For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Justin Bieber, Chance the Rapper and Dante? In the Tradition of Christian Art

 by David Keating

The Keating Files – October 29, 2020

 

My wife and I recently sat down to watch an episode of Saturday Night Live. Normally, I don’t bother to tune in unless there is a guest that I particularly enjoy, but with an election growing ever closer, I thought there might be some amusing parody or commentary on the state of American politics. What we got instead was much different.



The musical guest for October 17, 2020, was none other than Justin Bieber. I admit, I was pretty unfamiliar with his music as well as his personal transformation that he has apparently undergone. My knowledge of his music was pretty much limited to his kitschy, teen-focused bops from the early 2010s. Imagine my surprise when I saw someone far removed from that pop star of yesteryear appear on my television screen. Bieber was looking older, was adorned with more tattoos compared to last time I had tuned into his songs, and had a far more sincere focus in the song he performed for the audience. 

 

Each musical guest has the opportunity to design the soundstage from which he or she will perform. This week’s musical guest had designed the stage to be brimming with foliage on either side of the stage, and, above the stage was placed an enormous neon cross. I wasn’t sure how much to read into this as there are artists from time to time who use religious imagery to simply heighten or boost their own image or sense of gravitas in their performance. But then came the lyrics:

 

I hear a lot about sinners

Don't think that I'll be a saint

But I might go down to the river, uh

'Cause the way that the sky opens up when we touch

Yeah, it's makin' me say

 

That the way you hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me

Feels so holy, holy, holy, holy, holy

On God

Runnin' to the altar like a track star

Can't wait another second

'Cause the way you hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me

Feels so holy

 

Again, talk about surprising. That’s about as powerful a testimony as one can get on SNL or from the pop genre in general. About midway through the song, the musical guest brought on a guest of his own, Chance the Rapper, who sang these lyrics: 

 

I wanna honor, wanna honor you

Bride's groom, I'm my father's child

I know when the son takes the first steps, the Father's proud

If you make it to the water He'll part the clouds

I know He made you a snack like Oscar Proud

Suffer it to be so now gotta clean it up

Formalize the union in communion He can trust

I know I ain't leavin' you like I know He ain't leavin' us

I know we believe in God and I know God believes in us

 

Chance the Rapper has been very vocal about his own journey in reclaiming his Christian roots. He cites his faith as something that allowed him to get his life on track and quit smoking. But, beyond just clean living, I would argue listeners are getting to see a side of Christianity and Christian testimony that we don’t see discussed all that much in our culture. I would argue that Christianity actually empowers artists, through the faith-based tradition of Christian art and music, to give voice and a vocabulary to a transcendent kind of love. 

 

It isn’t just Chance the Rapper or Justin Bieber who are discovering something unique and life-changing about the Gospel, nor is it just the two of them who are seeking to put their faith into their music. Just recently, Kanye West captured headlines when he released 2019’s Jesus is King. Paired with Jesus is King, Kanye West has also been holding Sunday spiritual revivals known as his “Sunday Service” events. 

 

To many Christians, especially mainstream Protestants and evangelicals, this seems surprising and even a little confusing. To be sure, the version of Christianity presented by West and Bieber looks different. Most of our sanctuaries aren’t adorned with neon crosses or held outdoors with adoring fans looking on. 

 

However, it seems that these artists are making a logical progression in their music. 


What do I mean by this? Much of Chance the Rapper, Justin Bieber, and Kanye West’s work has focused on themes surrounding love, beauty, and the pursuit of that beauty. If we’re being honest looking at some of their past releases, we can see that the pursuit of beauty has often worked itself out in selfish ways, valuing sexuality above all else. But people who are interested in following the pursuit of the good as well as the beautiful know that love is never left at just desire. Instead, love pursues something deeper than that. 

 

It may sound ridiculous, but I think these artists of today actually find themselves in a Christian tradition that goes back to Dante at the very least. Dante too pursued the beautiful and lost his object of adoration at a very young age. Having lost this woman whom he loved, Beatrice, Dante finds himself lost within a “dark forest” of a midlife crisis. What Dante finds is that he discovers more and more about that love he bore for Beatrice was actually pointing toward something far greater. Dante eventually understands that the love of something beautiful (Beatrice) actually drew him toward contemplation of the source of that which is good and beautiful, which is the life of God. 

