wisdom in denial? Part of it might be a belief that politicians will say anything to get elected, so why believe them? While one is tempted to buy into that, in reality, most people run for the White House for a reason, and even if they seek power, it is power to do something.

More likely, the conventional wisdom-eers actually seem to think that politicians are too smart to do what they’ve promised to do, such as raising taxes, getting government more involved in health care, and engaging in trade wars. Wow, that really is denial!

Politicians have long served up dumb ideas that, for example, fly in the face of sound economics, and they’ll continue doing this, as evidenced by an astounding number of bad ideas being served up by Democrats seeking the White House this year. They, in fact, aren’t smart enough not to believe it. That was the case with Obama and taxes; is the case with Trump and trade; and most certainly is the case with, for example, Bernie Sanders and socialism, and Pete Buttigieg falling in love with seemingly every tax imaginable to man.

Don’t be talked into anything else. In the end, playing the denial game when it comes to politicians willing to do what they promise is highly dangerous. As is often the case with conventional wisdom, it’s dead wrong once again. Investors and everyone else should take what they hear from presidential candidates on the campaign trail very seriously.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Pre-Order BEHIND ENEMY LINES: CONSERVATIVE COMMUNIQUES FROM LEFT-WING NEW YORK - Signed by Ray Keating

NEW! Sale on the PRE-ORDER of BEHIND ENEMY LINES: CONSERVATIVE COMMUNIQUES FROM LEFT-WING NEW YORK - Signed by Ray Keating – Go to https://raykeatingonline.com/products/behindenemylines

Here’s a wide-ranging collection of columns and essays from Ray Keating covering faith, economics, politics, history, trade, New York, foreign affairs, immigration, pop culture, business, sports, books, and more.

Keating is a longtime newspaper and online columnist, economist, policy analyst, and novelist. 

In these often confusing and contradictory times, Keating describes his brand of conservatism as traditional, American and Reagan-esque, firmly rooted in Judeo-Christian values, Western Civilization, the Declaration of Independence, the U.S. Constitution, and essential ideas and institutions such as the Christian Church, the intrinsic value of each individual, the role of the family, freedom and individual responsibility, limited government, and free enterprise and free markets.

Here are the major sections of Behind Enemy Lines from the Table of Contents...

• Introduction: What is Conservatism?          

• Faith Matters

• Economics Isn’t Dismal ... Unless Left to Politicians, the Media and Professors    

• Politics: Unsavory and Not-So-Unsavory

• Why Does Anyone Live in New York?          

• The Not-So-Ugly American

• Trying to Learn from History

• Business Isn’t Evil

• Trade: Opportunity and Stupidity

• Immigration: Hope and Opportunity

• Pop Culture Ponderings

• Sports: The Great Diversion ... Mostly

• Thoughts on Assorted Books

The Road Ahead for NASCAR

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – February 18, 2020

Officially, I’m not a car guy. I changed my oil once years ago, and also swapped out a headlight on a single occasion. And when needed, I’ve jumped a battery. That’s about it when under the hood.

Photo: Courtesy of Daytona International Speedway

However, in recent years, I’ve gained an appreciation for cars. My interests run along the lines of speed, design, the business and history of automobiles, and how car culture has changed over the decades.

What about you? Are you a car guy or gal? Judging by NASCAR ratings and attendance, it appears that there are far fewer now than a little over a decade ago.

For example, the viewership for the 2019 Daytona 500 came in at 9.17 million (a 5.3 rating), which was the lowest looking at data going back to 1979. The peak was hit in 2006 at 19.4 million viewers (an 11.3 rating). Of course, we can’t really compare this year’s Daytona 500, given that rain pushed most of the race from Sunday to Monday (Feb 17^th).

And while the 2020 Daytona 500 reported a sellout in terms of tickets for the fifth year in a row, it must also be noted that those sell outs came after seating at the Daytona International Speedway was cut by 46,000 to 101,000. Reducing seating or available seats for NASCAR races has been anything but unique over the past decade or so.

Of course, NASCAR still matters in the sports business universe, not to mention beyond, as evidenced by President Trump making an appearance at the Daytona 500 this year. But the question is: How much does it matter and what’s about the future?

For a time in the early 2000s, the term “NASCAR dads” emerged to accompany or contrast with “soccer moms.” Both terms, though, have largely disappeared from political discourse. 

Also, the number of NASCAR sponsors has declined, not surprisingly, along with the decline in the NASCAR fan base.

