The Keating Files

For about 20 years, Ray Keating wrote a weekly column - a short time with the New York City Tribune, more than 11 years with Newsday, another seven years with Long Island Business News, plus another year-and-a-half with RealClearMarkets.com. As an economist, Keating also pens an assortment of analyses each week. With the Keating Files, he decided to expand his efforts with regular commentary touching on a broad range of issues, written by himself and an assortment of talented contributors and columnists. So, here goes...

Thursday, November 5, 2020

Talking James Bond with the Mid-Modcasters

I was fortunate to be a guest on The Mid-Modcast Podcast with Craig, Paula and Dave to chat about James Bond. This episode was recorded before we lost Sean Connery, and was posted today. I had a swell time being on with the Mid-Modcasters to talk cool spy stuff. Hope you have a terrific time tuning in!

Tuesday, November 3, 2020

Last-Minute Take: What Will the Senate Look Like in 2021?

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – November 3, 2020

Today’s election not only is about the White House, but the control of the U.S. Senate as well. Currently, Republicans hold the Senate by a 53-47 margin.

What are the polls telling us about where the Senate might wind up in 2021?

Alabama. Senator Doug Jones is a Democrat who looks destined to lose to Republican Tommy Tuberville.

Arizona. Senator Martha McSally is a Republican, and she looks to be in serious trouble against Democratic challenger Mark Kelly. (Read my piece on this race.)

Colorado. Republican Senator Cory Gardner is trailing Democrat and former governor John Hickenlooper by a yawning margin in the polls.

Georgia. The Peach State actually has two Senate races. Republican Senator David Perdue is up for re-election, and the current seat held by Republican Kelly Loeffler. Perdue holds a tiny edge in the polls, while Loeffler is running in a crowded field. Georgia requires the winner to clear the 50 percent mark. If that isn’t hit, there would be a runoff on January 5. Heading into today’s vote, the Loeffler race is destined for January 5, and the Perdue seat could be determined then as well. It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Perdue seat remain Republican and the Loeffler seat go to the Democrats – eventually.

Iowa. Republican Senator Joni Ernst is running ever-so-slightly behind her Democratic challenger, Theresa Greenfield. But this race is way too close to call.

Maine. Senator Susan Collins is a Republican who always seems to be hanging on, but she is trailing Democrat Sara Gideon in a tight race.

Montana. Republican Senator Steve Daines is in a dead heat with Democratic Governor Steve Bullock.

North Carolina. Republican Senator Thom Tillis is fighting for his political life against Democrat Cal Cunningham. And despite the fact that Cunningham is embroiled in a scandal involving an affair, he still holds a small, steady lead over Tillis. (Hey, this is 2020, and neither Democrats nor Republicans apparently care about such controversies any longer.)

South Carolina. Republican Lindsey Graham is in a dead heat with Democrats Jaime Harrison.

The polling numbers heading into tonight do not bode well for Republicans holding onto the Senate. In the end, Democrats could grab a Senate majority with 52-54 seats.

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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

“Trump, Biden, the Pandemic and the Polls”

“Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980”

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

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Ray Keating is a columnist, novelist, economist, podcaster and entrepreneur. You can order his new book Behind Enemy Lines: Conservative Communiques from Left-Wing New York from Amazon or signed books at RayKeatingOnline.com. His other recent nonfiction book is Free Trade Rocks! 10 Points on International Trade Everyone Should Know. The views expressed here are his own – after all, no one else should be held responsible for this stuff, right?

Pre-order the forthcoming Vatican Shadows: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel. Signed books at https://raykeatingonline.com/products/vaticanshadows and the Kindle Edition at https://www.amazon.com/dp/B08L1HLRP3

Also, choose your 2021 TO DO List planner today, and enjoy the pre-order sale! Perfect for you and as Christmas gifts. Choose between The Lutheran Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, The Film Buff’s Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution, and The Disney Planner 2021: The TO DO List Solution. Get more information at https://raykeatingonline.com/t/todolistsolutionplanners

Keating’s latest novel is The Traitor: A Pastor Stephen Grant Novel, which is the 12thbook in the series. The best way to fully enjoy Ray Keating’s Pastor Stephen Grant thrillers and mysteries is to join the Pastor Stephen Grant Fellowship! For the BEST VALUE, consider the Book of the Month Club. Check it all out at https://www.patreon.com/pastorstephengrantfellowship

Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Sunday, November 1, 2020

Trump, Biden, the Pandemic and the Polls

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – November 1, 2020

If you think this long, exhausting, painful and often-ridiculous presidential campaign between President Donald Trump and former Vice President Joe Biden – two crazy, unsavory old guys – is going to be over on Tuesday night, well, I hope you’re right. But don’t be surprised if we don’t get a final call on the race until Thursday.