 

Beatrice pointed Dante toward "the Love that moves the sun, the moon, and the other stars” (Paradiso, XXXIII). Is that a little sentimental and schmaltzy? Sure. But, love often is. And the funny thing is, it doesn’t sound that far off from Justin Bieber’s confession that, “the way you hold me feels so holy.” My hope is that all of these artists continue to dive deep into their faith as so many other Christian artists have throughout the centuries as they embrace the divine love of God, which empowers the love we have for one another. 

 

__________

 

The Reverend David Keating is pastor at St. John’s Lutheran Church in Curtis, Nebraska.

 

Previously by Pastor Keating…

 

“Faith and Family in Fargo”

 

“Death and Resurrection in Game of Thrones”

 

“Greta Gerwig’s Church Nostalgia: Why Does Hollywood Miss Christianity?

 

“Interstellar: Love, Time, and Space”

 

“Mad Men - What is Happiness? Don Draper and St. Augustine”

 

Zack Snyder’s Messy Super-Jesus”

 

“Short Message: How Do, or Should, Christians Witness?”

 

“Amazon’s ‘The Boys’ - Does Christianity Have a Culture Problem?

 

“Reflecting on 9/11: Why Do Bad Things Happen to Good People?”

 

Saturday, October 24, 2020

Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 24, 2020

 

Politics is prone to people fooling themselves. Poll watching can become part of this self-deception when it degrades into highlighting polls that favor your candidate, and tossing aside polls that favor the other guy or gal. Fooling oneself also becomes evident when history is twisted to fit a preferred political narrative.

 

This phenomenon infects many Trump supporters this year in three particular ways.



First, highlighting some polls and ignoring others is a choice that seems to be running rampant among Trump supporters. Why? With Election Day only ten days away, the national polls have President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by significant numbers. 

 

As a race comes down to the end, if one is looking at polling in a serious way, then the key is to watch averages of recent polls, rather than grabbing that one poll that reflects what you want to happen.

 

Looking at averages, Biden leads Trump right now by 8-9 percentage points. That’s a  daunting deficit for the president, especially at this late point in the race.

 

The second mistake when watching political polls has to do with misinterpreting history. Many Trump supporters, for example, have latched onto the idea that the polls in 2016 were dead wrong, so they will be this year, too. In reality, the national polls in 2016 were correct, as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by 48.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Factor in the margins of error present in all polling, and the national polls were pretty much spot on. 

 

The problem in 2016 came with state polls in three states, and those states broke unexpectedly and very narrowly for Trump, gaining him the White House, i.e., Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Taking note of these states this year, the task for the president remains formidable. Biden holds solid leads, again, looking at poll averages, in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

 

Misinterpreting history also is the third problem this year. There’s a great deal of talk about how Ronald Reagan was trailing Jimmy Carter in 1980, but then the race broke late for Reagan, after the last presidential debate, and he went on to a big win. 

 

Yes, Reagan did win big in 1980 (thankfully!). However, when you look at the polls in total, Reagan really hadn’t been trailing Carter since May of that year. Yes, the race tightened and widened over those subsequent five-plus months, and a poll here and there put Carter up, but Reagan never fell behind when looking at the polls in full.

 

Consider the following chart presented in a 2012 analysis. Eight years ago, Romney folks also were grasping at the idea of a late comeback by Reagan.



As the author, John Sides, noted: “ The plot shows … the ebbing of Carter’s poll standing throughout 1980.  Indeed, Reagan didn’t need his convention bump — which he certainly got — to put him in the lead.  The Democratic convention helped erode Reagan’s lead but it never closed it altogether.”

 

So, where does the Reagan story come from? Gallup, actually. Their polling before the last Carter-Reagan debate (held on October 28) put Carter up by 8 points, but that was among registered voters. The same poll had Carter up by only 3 points (within the margin of error) among likely voters, which is the more substantive polling measure. And again, this was one poll, ignoring the full polling picture at the time.

 

Can the polls be wrong? Of course. But it’s the exception. In the end, it’s about who comes out to vote. And that’s part of what pollsters try to figure out. But outside of an agenda-driven survey here and there, polling data is not the arbitrary, manipulative tool that it often gets labeled as – especially by those who happen to be trailing in the polls.

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Stop Looking at the Unemployment Rate: The New York Example”

 

“Is Trump Toast?”

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Pre-order the forthcoming Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/vaticanshadows and the Kindle Edition at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08L1HLRP3

 

Also, choose your 2021 TO DO List planner today, and enjoy the pre-order sale! Perfect for you and as Christmas gifts. Choose between The Lutheran Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, The Film Buff’s Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, and The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution. Get more information at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/todolistsolutionplanners

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

 

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

Faith and Family in Fargo

 by David Keating

The Keating Files – October 21, 2020

 

Season 4 of FX’s anthology series Fargo offers some timely commentary on issues of crime in America, racial divides, the legacy of families, and faith. 