It’s also not surprising to see NASCAR’s audience declining given the overall fragmentation proceeding in the overall entertainment marketplace. For example, the same phenomenon has been going on for movies, network television, and so on. And it’s not going to stop anytime soon.

What to do? First and foremost, keep your fan base engaged, interested and excited, and of course, build it where and when you can.

NASCAR has made some positive changes in recent times. For example, new views and angles – including in-car cameras and drone shots – along with improved graphics have enhanced the television experience. This should continue to be enhanced and improved. Indeed, it’s critical given that NASCAR is similar to football in that the television experience is far superior to the stadium or track experience in terms of viewing the action.

At the same time, NASCAR needs to make some changes to improve the general outlook for the future.

First, there’s a necessity to move beyond the oval racetrack to more road courses and even street racing. Left turns week after week are just monotonous, and seeing stock cars racing through closed off streets in a U.S. city would be darn cool.

Second, at the track, other forms of entertainment need to be ramped up during each NASCAR weekend, i.e., more concerts, shows and whatever else can be tried.

Third, with cord cutting, NASCAR must improve its online streaming options, especially in terms of affordability. Along these lines, new video technology needs to keep pushing ahead, including offering viewers a deeper dive into the pits, including close up views and more analysis of pit stops during the race, and more about who the people are in the pits and beyond in terms of each racing team.

Fourth, in the 1990s and 2000s, NASCAR made some bets on expanding their market outside the South. Nothing wrong with that per se. But at the same time, it seems like NASCAR lost a chunk of its base. It fumbled its brand, and at the same time, created fewer new, highly devoted fans than anticipated (see earlier reference to increasingly fragmented entertainment market). NASCAR had a rebel feel to it, being born out of bootlegging. Getting some of that feel back into its brand can be a plus that helps to set NASCAR apart in the sports marketplace.

Fifth, in terms of younger generations, yes, far fewer people grow up working on their own cars these days, and therefore, fewer traditional car guys and gals are being developed, which, of course, were the foundation of the NASCAR fanbase in the past. But there’s still the speed, the atmosphere, enhanced video and more to make sure the sport gets passed along to the next generation.

NASCAR isn’t going anywhere. There’s a tremendous amount of money to be made via television or streaming, for example. The sport just needs to get a better handle on its market and brand, and then promote it relentlessly. And NASCAR has never been shy about promotion, so that’s a positive. Perhaps the current and future car guy or gal is more – dare I say it? – like me, not necessarily under the hood but looking for excitement and strategy in the pits and at 200 freaking miles per hour.

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Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

Huey Lewis and the News Storms Back with “Weather”

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – February 14, 2020

When it comes to favorite singers or musical groups that return with new music after a lengthy break, fan anticipation usually runs high, but then the results often turn out disappointing. Either the new music just seems not to measure up, or comes across as stale. 

There have been exceptions, however, including from my top two bands.

The biggest surprise for me was the Beach Boys’ That’s Why God Made the Radio album in 2012. The Boys showed that they could still harmonize some fun, beachy tunes in a collection that came a staggering 50 years after their first album.

Number two for me had been Plan B from Huey Lewis and the News in 2001. It came a decade after their previous collection of original works. And yes, after Sports and Fore!, I say Plan B is their next best album. If you haven’t listened, trust me and enjoy it.

But now Huey Lewis and the News has done it again, and this time it’s even more impressive given that 19 years have passed since Plan B. The new album – Weather – was released on February 14^th, Valentine’s Day. And it ranks as one of the top efforts from Huey Lewis and the News.

The new 7-song album serves up Huey Lewis and the News still at the top of their game, with their combination of pop rock and blues rock that keeps the foot tapping and the listener singing along, featuring bright brass, strong guitars, and of course, great harmonica moments and Huey’s distinctive voice.

Among the stand outs on Weather is “Her Love Is Killin’ Me,” which is a driving, good-time song. And by the way, the video is great fun. “While We’re Young” offers reflections on enjoying life no matter how much time has passed, without any trace of melancholy. “Remind Me Why I Love You Again” plays with a couple who disagrees on just about everything, but somehow they’re still in love (or are they?). For some longing and blues, give “Hurry Back Baby” a listen. And “Pretty Girls Everywhere” ranks as an upbeat salute to ‘50s rock ‘n’ roll.