It also pays to keep in mind that when the COVID-19 pandemic hit the U.S., the task before President Donald Trump wasn’t that hard. Well, it wouldn’t have been hard for almost anyone other than Mr. Trump.

The message should have been straightforward and simple. It should have gone something like this: “My fellow Americans, we need to come together to beat this pandemic. We need to care, support and look out for each other. We can do that by listening to the medical community; and by taking common sense precautions, like wearing masks and practicing social distancing. As best as we can in these troubled time, we need to support the small businesses who are the backbone of our economy. We need to show our appreciation for the people who are on the frontlines caring for others, and for those who are working hard to find effective vaccines and therapeutics. We can find strength from our respective faith communities. We need to pray for each other and for our country. The strength of this nation and our people will shine through. God bless you, and God bless America.”

If that were the consistent message from the president, as opposed to bizarre, self-promoting, conflicting, self-absorbed, dishonest, conspiracy-dabbling rants, the polls heading into Election Day likely would be quite different. After all, Americans usually aren’t too keen on changing horses in the middle of an emergency, unless that horse is erratic and cannot be trusted. For good measure, it pays to be reminded that when a president runs for re-election, the race overwhelmingly is about that incumbent.

Given these realities, what are we looking at in terms of the polls heading into this Tuesday, with the understanding that this is an unprecedented election with vast numbers -some 93 million people – having voted already?

The national polling continues to show former Vice President Joe Biden holding a rather stunning lead over President Trump. The latest polls put Biden up by 5 to 12 percentage points, with the polling averages putting Biden’s lead in the 7-to-9 points range, with Biden earning 51 percent to 52 percent of the vote. When a candidate scores about the 50 percent mark, and has a lead that large, it spells big trouble for the opponent.

But we need, of course, given what happened in 2016, to look at the presidential race in state-by-state contests, with the outcome resting in the Electoral College. So, let’s take a final look at the battleground states.

Arizona (11 electoral votes). The race is an effective dead heat, with Biden holding a slight lead.

Florida (29 electoral votes). Florida also falls into the toss-up category, with Biden, again, holding the slight edge.

Michigan (16 electoral votes). Biden holds a healthy lead in the polls – with the poll average putting him up by about eight points. Plus, Biden is pulling in above 50 percent in most polls.

Minnesota (10 electoral votes). Trump has been campaigning in the state, and as he does, the polls seem to pushing further in favor of Biden. The former vice president holds a nine-point lead in the poll average, and is coming in above 50 percent.

North Carolina (15 electoral votes). The state is an effective dead heat. While Biden holds a slight lead in the polling average, the latest polls are a mix of Trump or Biden being slightly ahead.

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes). The polling average has Biden up by five points and coming in above 50 percent of the vote. But the race remains tight.

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes). Biden holds a solid lead of eight points among the polling average, and he is consistently running above 50 percent of those polled.

Ohio (18 electoral votes). Ohio is a toss-up, with Biden showing a slight move up. But this race is a straight-up tie.

Iowa (6 electoral votes). Iowa remains an effective dead heat, with Trump holding the slightest edge.

Georgia (16 electoral votes). Georgia is a dead heat – amazing given how Republican this state has been.

Nevada (6 electoral votes). The polling average puts Biden up by four points in Nevada. And he has held a consistent lead. But this is another tight race.

Texas (38 electoral votes). In this weird year, Texas, another traditional Republican state, remains a dead heat, with some polls putting Trump up slightly and others Biden. (See my take on Texas apparently going Purple.)

My prediction puts Biden at 342 Electoral College votes, with 270 needed to win. In a Blue wave scenario, that tally could go as high as 393.

No matter the outcome, like 2016, one gets the feeling that this is yet another election in which many people are voting against a candidate, rather than for one. In the end, perhaps most troubling is the unfortunate reality that whoever wins will present far more problems and negatives for the nation – though in quite different ways – rather than solutions or positives.

By the way, if anyone cares, I’ll be voting the same way I did in 2016, that is, writing in Ben Sasse for president.

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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

“Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980”

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

“Applaud, Don’t Attack, Robinhood”

“Sports Are Back But Americans Aren’t Happy”

“Should We Take Our Ball and Go Home When Pro Athletes Disagree with Us?”

“‘Greyhound’ Ranks as Strong Storytelling – Even on a Smaller Screen”

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Also, tune in to Ray Keating’s podcasts – the PRESS CLUB C Podcast and the Free Enterprise in Three Minutes Podcast

Check out Ray Keating’s Disney news and entertainment site at www.DisneyBizJournal.com.