 

Each season of Fargo provides a self-contained story with a new set of characters and locations loosely inspired by the tone and narrative style of Joel and Ethan Coen, who directed the original Fargo in 1996. While the television series has never been a ratings smash, it does give audiences something different in the crime genre. 



The characters contained in the show are often more than just quirky, Coen-esque figures. Instead, they give voice to complex aspects of human life and experience through the lens of this darkly comic world crafted in the show. 

 

One particular aspect of season 4 that interested me involved the role of faith and the family. In this season, the narrative focuses on two crime syndicates located in Kansas City, Missouri, as they vie for control over the criminal empire located there. The season begins a series of montages in which we see power transfer over the course of decades from The Moskowitz Syndicate, a Jewish crime family, to The Milligan Concern, an Irish crime operation. After some time, the balance of power transfers from The Milligan Concern to the Fadda family, an Italian group of immigrants. The viewer follows the rise of the Fadda family until eventually the Italian group comes into conflict with an African-American gang, known as Cannon Limited. The conflict that emerges between the Fadda family and Cannon Limited is the main focus of the show. The montage underscores how waves of immigration help form American history and culture.

 

In the close of episode 2, “The Land of Taking and Killing,” the audience is shown two separate dinner scenes. Loy Cannon (the patriarch of Cannon Limited, played by Chris Rock) sits down for dinner with his family and begins to pray. His prayer reads as follows, “Lord, we know the road is long. We thank You for that road because the journey makes us wise. We know the climb is hard, we thank You for that climb because climbing makes us strong. You made the land and the sea and You filled it with injustice so that we would have work to do and we thank You for that work. You made the meek so that the meek could inherit the earth and you made the mighty so that we could defend the meek.” At the end of this prayer, we transition to the Fadda family sitting down to dinner and their patriarch Josto Fadda (played by Jason Schwartzman) begins to pray. 

 

What do I find so interesting about these two families and their prayer life? I think it gets at the tendency to see faith as something connected to the life and rhythm of the family. Prayer brings together and connects the individuals in the household to a greater cause and something outside of themselves. It unites brothers, sisters, mothers, and fathers as they gather for a meal. Prayer brings together people who may have differences among themselves, and it has the ability to unite them in a shared identity. It helps to give voice to the struggles of a group as they present their thanksgiving, lament, and hopes to God. 

 

That’s the benefit of prayer, but what’s the downside presented to us in this scene in Fargo? It underscores how ugly it can be when Christianity only unites inside the home, but remains silent outside of the household. Despite both the Faddas and the Cannons being religious households, they remain at war with one another. Their dispute leads to bloodshed and death both in their families and in their communities. When faith becomes nothing more than just about that sense of unity and familial bond, it can actually become a dangerous thing that creates tribal alliances and divisions. Faith necessarily has to be about more than just the legacy of one individual family or nationality. In other words, faith should force the individual to turn their gaze outside the self and outside the family, toward those around us.

 

This is, after all, St. Paul’s encouragement when he says, “There is neither Jew nor Greek, there is neither slave nor free, there is no male and female, for you are all one in Christ Jesus.” (Galatians 3:28) The point here is that faith can be something that binds a family together in a common cause, but there are many other things that are able to do that as well. Things like duty, honor, or a care for one’s future descendants can create a common cause in the family unit. What Christianity does, or at least should do, is bring together people from very disparate backgrounds who normally would be at odds with one another into a common faith and a shared sense of identity. St. Paul pushed back against the idea that there were divisions along racial lines within the Church, and he would push back against the kinds of familial identities that divide Christians we see at play in Fargo. Is faith good for the family? Absolutely. But it never stops there, remaining as only a good for the family. Instead, the Christian faith actually branches out and seeks to bring together very different people from all different backgrounds, creeds, and ethnicities. 

 

Think for a moment about global Catholicism. There are Irish Catholics, Italian Catholics, Polish Catholics, African Catholics… the list goes on and on. Many of these groups would have nothing in common in a normal social situation, yet they all bear the name Catholic. The enmity which they may normally have for one another is erased by their shared religion. The same is true of global Christianity more broadly. Christianity is about far more than a familial identity. Instead, it is about a newfound family which is the Church. This family is founded not upon parentage, but instead upon a common confession about who Jesus Christ is and what he does for each individual sinner. It is through this new birth of faith that a global community and family is formed that is unlike any other social organization found in our day-to-day lives. 