The significance of Weather, of course, is ramped up given the news about Huey Lewis suffering hearing loss to the point where he cannot sing. He has been diagnosed with Meniere’s Disease, but has some hope that one day, thanks to various treatments and healing, he might get back into the studio. But until then, as noted in a Hollywood Reporter interview, Lewis will find other ways to entertain fans, including working on a musical featuring the band’s music and perhaps doing some acting.

The Hollywood Reporter also noted Lewis’s reflections on music crossing genres, demographics and ages:

Lewis said he felt [that] was missing from the modern day industry. “Today, society is much more integrated, but music is segregated — it's weird,” he said. “You can listen to one kind of music all day long; you can listen to one kind of politics all day long — that's just not healthy. And what was nice about Top 40 radio was it was an editing process where we all tried to have a hit. If you heard a Huey Lewis and the News song on KFRC, the next song might be a Garth Brooks song or a Commodores song or an AC/DC song. … It was an editing process that was, I think, kind of good, in retrospect. You can't have a hit like that today. They just don't exist.”

Well, if any group can offer some of that today, arguably it would be Huey Lewis and the News. Indeed, Huey and his bandmates have served up some wonderful new music in Weather that warrants broad appreciation.

__________

Ray Keating is a columnist, an economist, a novelist (his latest novels are The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12^thbook in the series, and the second edition of Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel with a new Author Introduction), a nonfiction author (among his recent works is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know), a podcaster, and an entrepreneur. The views expressed here are his own.

New Edition of "Root of All Evil? A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel" Just Published!

This Thriller/Mystery from Award-Winning Novelist Ray Keating Arrives with a New Author Introduction

Long Island, NY – Ray Keating has just published a second edition of ROOT OF ALL EVIL? A PASTOR STEPHEN GRANT NOVEL. The new edition of this gripping political thriller not only features an outstanding new cover, courtesy of Tyrel Bramwell, but a new Author Introduction.

Stephen Grant, pastor at St. Mary’s Lutheran Church on Long Island, former Navy SEAL and onetime CIA operative, came on the thriller/mystery scene in WARRIOR MONK: A PASTOR STEPHEN GRANT NOVEL(a second edition of Warrior Monk arrived early last year with a new Epilogue, new Introduction and an exciting cover). The tale continues to develop in page-turning fashion in ROOT OF ALL EVIL?

In ROOT OF ALL EVIL?, Keating asks: Do God, politics and money mix? As the reader comes to realize, the combination can turn out quite deadly. This breathtaking thriller features drug traffickers, politicians, the CIA and FBI, a shadowy foreign regime, the Church, and money. Charity, envy and greed are on display, with the action running high. 

In this second edition of ROOT OF ALL EVIL?, Ray Keating has written an Author Introduction focused on some of the challenges of penning a political thriller, including maintaining an edge-of-your-seat feel while not annoying the reader with the petty real world of politics. Keating also talks about how some key characters fit into ROOT OF ALL EVIL?, as well as how his own experiences fed the story.

Keating has penned 12 Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries, and received widespread praise. For example, the Lutheran Book Review has declared, “I miss Tom Clancy. Keating fills that void for me.” 

The publication of a new second edition of ROOT OF ALL EVIL? is part of a yearlong celebration throughout 2020 marking 10 years of Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries. 

Paperbacks and Kindle editions of ROOT OF ALL EVIL? A PASTOR STEPHEN GRANT NOVEL are available at Amazon.com, and signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com.

Indeed, all of Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers/mysteries are available at Amazon.com and at RayKeatingOnline.com – THE TRAITOR (2019), DEEP ROUGH (2019),SHIFTING SANDS(2018), HEROES AND VILLAINS(2018), REAGAN COUNTRY(2018), LIONHEARTS(2017), WINE INTO WATER(2016), MURDERER’S ROW(2015), THE RIVER(2014), AN ADVENT FOR RELIGIOUS LIBERTY(2012),ROOT OF ALL EVIL?(Second Edition 2020 – originally published2012), andWARRIOR MONK (Second Edition 2019 – originally published 2010) 

Review copies, and author interviews and appearances are available upon request. 

“Celebrating Pastor Stephen Grant Thrillers & Mysteries for 10 Years – 2010 to 2020 – and Beyond!”

Contact: Ray Keating

Phone: 631-909-1122

E-mail: raykeating@keatingreports.com

Facebook: www.facebook.com/PastorStephenGrantNovels

Twitter: @KeatingNovels

Website: PastorStephenGrant.com

Blog: www.pastorstephengrant.blogspot.com