Thursday, October 29, 2020

Justin Bieber, Chance the Rapper and Dante? In the Tradition of Christian Art

by David Keating

The Keating Files – October 29, 2020

My wife and I recently sat down to watch an episode of Saturday Night Live. Normally, I don’t bother to tune in unless there is a guest that I particularly enjoy, but with an election growing ever closer, I thought there might be some amusing parody or commentary on the state of American politics. What we got instead was much different.

The musical guest for October 17, 2020, was none other than Justin Bieber. I admit, I was pretty unfamiliar with his music as well as his personal transformation that he has apparently undergone. My knowledge of his music was pretty much limited to his kitschy, teen-focused bops from the early 2010s. Imagine my surprise when I saw someone far removed from that pop star of yesteryear appear on my television screen. Bieber was looking older, was adorned with more tattoos compared to last time I had tuned into his songs, and had a far more sincere focus in the song he performed for the audience.

Each musical guest has the opportunity to design the soundstage from which he or she will perform. This week’s musical guest had designed the stage to be brimming with foliage on either side of the stage, and, above the stage was placed an enormous neon cross. I wasn’t sure how much to read into this as there are artists from time to time who use religious imagery to simply heighten or boost their own image or sense of gravitas in their performance. But then came the lyrics:

I hear a lot about sinners

Don't think that I'll be a saint

But I might go down to the river, uh

'Cause the way that the sky opens up when we touch

Yeah, it's makin' me say

That the way you hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me

Feels so holy, holy, holy, holy, holy

On God

Runnin' to the altar like a track star

Can't wait another second

'Cause the way you hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me, hold me

Feels so holy

Again, talk about surprising. That’s about as powerful a testimony as one can get on SNL or from the pop genre in general. About midway through the song, the musical guest brought on a guest of his own, Chance the Rapper, who sang these lyrics:

I wanna honor, wanna honor you

Bride's groom, I'm my father's child

I know when the son takes the first steps, the Father's proud

If you make it to the water He'll part the clouds

I know He made you a snack like Oscar Proud

Suffer it to be so now gotta clean it up

Formalize the union in communion He can trust

I know I ain't leavin' you like I know He ain't leavin' us

I know we believe in God and I know God believes in us

Chance the Rapper has been very vocal about his own journey in reclaiming his Christian roots. He cites his faith as something that allowed him to get his life on track and quit smoking. But, beyond just clean living, I would argue listeners are getting to see a side of Christianity and Christian testimony that we don’t see discussed all that much in our culture. I would argue that Christianity actually empowers artists, through the faith-based tradition of Christian art and music, to give voice and a vocabulary to a transcendent kind of love.

It isn’t just Chance the Rapper or Justin Bieber who are discovering something unique and life-changing about the Gospel, nor is it just the two of them who are seeking to put their faith into their music. Just recently, Kanye West captured headlines when he released 2019’s Jesus is King. Paired with Jesus is King, Kanye West has also been holding Sunday spiritual revivals known as his “Sunday Service” events.

To many Christians, especially mainstream Protestants and evangelicals, this seems surprising and even a little confusing. To be sure, the version of Christianity presented by West and Bieber looks different. Most of our sanctuaries aren’t adorned with neon crosses or held outdoors with adoring fans looking on.

However, it seems that these artists are making a logical progression in their music.

What do I mean by this? Much of Chance the Rapper, Justin Bieber, and Kanye West’s work has focused on themes surrounding love, beauty, and the pursuit of that beauty. If we’re being honest looking at some of their past releases, we can see that the pursuit of beauty has often worked itself out in selfish ways, valuing sexuality above all else. But people who are interested in following the pursuit of the good as well as the beautiful know that love is never left at just desire. Instead, love pursues something deeper than that.

It may sound ridiculous, but I think these artists of today actually find themselves in a Christian tradition that goes back to Dante at the very least. Dante too pursued the beautiful and lost his object of adoration at a very young age. Having lost this woman whom he loved, Beatrice, Dante finds himself lost within a “dark forest” of a midlife crisis. What Dante finds is that he discovers more and more about that love he bore for Beatrice was actually pointing toward something far greater. Dante eventually understands that the love of something beautiful (Beatrice) actually drew him toward contemplation of the source of that which is good and beautiful, which is the life of God.