 

So, if we want a positive take away from these dinner scenes in Fargo, we can look to the fact that people, both audiences and creators, still see prayer as helpful in giving voice to our dreams and ambitions, our suffering and our hurt. But we should be reminded that prayer never exists for the benefit of the self alone. Instead, prayer always looks out for and seeks out the neighbor, those different than ourselves, in order to pray for their wellbeing and benefit as well.  

 

__________

 

The Reverend David Keating is pastor at St. John’s Lutheran Church in Curtis, Nebraska.

 

Previously by Pastor Keating…

 

“Death and Resurrection in Game of Thrones”

 

“Greta Gerwig’s Church Nostalgia: Why Does Hollywood Miss Christianity?

 

“Interstellar: Love, Time, and Space”

 

“Mad Men - What is Happiness? Don Draper and St. Augustine”

 

Zack Snyder’s Messy Super-Jesus”

 

“Short Message: How Do, or Should, Christians Witness?”

 

“Amazon’s ‘The Boys’ - Does Christianity Have a Culture Problem?

 

“Reflecting on 9/11: Why Do Bad Things Happen to Good People?”

 

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Stop Looking at the Unemployment Rate: The New York Example

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 20, 2020

 

Throughout my career as an economist, one of my pet peeves has been the unemployment rate. It’s widely cited by the media, politicians, and even fellow economists, yet it can be a grossly misleading economic indicator.

 

Why does the unemployment rate get so much attention? Well, it’s supposedly a straightforward picture of what’s happening in terms of jobs. After all, if the unemployment rate increases, that’s bad news; and if the unemployment rate drops, that’s good news. So, if you need a reliable number that tells the story on people working or not, just look at the unemployment rate, right? Well, no.



It turns out that a rise in the unemployment rate can occur when the jobs market is improving, and a drop in the unemployment rate can happen when the employment situation is getting worse.

 

The latest jobs data on New York provides an example that probably would surprise most. 

 

For September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the New York unemployment rate dropped from 12.5 percent in August to 9.7 percent in September. In addition, the number of unemployed declined from 1.19 million in August to 884,650 in September. 

 

That all great, right? Again, the answer is a resounding “no.” 

 

It turns out that the labor force in New York declined from 9.5 million in August to 9.13 million in September, and employment actually dropped from 8.31 million in August to 8.25 million in September. That is, the labor force decline by 362,889 and employment fell by 60,867.

 

Wait, employment fell and the unemployment rate declined? How does that work? Well, it turns out that the decline in the unemployment rate was all about a declining labor force. The unemployment rate is calculated as the number of unemployed as a share of the labor force. Leave the labor force, and you’re no longer counted. 

 

So, New York’s unemployment rate didn’t fall in September because the number of employed increased (indeed, the number of employed actually fell), but because a large chunk of people simply left the labor force altogether.

 

What’s better than the unemployment rate in terms of gauging the jobs market? Two measures – the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratio. And it turns out that both declined in New York in September. 

 

The New York labor force participation rate (the percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years and older that is working or looking for work) declined from 60.8 percent in August to 58.5 percent in September, which is a drastic falloff. And the employment-population ratio (the percentage of the civilian noninstitutional population that is employed) in New York dropped from 53.2 percent in August to 52.8 percent in September.

 

So, to get the real story on the jobs market, toss aside the unemployment rate, and look at the numbers that actually matter. When doing that, it turns out that the jobs story for New York in September was quite negative.

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Is Trump Toast?”

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Friday, October 16, 2020

Is Trump Toast?

 by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 16, 2020

 

When a president runs for a second term, the race overwhelmingly turns out to be a referendum on the incumbent.

 

I’ve said this before but it bears repeating: I’d love to be able to claim that Ronald Reagan’s win in 1980 was a vote for Reagan, but in reality, it was a vote against Jimmy Carter. The 1984 contest turned out to be a resounding, 49-state approval for Reagan.



So, make no mistake, this 2020 presidential contest is largely about President Donald Trump. And that’s turning out quite poorly for the president, and perhaps for Republicans in general.

 

On Friday (October 16) morning, pollster and focus-group guru Frank Luntz made two important points on CNBC. First, he noted that his focus groups and surveys are telling him that the voters who remain undecided regarding the Trump-Biden contest overwhelming dislike, even despise, the president as a person, but at the same time, they’re afraid of the policies of Joe Biden and the Democrats. That’s not surprising. After all a large swath of the nation seems to fall into this category. Second, Luntz noted that, historically, those who remain undecided close to the vote, break two-thirds for the challenger. 