Beatrice pointed Dante toward "the Love that moves the sun, the moon, and the other stars” (Paradiso, XXXIII). Is that a little sentimental and schmaltzy? Sure. But, love often is. And the funny thing is, it doesn’t sound that far off from Justin Bieber’s confession that, “the way you hold me feels so holy.” My hope is that all of these artists continue to dive deep into their faith as so many other Christian artists have throughout the centuries as they embrace the divine love of God, which empowers the love we have for one another.

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The Reverend David Keating is pastor at St. John’s Lutheran Church in Curtis, Nebraska.

Previously by Pastor Keating…

“Faith and Family in Fargo”

“Death and Resurrection in Game of Thrones”

“Greta Gerwig’s Church Nostalgia: Why Does Hollywood Miss Christianity?”

“Interstellar: Love, Time, and Space”

“Mad Men - What is Happiness? Don Draper and St. Augustine”

“Zack Snyder’s Messy Super-Jesus”

“Short Message: How Do, or Should, Christians Witness?”

“Amazon’s ‘The Boys’ - Does Christianity Have a Culture Problem?”

“Reflecting on 9/11: Why Do Bad Things Happen to Good People?”

Saturday, October 24, 2020

Get Serious on Polling: No, Reagan Really Didn’t Trail Carter in 1980

by Ray Keating

The Keating Files – October 24, 2020

Politics is prone to people fooling themselves. Poll watching can become part of this self-deception when it degrades into highlighting polls that favor your candidate, and tossing aside polls that favor the other guy or gal. Fooling oneself also becomes evident when history is twisted to fit a preferred political narrative.

This phenomenon infects many Trump supporters this year in three particular ways.

First, highlighting some polls and ignoring others is a choice that seems to be running rampant among Trump supporters. Why? With Election Day only ten days away, the national polls have President Donald Trump trailing former Vice President Joe Biden by significant numbers.

As a race comes down to the end, if one is looking at polling in a serious way, then the key is to watch averages of recent polls, rather than grabbing that one poll that reflects what you want to happen.

Looking at averages, Biden leads Trump right now by 8-9 percentage points. That’s a daunting deficit for the president, especially at this late point in the race.

The second mistake when watching political polls has to do with misinterpreting history. Many Trump supporters, for example, have latched onto the idea that the polls in 2016 were dead wrong, so they will be this year, too. In reality, the national polls in 2016 were correct, as Hillary Clinton won the popular vote over Donald Trump by 48.0 percent to 45.9 percent. Factor in the margins of error present in all polling, and the national polls were pretty much spot on.

The problem in 2016 came with state polls in three states, and those states broke unexpectedly and very narrowly for Trump, gaining him the White House, i.e., Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Taking note of these states this year, the task for the president remains formidable. Biden holds solid leads, again, looking at poll averages, in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

Misinterpreting history also is the third problem this year. There’s a great deal of talk about how Ronald Reagan was trailing Jimmy Carter in 1980, but then the race broke late for Reagan, after the last presidential debate, and he went on to a big win.

Yes, Reagan did win big in 1980 (thankfully!). However, when you look at the polls in total, Reagan really hadn’t been trailing Carter since May of that year. Yes, the race tightened and widened over those subsequent five-plus months, and a poll here and there put Carter up, but Reagan never fell behind when looking at the polls in full.

Consider the following chart presented in a 2012 analysis. Eight years ago, Romney folks also were grasping at the idea of a late comeback by Reagan.

As the author, John Sides, noted: “ The plot shows … the ebbing of Carter’s poll standing throughout 1980. Indeed, Reagan didn’t need his convention bump — which he certainly got — to put him in the lead. The Democratic convention helped erode Reagan’s lead but it never closed it altogether.”

So, where does the Reagan story come from? Gallup, actually. Their polling before the last Carter-Reagan debate (held on October 28) put Carter up by 8 points, but that was among registered voters. The same poll had Carter up by only 3 points (within the margin of error) among likely voters, which is the more substantive polling measure. And again, this was one poll, ignoring the full polling picture at the time.

Can the polls be wrong? Of course. But it’s the exception. In the end, it’s about who comes out to vote. And that’s part of what pollsters try to figure out. But outside of an agenda-driven survey here and there, polling data is not the arbitrary, manipulative tool that it often gets labeled as – especially by those who happen to be trailing in the polls.

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Recent and Related Columns by Ray Keating…

“Stop Looking at the Unemployment Rate: The New York Example”

“Is Trump Toast?”

“Is Trump Turning Texas Purple?”

“A Flood of Bad Economics on Tech and Immigration”

“Polls Before the Dreaded Presidential Debates”

“Voting Your Conscience Isn’t Wasting Your Vote”

“Character-Rich Sci-Fi: Take the Netflix Journey with ‘Away’”

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