 

When you look at where the polls are today, none of this is good news for Trump. 

 

While Trump consistently trailed Hillary Clinton in the national polling in 2016, those polls overwhelmingly were within the margin of error. Also, when you look at the polling averages, Clinton’s average percentage never touched 50 percent over the seven-plus months leading up to Election Day. Coming down the stretch, Clinton’s average ran between 46 percent and 48 percent, and Trump’s between 42 percent and 45 percent. The final outcome? Clinton won 46.8 percent versus Trump’s 43.6 percent. The national polls nailed the popular vote. 

 

This year, in recent weeks, polling averages have Biden running between 49 percent and 52 percent, with Trump down at 42 percent to 43 percent. Barring some bizarre occurrence – like Joe Biden during the last debate screaming, “Get the squirrels off me!” – that would seem to be an insurmountable lead.

 

But as many people learned in 2016, the presidential race actually is a state-by-state contest, decided in the Electoral College. So, let’s update our look at the battleground states.

 

Arizona (11 electoral votes). The most reliable recent polls put Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 percentage points, with Biden running in the 49 percent to 51 percent range.

 

Florida (29 electoral votes). Florida still falls into the toss-up category. But most recent polls have Biden up by anywhere from 2 to 7 points. However, one poll puts the two in a tie, and another has Trump up by 2 points. 

 

Michigan (16 electoral votes). The recent polls overwhelmingly show Biden widening his lead in the state, generally possessing a 6-to-9 percentage point lead. However, one recent outlier puts Trump up by 1 point, that is, a dead heat.

 

Minnesota (10 electoral votes). The recent polls show Biden holding a consistent lead.

 

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The state now leans slightly toward Biden, with polls ranging from a dead heat to Biden up by 6 percentage points. 

 

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). While Biden holds a consistent lead in Pennsylvania, depending on the poll, the race is either very close or Biden holds a comfortable lead. Indeed, the president’s been hanging tough in this state. 

 

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Biden continues to look strong in Wisconsin, with a lead stretching out as far as 10 percentage points. Although one poll puts the race within the margin of error.

 

Ohio (18 electoral votes). The latest polls show an effective dead heat in Ohio, with Trump holding a slight edge. The polls range from Biden being up by one point to Trump being up by 3 points.

 

Iowa (6 electoral votes). While Iowa is an effective dead heat, the recent polls show things leaning ever so slightly toward Trump, with him holding leads from 1 to 6 points.

 

Georgia (16 electoral votes). It’s rather stunning to look at the polls in Georgia. The race in this normally safe Republican state range from Trump having a 2 point lead to Biden holding a lead of 7 points.

 

Nevada (6 electoral votes). The latest reliable polls show Biden holding an edge anywhere from 2 to 6 points. The far less reliable polls show him with a bigger lead.

 

Texas (38 electoral votes). Amazingly, Texas, normally Republican country, stands as a dead heat, with the latest polls ranging from Biden being up by 2 points to Trump up by 7 points. (See my take on Texas apparently going Purple.)

 

Alaska (3 electoral votes). Here’s another bizarre item: The lone reliable poll served up in Alaska recently put Trump up 45 percent to Biden’s 39 percent. However, that’s within the poll’s margin of error. Now, I don’t expect Trump to lose Alaska, but Biden within the margin of error speaks to the broader troubles that Republicans are facing. 

 

Right now, a worst case scenario for Joe Biden would give Biden 304 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win. In a Blue wave scenario, that tally could go as high as 393.

 

And when Republicans have to spend time and money in Georgia and in Texas that spells big trouble for Trump and his party.

 

It’s worth noting the comments revealed in the media made by U.S. Senator Ben Sasse (R-NE) to town hall with constituents. According to a report from the New York Times, when asked about why he’s so hard on Trump, Sasse unloaded on Trump, hitting him on a wide array of issues. That included Sasse warning, “We are staring down the barrel of a blue tsunami.”

 

The polling data point to Trump being toast. The real question appears to be: How bad will it be for Republicans in general?

 

__________

 

Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

 

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

 

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

 

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

 

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

 

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

 

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

 

“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”

 

“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”

 

“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”

 

__________

 

Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur.  You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York  from Amazon or signed books  at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should KnowThe views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

 

Keating’s latest novel is  The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club.  Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

 

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast  and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast  

 

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.